The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Abstracts:
The Central Bank is the backbone of the banking system as a whole, and in order to maintain the banking system, one of the most important functions that the Central Bank performs is the function of supervising and controlling banks, with several tools and methods, and one of the most important of these tools is its creation of the function of a compliance observer, which obligated commercial banks to appoint a person in A bank that performs this function according to certain conditions and granting it some powers that would build a sound and compliant banking system. The function of the compliance observer is to follow up on the bank’s compliance with the instructions and decisions issued by
... Show MoreViolence is one of the most serious threats facing societies because it affects their internal structure and threatens the security and stability of society. It is classified as one of the types of security crises that are emerging in Arab and Islamic societies in particular, and in most countries of the world in general.
The threat of this crisis is increasing. Terrorism is considered as one of the most serious aspects of that all the countries of the world, currently, suffer from. The terrorism has begun to penetrate deep into society in one way or another starting from the Second World War, which led to the emergence of leftist movements in Western Europe, Japan, France, Italy and other countries as a result of emerging ideas
... Show MoreThis research was designed to study effect of performance appraisal dimensions on organizational confidence.
Asset completion questionnaire was used to collect data of this research from a random simple represent forty employees who works in Iraqi Oil ministry. The main result of this research was positive relations and the effect between performance appraisal and organizational confidence. The research contains some conclusions, the main of it is unimplemented the performance appraisal results in the policies of employees in the ministry and it work in classic methods incentives and training.
The important recommendations must doing to achieve integrating between the result of pe
... Show MoreThe main focus of research is on how to achieve the internal and external dimensions of corporate social responsibility through human resources management strategies, which is a major of research aimed. The main problem of this research was confirmed, which confirms that there is an unclear role for social responsibility, lack of human resources management strategies, and ambiguity of roles in the municipality under study. The diagnose of the problem and determining the gap between the internal and external dimensions of social responsibility and human resources management was identified, which attacked the researcher's attention to navigate in this subject, look for the reasons for the gaps and try to reduce them. The case study
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The aim of the study is to diagnose the level and nature of the relationship between cognitive interactions, cognitive ignorance and the achievement of strategic excellence). The aim of this is to explore theoretical philosophy and intellectual implications of these variables, and, then test the correlation and impact relationships and their feasibility in the application environment, which was formed from the seven directorates in the Ministry of Education. The sample of the study was determined by the directors, their assistants, and the department directors. The sample number is (130). The importance of the study is to come out with a philosophical basis for the nature of the variables, based on an app
... Show MoreThis research discusses one of the most important means of reducing corruption in public sector companies and government departments, a relationship of cooperation and coordination between the external auditor and internal auditor, in the light of ISA (610), the recommendations of the International Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions (INTOSAI) and the National Strategy to combat corruption. The research was based on two assumptions: the first was weak relationship of cooperation and coordination between the external auditor and internal auditor leads to weakne
... Show MorePraise be to God, Lord of the worlds, and peace and blessings be upon our master Muhammad and his family and companions as follows:
For God Almighty has swapped for every age a group of religious scholars who give news to the narrators, so that they can lie against the Sunnah of the Mustafa, who is among those who memorized Ibn Al-Mulqin, as he followed the ruler in his book Al-Badr Al-Munir in the Hadith of Al-Sharh Al-Kabeer, and our research included two topics, which we explained in the first topic: The sequels in which the teacher's son Al-Malqin disagreed, and we discussed in the second topic: the followings in which Ibn Al-Malqin agreed to rule.
This research included important results, th
Iraqi conventional gasoline characterized by its low octane number not exceed 82 and high lead and sulfur content. In this paper tri-component or ternary, blends of gasoline, ethanol, and methanol presented as an alternative fuel for Iraqi conventional gasoline. The study conducted by using GEM blend that equals E85 blend in octane rating. The used GEM selected from Turner, 2010 collection. G37 E20 M43 (37% gasoline + 20% ethanol+ 43% methanol) was chosen as GEM in present study. This blend used in multi-cylinder Mercedes engine, and the engine performance, and emitted emissions compared with that produced by a gasoline engine.
The results show that this blend can formulate with available Iraqi pro
... Show MoreThe current study is designed to achieve the goal of early detection of heart disease because it is the main risk of death. Some biomarkers were measured as well as the percentage of the effect of certain risk factors in people with myocardial infarction and heart failure. The study included 40 serum samples from people with heart disease. The effectiveness of the creatine kinase (CK-MB), as well as its temporal and albumin effects, as well as sodium ions in people with myocardial infarction and heart failure, were compared with the control group. as shown below:
-The first group consisted of 25 blood samples from people with myocardial infarction and 15 serum samples from people with heart failure. Blood
... Show MoreFour Co(II), (C1); Ni(II), (C2); Cu(II), (C3) and Zn(II), (C4) chelates have been synthesized with 1-(4-((2-amino- 5‑methoxy)diazenyl)phenyl)ethanone ligand (L). The produced compounds have been identified by using spectral studies, elemental analysis (C.H.N.O), conductivity and magnetic properties. The produced metal chelates were studied using molar ratio as well as sequences contrast types. Rate of concentration (1 ×10 4 - 3 ×10 4 Mol/L) sequence Beer’s law. Compound solutions have been noticed height molar absorptivity. The free of ligand and metal chelates had been applied as disperse dyes on cotton fabrics. Furthermore, the antibacterial activity of the produced compounds against various bacteria had been investigated. F
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