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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Technologies And Materials For Renewable Energy, Environment And Sustainability: Tmrees19gr
The influence of partial substation of antimony & lanthanum oxides on electrical and structural properties for the superconductor compound Bi2-xSbxBa2Ca2-yLayCu3O10+δ
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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of business incubators represented by the banking system in financing small and medium enterprises in Iraq for the period 2000-2010
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The process of transformation from the central economy to a free economy requires restructuring the economy according to a new economic philosophy that relies on activating the role of private economic activity in which private and medium-sized institutions occupy an essential axis for their active role in the economies of all countries, especially those countries that have directed towards the market mechanism and sector leadership. The special process of economic development and the role that commercial banks can play in advancing the financing of these projects by establishing specialized business incubators for financing.

What encouraged countries to pay attention to these institutions is the ease of

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The current research aims to identify the visual culture skills of students of the College of Education for Pure Sciences / Ibn Al-Haytham
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  • Identifying the visual culture skills of students of the College of Education for Pure Sciences / Ibn Al-Haytham.
  • Identifying the statistically significant differences in the visual culture skills of students of the College of Education for Pure Sciences / Ibn Al-Haytham according to the gender variable.
  • And the descriptive approach was used, due to its relevance to the nature of the research objective.

    To verify this, the visual culture skills test consisted of (22) items of the multiple choice type, where the (Koder Richardson 20) equation was applied to calculate the stability of the visual culture skills test. For the skill of writing

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 17 2021
Journal Name
Academic Journal Of Interdisciplinary Studies
Employees Retention Strategy and its Impact on Organizational Memory: An Exploratory Research for the opinion of Faculty Members at Private Colleges on Baghdad
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The research aims to determine the impact of employees’ retention strategy on organizational memory. This research is historical, descriptive, and analytical. The sample consists of 158 faculty members in five private colleges in Baghdad. The technique used to analyze the data is SEM (Structural Equation Modeling), and SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences). The research concludes that the employees retaining strategy plays a vital role in retaining employees and hence maintains organizational memory. The findings and recommendations of this research assure the administrations of private colleges that employees retention strategy play a vital role in retaining its employee and hence maintains organizational memory. T

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The investment Decision Making According to the Preliminary Feasibility Study for the 100-Bed Teaching Hospital - Service Sector in Diwaniya Governorate (Case Study)
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     The research aims to prepare a preliminary feasibility study that shows the importance of preliminary feasibility study in investment decision making, carrying out of the local demand of service provided in accordance with international standards and statement of investment opportunities available to the private sector in several investment methods. In order to reach the objectives of the study was adopted as a method of partial analysis at the level of economic unity through the study demand, supply, costs, economic and social profitability.

      The health sector in Iraq is one of the service sectors facing today a continuous deficiency

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Materials Science
Investigations on TiO2–NiO@In2O3 nanocomposite thin films (NCTFs) for gas sensing: synthesis, physical characterization, and detection of NO2 and H2S gas sensors
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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Controlled Release
Breast intraductal nanoformulations for treating ductal carcinoma in situ I: Exploring metal-ion complexation to slow ciclopirox release, enhance mammary persistence and efficacy
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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Materials Science: Materials In Electronics
Influence of cobalt doping on structural and optical properties of copper oxide expected as an inorganic hole transport layer for perovskite solar cell
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Publication Date
Thu Oct 31 2019
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Behavior Management of Children with Autism
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Background: Pervasive Developmental Disorder (PDD) is a term refers to the overarching group of conditions to which autism spectrum disorder (ASD) belongs .

Objective: This study was designed to determine the existing behavior of children with autism in dental sitting, the behavior improvements in recall dental visits and evaluate the improvement in oral hygiene with using specific visual pedagogy chart.

Type of the study: Cross-sectional study.

Methods: Forty children of both genders, ages ranged from 4 – 6 years having primary teeth only were selected whose medical history included a diagnosis

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2007
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Bacterial Infections Associated with Cutaneous Leishmaniasis
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Background:Oriental sore occurs mostly in the
mediteranian region , North Africa ,and the Middle East .
Rodents are the main reservoir for the parasite . The wet
type caused by L. major is rural and the dry type caused by
L. tropica is urban and humans are presumably the only
reservoir. Sand fly vectors are involved in all forms.
Objectives: This study aimed to show the most
important bacterial infections concomitant with cutaneous
leishmaniasis .
Methods; The study was performed on 75 patients (ages
1-50 years ) from both sexes were attending Skin Diseases
Department of Ramadi General Hospital during the period
extended from January to June 2000. These patients were
clinically diagnosed as patients

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