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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Molecular detection of the ability of Biosynthesized Titanium dioxide nanoparticles to curing some genes of virulence factors of Entamoeba histolytica
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The present study included the microscopic and molecular identification of Entamoeba histolytica by using specific primers to detect four virulence factors possessed by Entamoeba histolytica. Virulence factors included Active Cysteine proteinase, Galactose/N-acetyl-D-galactose-lectin, Amoeba pore C and Phospholipase. Titanium dioxide nanoparticles (TiO2NPs) were synthesized from Pseudomonas aeruginosa which producing Pyocyanin pigment as a reducing agent to form it. After that we studied the ability ofTiO2NPs to inhibit virulence factors production and curing the genes responsible for encoding them by using four different dose 2 ,3, 4, 6 mg/Kg and administered by intraperitoneal injection

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 04 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation of Air Pollution Tolerance Index (APTI) by two species of terrestrial plants in some stations within Babylon Province, Iraq
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This study deals with air pollution tolerance index (APTI) and anatomical variation in leaves of two species of terrestrial plants Ficus sp. and Conocarpus sp. that have bee commonly the separated along roadsides in many stations within Babylon province. APTI values of both species were less than 10 during study period which represented sensitivity of these plants to air pollution. There are Anatomical responses to pollution in the leaves of both studied species. Main adaptations included increased thickness of parenchyma cell walls with clear dark deposits in sections of Ficus sp. from sections of stations 2 and 4 which represent polluted stations. Conocarpus sp. main adaptation included stomata increased in density and decreased in size w

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 05 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Arab Statistical Union (jasu)
Using Quality Control and 6-Sigma to Determine The Quality of The Treated Wastewater Discharged From Some Water Purification Plants
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Publication Date
Mon Nov 01 2021
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Genetic Analysis by Using Partial Diallel Crossing of Maize In High Plant Densities (Estimation GCA, SCA and Some Genetic Parameters)
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Abstract<p>The experiment was carried out at the Field Crops Research Station, College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences - University of Baghdad in Jadiriyah, with the aim of evaluating the performance of partial diallel hybrids and inbred lines of maize and estimating general combining ability(GCA), specific combining ability (SCA) and some genetic parameters. The experiment was carried out in two seasons, spring and fall 2020. Eight inbred lines of maize were used in the study (BI9/834, BSW18, LW/5 L8/844, ZA17W194, Z117W, ZI17W9, ZI7W4), numbered (1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8), It was sowed in the spring season and entered into a cross-program according to a partial diallel crossing system to obtain tw</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Human Sport And Exercise - 2019 - Spring Conferences Of Sports Science
The effect of continuous training on myoglobin muscle and on some specific fitness elements and basic skills of badminton players
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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2023
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Effect of Irrigation Systems, Bio-Fertilizers and Polymers on some Growth Characteristics and Potato Production in Desert Soils, Karbala Governorate
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Two field experiments were conducted during the spring season 2020 in Karbala governorate to study the effect of irrigation systems, irrigation intervals, biofertilizers and polymers on some characteristics of vegetative growth and potato production. The results showed that there were significant differences in the values of the average plant height due to the effect of the double interference between the irrigation system and the improvers, The height of potato plant under any irrigation system was superior when adding conditioners compared to the control treatment, as it reached 48.56, 58.00 and 64.33cm when adding polymer, biofertilizer, and polymers+ biofertilizers, respectively compared with the control treatment of 44.64cm in the surf

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Arab Journal For Plant Protection
Effects of Aqueous and Alcoholic Extracts of Lemongrass, Cymbopogon citratus on Some Biological Aspects of the Fig Moth, Ephestia cautella
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Kamil, S.H. 2024. Effects of Aqueous and Alcoholic Extracts of Lemongrass, Cymbopogon citratus on Some Biological Aspects of the Fig Moth, Ephestia cautella. Arab Journal of Plant Protection, 42(3): 377-381. https://doi.org/10.22268/AJPP-001245 This study evaluated the effects of aqueous and ethanolic extracts of lemongrass on the third instar larvae of the date moth Ephestia cautella Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae). The results obtained showed that there were toxic effects of aqueous extract, which produced the highest mortality rate of 43.35% at 5% concentration72 hours after treatment, whereas the lowest mortality rate of 17% was obtained at 0.5% concentration, 72 hours after treatment. The LC50 was 0.082%. The results indicated

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Part-a-san-francisco-abstracts2019,acs
Part-A-San-Francisco-abstracts
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Synthesis and study liquid crystalline properties of novel Benzimidazol-8-hydroxyquinoline complexes by reaction of a-Chloro acetic acid with 3,3'-dimethylbiphenyl-4,4'-diamine in 10% aqueous sodium hydroxide to synthesized compound [I] then the later compound reacted with o-phenylenediamine in 4N Hydrochloric acid to synthesized compound N4,N4'-bis((1H-benzo[d]imidazol-2-yl)methyl)-3,3'-dimethyl-[1,1'-biphenyl]-4,4'-diamine =[II] . While the complexes [III],[IV],[V],[VI] and [VII] synthesized from reacted compound [II] , 8-hydroxyquinoline with metal(II) salts { M= Mn(II), Fe(II), Ni (II), Cu(II),and Zn(II)}. Newly synthesized compounds were characterized using melting points, FT-IR, UV-Vis spectra, and some of them 1H NMR spectroscopy. ma

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Nature as a holy book
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Nature and natural beauty have always been the source of inspiration for poets and mystics.  For them, nature is one of the most recurrent and celebrated themes. It is a significant symbol of the beauty, righteousness and freshness they are looking for. For religious and mystical poets, it is a reference to God, his beauty, and splendour. Comparing it with the scripture, Thomas Ryan, a Catholic priest and a mystical writer, says ''The Bible is the 'small book', the world of nature is the 'big book'. Both reveal the Creator.''1

     For Muslim mystics, God does exist everywhere as the Qur'an states:   ''Wherever (Whithersoever)  you turn, there is God's face” (Chapter (Surah): 2

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Advanced Research In Computer Engineering & Technology
Facial Emotion Recognition: A Survey
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Emotion could be expressed through unimodal social behaviour’s or bimodal or it could be expressed through multimodal. This survey describes the background of facial emotion recognition and surveys the emotion recognition using visual modality. Some publicly available datasets are covered for performance evaluation. A summary of some of the research efforts to classify emotion using visual modality for the last five years from 2013 to 2018 is given in a tabular form.

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