The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Abstract:
Robust statistics Known as, resistance to errors caused by deviation from the stability hypotheses of the statistical operations (Reasonable, Approximately Met, Asymptotically Unbiased, Reasonably Small Bias, Efficient ) in the data selected in a wide range of probability distributions whether they follow a normal distribution or a mixture of other distributions deviations different standard .
power spectrum function lead to, President role in the analysis of Stationary random processes, form stable random variables organized according to time, may be discrete random variables or continuous. It can be described by measuring its total capacity as function in frequency.
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In this research, estimated the reliability of water system network in Baghdad was done. to assess its performance during a specific period. a fault tree through static and dynamic gates was belt and these gates represent logical relationships between the main events in the network and analyzed using dynamic Bayesian networks . As it has been applied Dynamic Bayesian networks estimate reliability by translating dynamic fault tree to Dynamic Bayesian networks and reliability of the system appreciated. As was the potential for the expense of each phase of the network for each gate . Because there are two parts to the Dynamic Bayesian networks and two part of gate (AND), which includes the three basic units of the
... Show MoreThe research aimed at measuring the compatibility of Big date with the organizational Ambidexterity dimensions of the Asia cell Mobile telecommunications company in Iraq in order to determine the possibility of adoption of Big data Triple as a approach to achieve organizational Ambidexterity.
The study adopted the descriptive analytical approach to collect and analyze the data collected by the questionnaire tool developed on the Likert scale After a comprehensive review of the literature related to the two basic study dimensions, the data has been subjected to many statistical treatments in accordance with res
... Show MoreThe research aims to a statement of specificity of the Controller of (academic achievement, specialty, job title, length of service, Gender) and its impact on performance, Through a proposed appraisal form includes three main axes and each axis including several specialized elements in the supervisory work in form (check list). as is the importance of research to enable officials of oversight bodies financial identify and diagnose performance Controller through what has this observer of the process of scientific properties when performing supervisory work. Be summarized problem of the research that the lack of regulatory institution with the Controller interesting in terms of the necessary characteristics and requirements and inv
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The research focuses on the key issue concerning the use of the best ways to test the financial stability in the banking sector, considering that financial stability cannot be achieved unless the financial sector in general and the banking sector in particular are able to perform its key role in addressing the economic and social development requirements, under the laws and regulations that control banking sector , as the only way that increases its ability to deal with any risks or negative effects experienced by banks and other financial institutions. The research goal is to evaluate the stability of the banking system in Iraq, through the use of a set of econometrics an
... Show MoreThe use of Conservatism significant impacts on the financial statements and thus on financial reporting which is produced by these lists so Rate Some of the professionals that the principle of accounting while Rate of others as a constraint, and brought this category based on the uses of this restriction sometimes used the accountant this restriction and especially with the uncertainties in the Sometimes it may collide with some of the cases in which the accountant may be forced to leave in custody as a result of emergence of economic events that gave rise to rights or future commitments should be disclosed.
The emergence in custody mainly was due to the uncertainty and its essence is to report on a
... Show MoreIn this manuscript, the effect of substituting strontium with barium on the structural properties of Tl0.8Ni0.2Sr2-xBrxCa2Cu3O9-δcompound with x= 0, 0.2, 0.4, have been studied. Samples were prepared using solid state reaction technique, suitable oxides alternatives of Pb2O3, CaO, BaO and CuO with 99.99% purity as raw materials and then mixed. They were prepared in the form of discs with a diameter of 1.5 cm and a thickness of (0.2-0.3) cm under pressures 7 tons / cm2, and the samples were sintered at a constant temperature o
... Show MoreThe investor needs to a clear strategy for the purpose of access to the financial market, that is, has a plan to increase The share of the profits thinking entrepreneur and new, and highlights the importance of this in that it sets for the investor when it goes to the market, and when it comes out of it, and at what price to buy or sell the stock, and what is the the amount of money it starts. Fortunately, he does not need to invent his own investment strategy, because over the years the development of effective methods of buying and selling, and once you understand how to work these methods investor can choose the most appropriate methods and adapted image that fit his style investment .
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... Show MoreThe research deals with the concept of a New Urbanism as an urban development strategy in the suburbs of cities or in its centers that are affected by pedestrian-oriented design and the possibility of walking, as well as integrating economic classes through the diversity of housing and its costs, and this works to facilitate access to jobs and services while providing more diverse neighborhoods and reducing the use of cars , As designing separate houses in the suburbs and increasing car trips poses a threat to the environment and the quality of urban life, and thus the new urban provides a good strategy for developing
... Show MoreOne of the most important elements of achieving food security is livestock, which is an essential element in the agricultural sector, and is one of the state support sectors. Animal production (sheep) ranked an important position in this sector due to the economic advantages that are available when rearing. Moreover, the success and development of sheep breeding depend on several factors, including financial return and achieving profitability. The study aims to identify the phenomenon size of random slaughter as a problem, which spread in Baghdad and its causes and the factors that influencing its development. As well as, the possibility of applying the idea of amobile slaughterhouse to reduce this phenomen
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