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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun May 10 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Characterization and Biological Activity of Some New Derivatives Derived from Sulfamethoxazole Compound: new derivatives from sulfamethoxazole drug.
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 A new series of Sulfamethoxazole derivatives was prepared and examined for antifibrinolytic and antimicrobial activities. Sulfamethoxazole derivatives bear heterocyclic moieties such as 1,3,4-thiadiazine {3},  pyrazolidine-3,5-diol {4} 6-hydroxy-1,3,4-thiadiazinane-2-thione {5} and [(3-methyl-5-oxo-4,5-dihydro-1H-pyrazol-4-yl)diazenyl] {8}. Their structures were elucidated by spectral methods (FT-IR, H1-NMR). Physical properties are also determined for all compound derivatives.  Recently prepared compounds were tested for their antimicrobial activity in the laboratory. Each screened compound showed good tendency to moderate antimicrobial activity.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Alterations in some Physiological and Inflammatory Markers in Iron-Deficient Obese Adults in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq
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Background: Iron homeostasis is crucial to many physiological functions in the human body, such as cellular activity, erythropoiesis, and the innate immune response. Iron deficiency anemia may occur from obesity's ability to disturb iron homeostasis. Obesity may be seen as a pre-inflammatory condition with mild, ongoing systemic inflammation. Additionally, an increase in hepcidin levels by chronic inflammation causes iron insufficiency in obese people. For this reason, this current experiment is designed to investigate the iron profile and some hematological and inflammatory parameters in obese adults in the Kurdistan region-Iraq.

Subjects and Methods: The cross-sectional study w

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 06 2017
Journal Name
Al-mustansiriyah Journal Of Science
Physiological and histological effects of (zinc and iron) oxide nanoparticles on some fertility parameters in female mice
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Nowadays nanoparticles have widespread application in various industriesbecause of their special and unique features, there are many studies in sideeffects of nanomaterial. This study done by 40 white female mice withevery other day intraperitoneally injection of low and high doses of both ofZnO kg of body weight) and FeOnanoparticles (5 and 40 mg/kg). After a 15 days period, the mice weresacrificed and blood samples were collected for hormone analysis, andtissue samples for morphometric studies.Statistical Analysis shows significant differences in LH, Estrogen,Progesterone hormone levels between groups, while there are insignificantdifferences in Follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level between thegroups compared with its level in

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Materials Today: Proceedings
Evaluation on processing parameter's effects on some mechanical properties of pure magnesium bulk prepared by powder metallurgy
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Publication Date
Tue Jul 10 2012
Journal Name
25-26 Sep Tikrit Journal For Pure Science Special Issue For The 2nd Scientific Conference
Effect of mycorrhiza Glumus mosseae and bacteria Bacillus polymyxa in some of physiological characteristics in Hordeum vulgare
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Publication Date
Sun Aug 06 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research
Prevalence Rate of Toxoplasmosis and its Effects on Some Liver Functions in Blood Samples of Volunteers' Students
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Recently, young people have shown a desire to keep cats as pets, despite being threatened with health problems including toxoplasmosis. Therefore, the current study was aimed to detect toxoplasmosis infections among of volunteers students as well as spreading health awareness among students and knowledge about the importance of this disease. Prevalence rate and effects of liver functions were tested by measured levels of Aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) enzymes while the OnSiteToxo IgG/IgM combo rapid test was used in the diagnosis of the disease. The blood samples were collected from 76 volunteers (35 male and 41 female). The results showed that, the total percentage of infections was 27.6% and all infect

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of Gamma Rays on Some Aspects of BiologicalPerformance of Callosobrchus maculatus (Fabricius)and Trogoderma granarium (Everts).
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The effect of gamma rays on males and females ofCallasobruchus maculatus and Trogoderma granarium which were irradiated as 1-3 days old adults was investigated. The results revealed that the percent egg hatch for both pests was zero ,and average number of egg (34.2,21.5) for both pests respectively where their males where irradiated with 0.18 kGy and mated with unirradiated females. While the percent of egg hatch and the average number of egg (zero,21,3) respectively when the females where irradiated with 0.18 and 0.15 kGy and mated to unirradiated males for C. maculatus and T. granarium respectively. Furthermore, the results showed that the percent of eggs hatch and average number of egg was ( zero,22.7) for C. maculatus when both sexes i

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 02 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determination the Concentration of the Radon in some Drinking Bottled Water in Baghdad using LR-115 Detector
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In the present study ten samples of bottled water from Baghdad conservative were taken to measure the concentration of radon gas by using nuclear track detector LR-115.The result obtained are varying from(0.033)to(0.007)pCi.l-1and these values are very low than the allowed limits (5) pCi.l-1, and specific activity from bottled water has been calculated which was vary from (0.00027)to(0.00126) Bq.l-1 and these values are very low than allowed limits (0.0123) Bq.l-1 that mean the bottled water was treated with good treatment to decrease the side effect of radon

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Saudi Chemical Society
Synthesis, characterization and comparative study the microbial activity of some heterocyclic compounds containing oxazole and benzothiazole moieties
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Publication Date
Sat Jan 16 2016
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Synthesis, Characterization And Biological Evaluation of New Schiff Bases Mixed Ligand Metal Complexes of Some Drug Substances
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