The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
This study presents a mathematical model describing the interaction of gut bacteria in the participation of probiotics and antibiotics, assuming that some good bacteria become harmful through mutations due to antibiotic exposure. The qualitative analysis exposes twelve equilibrium points, such as a good-bacteria equilibrium, a bad-bacteria equilibrium, and a coexisting endemic equilibrium in which both bacteria exist while being exposed to antibiotics. The theory of the Sotomayor theorem is applied to study the local bifurcation around all possible equilibrium points. It’s noticed that the transcritical and saddle-node bifurcation could occur near some of the system’s equilibrium points, while pitchfork bifurcation cannot be accrued at
... Show MoreThis study tries to clear the correlation and association between asthma, obesity and leptin levels. Also it will work to indicate the main risk factors which play role in the elevation of leptin level within asthmatic patients. This is a case control study conducted on (38) asthmatic patients and (20) healthy control who were closely similar by age, gender and BMI. The main statistical tests used were student t test, linear regression test and correlation test. Significance was set at P < 0.05. Sampling method used for this study was convenience sampling method. The main results of this study show a significant association and positive correlation between age (old age ≥ 40 ye
... Show MoreDiarrhea is an important public health problem worldwide, several causes associated with diarrhea especially in population live under poverty and unsafe water use. Different methods are available and use in diagnosis. This study was carried out to compare of various techniques for Giardia lamblia detection and study the association with E coil and Shigella in patients with diarrhea. A total of 100 children with diarrhoea were enrolled into the study, 57 were males and 43 were females, aged from 2 months -16 years were attendant to AL-Imamin AL-Kadhimin Medical City, during the period from May 2014 to February 2015. Stool samples were collected and analysed for Giardia lamblia
... Show MoreCancer stay to be one of the leading causes of death throughout the world due to a limited success to use treatments. The new synthesized metal complexes with formula: [Ni L2 (H2O)2]. 2.5 E t OH and [Cd L2]. ½ H2O Where L = Bis [ 5 – ( P – nitrophenyl ) - 4 – phenyl 1 , 2 , 4 – trazol – 3 – dithiocarbamato hydrazide ] and the aqueous extract of Teucrium polium L.(TP) plant (Ja,adahin Arabic) were examined against growth cells of hepatocellular Carcinoma cell Line ( HeP2 ). The cytotoxicity assay of cancer cell line was used for determination of inhibition rate with three concentrations; (62.5, 105 and 250 µg /200µl). The aqueous extract of TP plant induced death of cancer cells by significant elevation of the inhib
... Show MoreThe linear instability and nonlinear stability analyses are performed for the model of bidispersive local thermal non-equilibrium flow. The effect of local thermal non-equilibrium on the onset of convection in a bidispersive porous medium of Darcy type is investigated. The temperatures in the macropores and micropores are allowed to be different. The effects of various interaction parameters on the stability of the system are discussed. In particular, the effects of the porosity modified conductivity ratio parameters, and , with the int
... Show MoreBackground: EBV infection in tissue micro-environment is challenged by the precisely regulated survivaland apoptosis mechanisms. Abnormal bcl-2 proto-oncogene expression in colonic carcinomas allowsaccumulation and propagation of these genetically altered cells.Objective: To analyze the relevant concordance of BCL-2 gene , EBNA1 s and LMP-1-EBV expression inissues from a group of Iraqi patients with colonic adenocarcinomas.Patients and Methods: One hundred (100) tissue biopsies, belonged to (40) patients with colorectalcancers, (40) patients with benign colon tumors, and (20) apparently normal colorectal control tissues,were enrolled in this study. The detection of EBNA1 s and LMP-1-EBV as well as BCL-2 was done byimmunohistochemist
... Show MoreAn indirectly method is used to determine hydrogen peroxide. The method based on oxidation of chromium (III) ion by hydrogen peroxide in basic medium to form chromate ion which react with barium (II) ion to produce a yellow precipitate (BaCrO4). Under the optimum established conditions, the linear range of 0.50-25.00 mmol L-1 along with correlation coefficient (r) of 0.9992, Limit of detection (LOD) 0.68 μg / 100 μL, precision expressed as relative standard deviation for six replication measurements at 5.0 mmol.L-1 H2O2 of less than 2% were obtained for hydrogen peroxide. The developed method was successfully applied for the estimation of H2O2 in three pharmaceuticals preparation of different companies using continuous flow injection o
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