The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Abstract
The net profit reported in the annual financial statements of the companies listed in the financial markets, is considered one of the Sources of information relied upon by users of accounting information in making their investment decisions. At the same time be relied upon in calculating the bonus (Incentives) granted to management, therefore the management of companies to manipulate those numbers in order to increase those bonuses associated to earnings, This practices are called earnings management practices. the manipulation in the figures of earnings by management will mislead the users of financial statements who depend on reported earnings in their deci
... Show MoreIn this paper the process of metal ions extraction (Zn(II) and Cu(II)) was studied in PEG-KCl aqueous two phase system was investigated without using an extracting agent. The experimental runs were performance at constant temperature (25 oC), constant mixing time (30 min), and constant PH of the solution (about 3). The effect of KCl salt concentration (from 10% to 25%), volumetric phase ratio of PEG solution to KCl solution (from 0.5 to 2), and the initial metal ion concentration (from 0.25 ml to 2 ml of 1 gm/L solution) were investigated on the percent extraction of Zn(II) and Cu(II). The results indicated that the percent extraction of metal ions increase with increasing of salt concentration and phase ratio, and slightly de
... Show MoreThe study aims at identifying the reasons of weakness in the reading and writing of the primary schools' pupils at Baghdad governate in Iraq from the educational supervisors' point of view.
The community research contained the educational supervisors of Baghdad governate for the academic year 2011\2012, consisting of a total number of (344), of which (175) were males and (169) were females, where as the sample of the research consisted of (100) educational supervisors.
The researcher made up a questionnaire which is consisted of (78) items, distributed over different fields ( the curriculum and the book, methods of teaching, educational technology
... Show MoreThe objective of the current research is to identify the effective of the suggested instructional design that based on the teaching strategy for understanding in achievement for students(girls) of mathematics in the fifth grads secondary school. To achieve the research goal, the empirical research method is depended. In this method a realistic empirical design pre-test of two equivalent sets to determine the students’ grade is used. The following zero hypotheses is formulated “There is no statistical difference for the faction at 0.05 between the mean grad for the students of the empirical group who studied the subject using the Instructional design based on the teaching strategy for understanding and those who studied the same subje
... Show MoreSocial protection meets different aspects of the needs of vulnerable groups, such as the economic, health, education, and family relations and ties in the Iraqi society. This is because vulnerable groups have suffered from social and economic influences that have negative implications on the social reality as a whole. Poverty is a case in point, which paved the way to frequent setbacks that have led to social structure instability. Accordingly, the present study aims to examine the role and effect of the Net of Social Protection Program in equally distributing social protection to curb or mitigate any negative consequnces that might happen to the poor segments and vulnerable people, who are succeptible to shocks, such as: the orphans, un
... Show MoreThe main focus of research is on how to achieve the internal and external dimensions of corporate social responsibility through human resources management strategies, which is a major of research aimed. The main problem of this research was confirmed, which confirms that there is an unclear role for social responsibility, lack of human resources management strategies, and ambiguity of roles in the municipality under study. The diagnose of the problem and determining the gap between the internal and external dimensions of social responsibility and human resources management was identified, which attacked the researcher's attention to navigate in this subject, look for the reasons for the gaps and try to reduce them. The case study
... Show MoreThe research synthesis variables of competitive advantage and the mechanism achieved by focusing on knowledge abilities and strategic of the administrative leadership, and governments and the developed countries took the racing frantically and my destiny to invest more money and resources to development of wealth and human knowledge is so choice investment winner always and who Aaikhyee never, because God Almighty give humans the abilities of all other creatures and that these abilities varying from person to person, there is the problem of search provoking questions about the essence of what it's about research and both sides theoretical and field, the objective of this research
... Show MoreThe importance of media coverage in the war remains dependent on many indicators for its success, the most important is to have qualified reporters who carry the war news professionally. The idea of this research is to determine the role played by war correspondents working on Iraqi satellite channels during the war against ISIS.
The researcher has chosen ( 40 ) reporters those who was able to contact them and prepared a questionnaire for them to study their situations. Also, he chose an intentional sample from Baghdad audience on condition they should be informed by the performance of the reporters in the satellite channels applying the hypotheses of the theory of depending upon media.
The most important results reached by the re
Background: To evaluate the bony supports of the teeth adjacent to the area of cleft in patient with unilateral cleft lip and palate and to compare these measurements with the measurements of the same teeth in non-cleft side by using CBCT. Materials and methods: The CBCT scans of 30 patients having cleft lip( unilateral) and palate(unilateral), were analyzed and the measurements of the alveolar bony support for teeth that are adjacent to the cleft area were measured with those teeth located on opposite side (non- clef) side. For each tooth, the measurements will taken for the distance between the( cementoenamel junction) (CEJ) and the bony crest (AC) at the( buccal area) was measured and the thickness of the buccal plate At zero, one, tw
... Show MoreTransition metal complexes of Co(II) and Ni(II) with azo dye 3,5-dimethyl-2-(4-nitrophenylazo)-phenol derived from 4-nitoaniline and3,5-dimethylphenol were synthesized. Characterization of these compounds has been done on the basis of elemental analysis,electronic data, FT-IR,UV-Vis and 1 HNMR, as well as magnetic susceptibility and conductivity measurements. The nature of thecomplexes formed were studies following the mole ratio and continuous variation methods, Beer ' s law obeyed over a concentrationrange (1x10 -4 - 3x10 -4 M). High molar absorbtivity of the complex solutions were observed. From the analytical data, thestoichiomerty of the complexes has been found to be 1:2 (Metal:ligand). On the basis of physicochemical data tetrahedral
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