Preferred Language
Articles
/
jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
...Show More Authors

Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

Crossref
View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Fri May 17 2024
Journal Name
Annals Of Applied Sport Science
Psychological Well-being and Its Relationship with the Functional Creativity of Female Professors of Gymnastics in the Colleges of Physical Education and Sports Sciences in Iraq
...Show More Authors

Background. Teaching quality in gymnastics is influenced by teachers' performance and attitudes, leading to increased functional creativity and psychological well-being. This, in turn, contributes to the success of the sports institution by enhancing the overall performance and overall well-being of the students. Objectives. The research aims to assess the psychological well-being and functional creativity of female gymnastics professors in Iraqi colleges of physical education and sports sciences, focusing on their level of well-being and the relationship between these factors. Methods. The researchers used a descriptive survey method to survey female gymnastics professors at 16 colleges in Iraq's physical education and sports science

... Show More
Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis and Characterization of Tripodal Tetradentate Ligand Type NS3 and its Complexes with Re(V), Ni(II), Cu(II), Zn(II), Cd(II), and Hg(II)
...Show More Authors

This work represents the preparation of the starting material, 3-chloro-2-oxo-1,4-dithiacyclohexane (S) using a new method. This material was reacted with, 4-phenylthiosemicarbazide to give (H3NS3) as a tetradentate ligand H3L. New complex of rhenium (V) with this ligand of the formula [ReO(L)] was prepared. New complexes of the general formula [M(HL)] of this ligand when reacted with some metal ions where: M = Ni(II), Cu(II), Cd(II), Zn(II), Hg(II) have been reported. The ligand and the complexes were characterized by infrared, ultraviolet–visible, mass, 1H nuclear magnetic resonance and atomic absorption spectroscopic techniques and by (HPLC), elemental analysis, and electrical conductivity. The proposed structure for H3L with Re (V) i

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Mar 28 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Evaluation of Rosuvastatin Effect as Adjuvant Therapy to Methotrexate on Lipid Profile and the Possibility of its Cardioprotective Effect in Iraqi Patients with Active Rheumatoid Arthritis
...Show More Authors

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a common inflammatory disease that associated with increased morbidity and mortality due to accelerated atherosclerosis. Rosuvastatin is a unique hydroxy methyl glutaryl Co A (HMGCoA) reductase inhibitor that has anti inflammatory effects.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of rosuvastatin as adjuvant therapy to methotrexate (MTX) on lipid profile and its possible cardioprotective effect in RA patients. A double blinded placebo controlled clinical trial with 8 weeks follow up periods at which 40 patients with active RA using MTX were randomized into 2 groups to receive either rosuvastatin 10mg or placebo as adjuvant therapy to MTX. In addition to twenty healthy subjects as control group.

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2010
Journal Name
Iraqi J Pharm Sci,
Synthesis, Characterization and Antibacterial Activities of Ligand Type N2O4 Schiff base and its Novel Complexes with Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II) and Zn(II) ions
...Show More Authors

The reaction of 2-amino benzoic acid with 1,2-dichloroethane under reflux in methanol and KOH as a base to gave the precursor [H4L]. The precursor under reflux and drops of CH3COOH which reacted with (2mole) from salicycaldehyde in methanol to gave a new type N2O4 ligand [H2L], this ligand was reacted with (MCl2) Where [M= Co (II), Ni(II), Cu(II) and Zn(II)] in (1:1) ratio at reflux in methanol using KOH as a base, to give complexes of the general formula [M(L)]. All compounds have been characterized by spectroscopic methods [1H NMR ( just to the ligand), FTIR, uv-vis, atomic absorption], melting point, conductivity, chloride content, as well as magnetic susceptibility measurements. From the above data, the proposed molecular structu

... Show More
Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis, structural study, antimicrobial activity and theoretical treatment of Cr(III), Ni(II), Pt(IV) and Zn(II) complexes with 2-hydroxy-4-Nitro phenyl piperonalidene
...Show More Authors

The complexes of the 2-hydroxy-4-Nitro phenyl piperonalidene with metal ions Cr(III), Ni(II), Pt(IV) and Zn(II) were prepared in ethanolic solution. These complexes were characterized by spectroscopic methods, conductivity, metal analyses and magnetic moment measurements. The nature of the complexes formed in ethanolic solution was study following the molar ratio method. From the spectral studies, monomer structures proposed for the nickel (II) and Zinc (II) complexes while dimeric structures for the chromium (III) and platinum (IV) were proposed. Octahedral geometry was suggested for all prepared complexes except zinc (II) has tetrahedral geometry, Structural geometries of these compounds were also suggested in gas phase by using

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Passive Design Strategies to Enhance Natural Ventilation in Buildings "Election of Passive Design Strategies to Achieve Natural Ventilation in Iraqi Urban Environment with Hot Arid Climate"
...Show More Authors

The natural ventilation in buildings is one of effective strategies for achieving energy efficiency in buildings by employing methods and ways of passive design, as well as its efficiency in providing high ranges of thermal comfort for occupants in buildings and raises their productivity. Because the concept of natural ventilation for many people confined to achieve through the windows and openings only, become necessary to provide this research to demonstrate the various passive design strategies for natural ventilation. Then, research problem: Insufficient knowledge about the importance and mechanism of the application of passive design strategies for natural ventilation in buildings. The research objective is: Analysis of passive desi

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of The Chilean Chemical Society
NEW AZO-SCHIFF BASE DERIVED WITH Ni(II), Co(II), Cu(II), Pd(II) AND Pt(II) COMPLEXES: PREPARATION, SPECTROSCOPIC INVESTIGATION, STRUCTURAL STUDIES AND BIOLOGICAL ACTIVITY
...Show More Authors

The coordination ability of the azo-Schiff base 2-[1,5-Dimethyl-3-[2-(5-methyl-1H-indol-3-yl)-ethyl imino]-2-phenyl-2,3-dihydro-1H-pyrazol-4-ylazo]-5- hydroxy-benzoic acid has been proven in complexation reactions with Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II), Pd(II) and Pt(II) ions. The free ligand (LH) and its complexes were characterized using elemental analysis, determination of metal concentration, magnetic susceptibility, molar conductivity, FTIR, Uv-Vis, (1H, 13C) NMR spectra, mass spectra and thermal analysis (TGA). The results confirmed the coordination of the ligand through the nitrogen of the azomethine, Azo group (Azo) and the carboxylate ion with the metal ions. The activation thermodynamic parameters, such as ΔE*, ΔH*, ΔS*, ΔG*and K are cal

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (51)
Crossref (34)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2025
Journal Name
Modern Sport
Vertical Resistance and Its Relationship with Speed-Strength and Biomechanical Variables During the Takeoff Phase and the Performance of Selected Activities in Individual and Team Sports
...Show More Authors

Jumping ability is a fundamental variable in many sports, as its execution requires an integration of muscular strength Q1 and certain biomechanical variables. This is particularly evident in gymnastics jumping events and jump shots in ball games, both of which rely on a high level of vertical resistance. Vertical resistance serves as an indicator of an athlete’s ability to overcome their body weight while counteracting gravitational force to achieve optimal performance. As such, it is considered one of the key factors in movements that demand explosive power and speed. The researchers believe that despite the significant relationship between vertical resistance, speed-strength of the arms and legs, and certain biomechanical varia

... Show More
View Publication
Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Synthesis and Characterization of new Manganese(II), Cobalt(II), Cadmium(II) and Mercury(II) Complexes with ligand [N-(3-acetylphenylcarbamothioyl)-2-chloroacetamide] and their Antibacterial Studies
...Show More Authors
Abstract<p>Addition chloro acetyl isothiocyanate (C<sub>3</sub>H<sub>2</sub>ClNOS) with 3-Aminoaceto phenone (C<sub>8</sub>H<sub>9</sub>NO) to prepare a fresh Ligand [N-(3-acetyl phenyl carbamothioyl)-2-chloroacetamide](L). The ligand (L) behaves as bidentate coordinating through O and S donor with metal ions, the general formula of all complexes [M(L)<sub>2</sub>(Cl)<sub>2</sub>](M<sup>+2</sup> = Manganese(II), Cobalt(II), Cadmium(II) and Mercury(II)). Compounds were investigation by Proton-1, Carbon -13 NMR spectra (ligand (L) only), Element Microanalysis for C, N, H, O, S, Fourier-transform infrared, UV visible, Conductance</p> ... Show More
View Publication
Scopus (8)
Crossref (4)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Thu May 05 2016
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research (ijsr)
Mixed-1,10-phenanthroline with Mn(II), Cu(II),Co(II), Hg(II) and Ni(II) complexes Synthesis, Antimicrobial Activity and Spectroscopic Characterization of Binuclear Schiff Base
...Show More Authors

The M(II) complexes [M2 (phen)2 (L)(H2O)2Cl2 ] in (2:1:2 (M:L:phen) molar ratio, (where M(II) =Mn(II), Co(II), Cu(II), Ni(II) and Hg(II), phen = 1,10-phenanthroline; L = 2,2'-(1Z,1'Z)-(biphenyl-4,4'-diylbis(azan-1-yl-1-ylidene))bis(methan-1-yl-1- ylidene)diphenol] were synthesized. The mixed complexes have been prepared and characterized using 1H and13C NMR, UV/Visible, FTIR spectra methods and elemental microanalysis, as well as magnetic susceptibility and conductivity measurements. The metal complexes were tested in vitro against three types of pathogenic bacteria microorganisms: Staphylococcus aurous, Escherichia coli, Bacillussubtilis and Pseudomonasaeroginosa to assess their antimicrobial properties. From this study shows that all the

... Show More
View Publication
Crossref (6)
Crossref