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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Precision of pachymetric measurements with Scheimpflug –Placido disc cornealTopography and comparison of these measurements with ultrasonic pachymetry
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Back ground: Several devices with different physical bases have been developed for the clinical measurement of corneal thickness, they classified into 4 categories: Scheimpflug photography based, Slit –Scanning topography, optical coherence tomography (OCT) based and ultrasound (US) based.Objective:To evaluatethe precision of the new Scheimpflug –Placido disc corneal topography in measurement of corneal thickness and to compare the measured values with that obtained by US pachymetry.Methods: Setting of this study is Lasik center in Eye Specialty Private Hospital. Baghdad. Iraq.Eyes of healthy subjects were examined with the Sirius topography.3 consecutive measurements of central (CCT)and thinnest (TCT) corneal thicknesses were obtain

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Medicinal And Chemical Sciences
Synthesis and Characterization with Antimicrobial Studies of mixed Curcumin Schiff Base–L-dopa with Divalent Cations Complexes
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In the present article, mixed ligand metal (II) complexes have been synthesized with Schiff base (1E, 5Z, 6E)-1,7 bis (4-hydroxy-3- methoxyphenyl)-5-(3-hydroxyphenyl) imino) hepta-1,6-dien-3-one derived from Curcumin and 3-aminophenol as primary ligand and L-dopa as a secondary ligand. The Schiff base act as bidentate and arrange to the metals through the azomethine (C=N) nitrogen and (C=O) oxygen atom. The mode of bonding of the Schiff base has been affirmed on the infrared by the UV-Visible, 1H, and 13C NMR spectroscopic techniques. The magnetic susceptibility and the UV-Vis data of the complexes propose octahedral geometry around the central metal ion. The information appears that the complexes have the structure of [L-M-(L-dopa)] system

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Scopus (4)
Scopus
Publication Date
Wed Apr 08 2020
Journal Name
Biochemical & Cellular Archives .
PURIFICATION OF RHODANESE (RHD) AND ITS ASSOCIATION WITH MDA AND PEROXYNITRITE IN PATIENTS WITH TYPE II DIABETES.
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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2020
Journal Name
Plant Archives
Correlation study of obestatin and progranulin with liver function enzyme in Iraqi females patients with colorectal cancer
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The second most commonly diagnosed cancer is colorectal cancer (CRC) is in female. The levels of progranulin, obestatin and liver enzymes including ALT, AST and ALP were measured in forty five sera in female patients suffering from CRC before chemotherapy initiation treatment as G1, G2 after first chemotherapy cycle and G3 after second chemotherapy cycle compared with thirty female as a healthy control G4. Results showed a high significant increased in progranulin concentration and a high significant decrease in obestatin in G2 than other groups. The correlation between progranulin and ALP was a significant negative (-ve) relation while obestatin with AST gave a significant positive (+ve) correlation in G. The results also showed non signif

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Scopus
Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The causal relationship between inflation and the volume of private sector deposits and the Amman Stock Exchange Index. (The case of Jordan for the period 1999-2017)
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        The study aims to show the correlation between inflation rates and the volume of private sector deposits in Jordan on one hand, and Amman Stock Exchange index for the period of 1999-2017. The study used the “Vector Auto Regression” model. Different types of tests are used such as: The “Johansen Co integration” test of joint integration, “Granger causality” test, the “Analysis of Variance Decomposition”, and “Impulse response Function” test.

The results showed there is a positive-one-way causal effect from Amman Stock Exchange index to inflation. Also, a one-way causal effect that comes from Amman Stock Exchange index to the size of private sec

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Revista Iberoamericana De PsicologÍa Del Ejercicio Y El Deporte
SPECIAL EXERCISES IN THE HIERARCHICAL OPPOSING TRAINING METHOD AND ITS EFFECT ON DEVELOPING PHYSICAL ABILITIES AND ACCURACY OF SOCCER SCORING FOR ADVANCED PLAYERS
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Scopus (1)
Scopus
Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2012
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Success rate of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention of Chronic Total Occlusion in Ibn Al-Baitar Hospital for cardiac surgery and Al-Nassyeria cardiac center
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Back ground: Chronic total occlusion (CTO) of coronary arteries remains one of the most challenging lesion subsets in interventional cardiology even with the development of medical devices and operator expertise. Successful revascularization results in improved in angina status ,increased exercise capacity and reduces the need for lat CABG surgery .
Objectives: This study sought to determine the overall procedural success rate of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for CTOs and to examine the relation between variables such as; patients’ characteristics, risk factors, lesion characteristics and procedural success rate.
Methods: In this study ,clinical and coronary angiography data of (80) patients with CTO who underwent PCI

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Publication Date
Sun May 02 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Rationalization of costs by using the tool of the quality function deployment: / applied research in the State Company for Textile and Leather Industries
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The research aims to apply one of the techniques of management accounting, which is the technique of the quality function deployment on the men's leather shoe product Model (79043) in the General Company for Textile and Leather Industries by determining the basic requirements of the customer and then designing the characteristics and specifications of the product according to the preferences of the customer in order to respond to the customer's voice in agreement With the characteristics and technical characteristics of the product, taking into account the products of the competing companies to achieve the maximum customer satisfaction, the highest quality and the lowest costs. Hence, the importance of research has emerged, which indicat

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 12 2024
Journal Name
Mustansiriyah Journal Of Sports Science
The impact of the use of numbered head and brainstorming strategies to learn handspring on the Vault table in artistic gymnastics for Men
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The aim of the study was to identify the use of the strategies of numbered heads and brainstorming in learning handspring on the Vault table in artistic gymnastics for Men for the third grade students in the collage of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, as well as to identify the best group among the three research groups (number of heads numbered,, brainstorming strategies And the traditional style group) to learn the skill under study. Using the experimental method, the research subject included the third grade students in the collage of Physical Education and Sports Sciences / University of Baghdad, and randomly by lot, 12 students were selected for each of the three research groups. The study consisted of the arithmetic mean

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Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Experimental Evaluation Use of Semifluidized Bed Adsorber for the Treatment of P-chlorophenol and O-cresol in Wastewater using Activated Carbon as Adsorbent
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In the present work the performance of semifluidized bed adsorber was evaluated for removal of phenolic compound from wastewater using commercial activated carbon as adsorbent. P-chlorophenol (4-Chlorophenol) and o-cresol (2-methylphenol) was selected as a phenolic compound for that purpose. The phenols percent removal, in term of breakthrough curves were studied as affected by hydrodynamics limitations which include minimum and maximum semifluidization velocities and packed bed formation in the column by varying various parameters such as inlet liquid superficial velocity (from Uminsf to 8Uminsf m/s), and retaining grid (sometimes referred to as adsorbent loading) to initial static bed height ratio (from 3-4.5). In

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