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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 23 2026
Journal Name
Technical University Of Munich
Conditions for Applying Public Private Partnership PPP in Iraq Infrastructure Projects Successfully
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Public private partnership PPP is a method to procure public projects in order to achieve additional value for money in terms of efficiency and quality of services. This thesis studies the concepts of PPP, advantages and disadvantages of PPP. In addition, current Iraq infrastructure projects situations and needs, as well as, some aspects relating to the Iraq’s construction market, legal and contract systems were discussed. A financial model was carried out and applied to a real-life case study project. Finally, a survey targeted researchers; public and private- sectors were applied.

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Advances In Mechanical Engineering
Using a spherical inverted pendulum and statokinesigram for modeling and evaluating quiet standing posture
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This paper proposes a new approach to model and analyze erect posture, based on a spherical inverted pendulum which is used to mimic the body posture. The pendulum oscillates in two directions, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], from which the mathematical model was derived and two torque components in oscillation directions were introduced. They are estimated using stabilometric data acquired by a foot pressure mapping system. The model was quantitatively investigated using data from 19 participants, who were first were classified into three groups, according to the foot arch-index. Stabilometric data were then collected and fed into the model to estimate the torque’s components. The components were statistically proce

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Case Studies In Chemical And Environmental Engineering
Kinetic modeling of a solar photo-electro-Fenton process for treating petroleum refinery wastewater
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Publication Date
Tue Oct 19 2021
Journal Name
Biochem
A Neuro-Fuzzy Technique for the Modeling of β-Glucosidase Activity from Agaricus bisporus
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This paper proposes a neuro-fuzzy system to model β-glucosidase activity based on the reaction’s pH level and temperature. The developed fuzzy inference system includes two input variables (pH level and temperature) and one output (enzyme activity). The multi-input fuzzy inference system was developed in two stages: first, developing a single input-single output fuzzy inference system for each input variable (pH, temperature) separately, using the robust adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) approach. The neural network learning techniques were used to tune the membership functions based on previously published experimental data for β-glucosidase. Second, each input’s optimized membership functions from the ANF

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Hybrid Coefficient Decimation- Interpolation Based Reconfigurable Low Complexity Filter Bank for Cognitive Radio
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Non uniform channelization is a crucial task in cognitive radio receivers for obtaining separate channels from the digitized wideband input signal at different intervals of time. The two main requirements in the channelizer are reconfigurability and low complexity. In this paper, a reconfigurable architecture based on a combination of Improved Coefficient Decimation Method (ICDM) and Coefficient Interpolation Method (CIM) is proposed. The proposed Hybrid Coefficient Decimation-Interpolation Method (HCDIM) based filter bank (FB) is able to realize the same number of channels realized using (ICDM) but with a maximum decimation factor divided by the interpolation factor (L), which leads to less deterioration in stop band at

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
ZnO: MWCNT optical hybrid filter a promising nanomaterial for wastewater treatment and antimicrobial applications
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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2024
Journal Name
Partial Differential Equations In Applied Mathematics
A hybrid technique for solving fractional delay variational problems by the shifted Legendre polynomials
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This study presents a practical method for solving fractional order delay variational problems. The fractional derivative is given in the Caputo sense. The suggested approach is based on the Laplace transform and the shifted Legendre polynomials by approximating the candidate function by the shifted Legendre series with unknown coefficients yet to be determined. The proposed method converts the fractional order delay variational problem into a set of (n + 1) algebraic equations, where the solution to the resultant equation provides us the unknown coefficients of the terminated series that have been utilized to approximate the solution to the considered variational problem. Illustrative examples are given to show that the recommended appro

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 20 2026
Journal Name
International Journal Of Intelligent Engineering And Systems
A Robust Base-layer Design for Hierarchical IoT Intrusion Detection Using Hybrid Deep Learning
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The rapid development of Internet of Things (IoT) devices and their increasing numbers have caused a tremendous increase in network traffic and a wider range of cyber-attacks. This growing trend has complicated the detection process for traditional intrusion detection systems and heightened the challenges faced by these devices, such as imbalanced and large training data. This study presents a cohesive methodology of a series of intelligent techniques to prepare clean and balanced data for training the first (core) layer of a robust hierarchical intrusion detection system. The methodology was built by cleaning and compressing the data using an Autoencoder and preparing a strong latent space for balancing using a hybrid method that combines

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Structural Engineering
Standard Pushout Tests and Design Rules for a Bolted–Welded Hybrid Demountable Shear Connector
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A bolted–welded hybrid demountable shear connector for use in deconstructable steel–concrete composite buildings and bridges was proposed. The hybrid connector consisted of a partially threaded stud, which was welded on the flange of a steel section, and a machined steel tube with compatible geometry, which was bolted on the stud. Four standard pushout tests according to Eurocode 4 were carried out to assess the shear performance of the hybrid connector. The experimental results show that the initial stiffness, shear resistance, and slip capacity of the proposed connector were higher than those of traditional welded studs. The hybrid connector was a ductile connector, according to Eurocode 4, with slip capacity higher than 6 mm. A nonli

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 06 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Role of School Administration on Academic Achievement in Khartoum International Institute for Arabic language: A Practical Study
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School administration has an effective role in stimulating academic achievement, as it is the ideal regulation and activation of material and human power to achieve the goals of the educational process. This role has axes in the form of interests, aids, and specific procedures exercised by the school administration in improving the educational process, and assisting researchers in achieving the highest levels of academic achievement. This activation is achieved through stages of planning, organizing, coordinating, and evaluating.

To achieve the aims of this research, the researcher pursued the descriptive analytical approach, which is considered one of the most appropriate approaches to the nature of this type of research. The qu

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