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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 10 2018
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Work Stress Sources of the Communicator in Public Relations “A field study on Governmental Institutions in UAE”.
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This study addressed the work stress sources and level of the communicator in public relations in governmental institutions in the United Arab Emirates. The importance of this study is the lack of studies on work stress of the communicator in public relations. The study aimed to investigate the work stress source Physical, individual, groups, organizational and Professional source which effect on the performance of communicator in public relations. The researcher used the descriptive approach and questionnaire as an essential tool for collecting information. Some of the important results of the study are The communicator in public relations facing stress in work by 42% which affect on his performance by average level. The organizational

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
The dramatic act and its transformations in the Iraqi theatrical show "Black Astronomy play as a sample"
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The subject of the act and its transformations in the presentation is of great importance at the level of study, analysis and interpretation, and through that the researcher adopted the following title (The Dramatic Act and Its Transformations in the Iraqi Theatrical Show). The play of Black Astronomy was chosen as a sample for analysis, and the aim of the research came in order to achieve a special knowledge of the extent of the transformation that occurred between the dramatic structure of the act and theatrical embodiment and its multiple elements of operation in the Iraqi theatrical shows. It was limited to the show of the Iraqi theater in the year (2020) and included the theoretical framework that accommodated three sections. As for

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 30 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Synthesis and Preliminary Pharmacological Evaluation of Aminobenzensulfonamides Derivatives of Mefenamic Acid as a Potential Anti-inflammatory Agents
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A group of amino derivatives [4-aminobenzenesulfonamide,4-amino-N¹ methylbenzenesulfonamide, or N¹-(4-aminophenylsulfonyl)acetamide] bound to carboxyl group of mefenamic acid a well known nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) were designed and synthesized for evaluation as a potential anti-inflammatory agent.  In vivo acute anti-inflammatory activity of the final compounds (9, 10 and 11) was evaluated in rat using egg-white induced edema model of inflammation in a dose equivalent to (7.5mg/Kg) of mefenamic acid. All tested compounds produced a significant reduction in paw edema with respect to the effect of propylene glycol 50% v/v (control group). Moreover, the 4-amino-N-methylbenzenesulfonamide derivative (c

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
Methods of Acting Performance and Watching Industry in Street Theatre- Play (Sold) - A Model: بهاء زهير كاظم
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  The audience is one of the important practical elements in the theatrical show and its importance is not confined to its static activity as a receiver element only, rather it went beyond that issue as an effective and influential element in the proceedings of the show and the process of meaning construction, that it gains an active role in the construction and production of the connotation that influences and is influenced by the actor, where the communication channels are open between the two sides, consequently a kind of watching and joint interaction happens between them. Thus, it has become necessary for the actor to create a suitable environment for the onlookers in order for it to be an essential part of the show system. The

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
PHARAOH'S CHARACTER BETWEEN THE QUR'ANIC TEXT AND THE ARABIC NOVEL: (Naguib Mahfouz's Pharaonic Novels as a Model)
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The Character is one of the elements of Storytelling, as it is the center of the plot, making it the basis on which the talk is about. The talk is the portrayal of the character while they’re acting; the novelist presents the character by interacting with the events, and the extent of the negative and positive appearing impact on the character. It should be noted that everyone has two personalities or more, each one appearing in a different position or situation. For instance, a man can be a father, a lover, an employee, a son or anyone else .. in another position, he might be a master, and in another a looser begging for the mercy of his humiliator, and sometimes he can show weakness to the one he loves, or show strength to his enemie

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
A three-stage blumlein-circuit to generate transversely excited atmospheric nitrogen laser by using three spark gaps
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In this research constructed N2 laser system by use developed method of electric discharge. In this method used four step of electric discharge by using four capacitors, three spark gaps, high tension power supply varying in range from 12kV to 24 kV and three resistors, this method called three stage blumlein circuit. The breakdown time delay of these parallel spark gaps cement strong ultraviolet preionization in the laser channel, thus the result of these amendments the laser output is many doubled and is more increasing than that obtained using the one and two stage blumlein circuits. This system has been designed and operated to give pulse laser with wavelength at 337.1 nm. This laser system can operate without mirrors and optical res

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Ecological Risk Assessment of Mercury Contamination in a Mangrove Ecosystem of the Segara Anakan Cilacap, Indonesia
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Ecological risk assessment of mercury contaminant has a means to analyze the ecological risk aspect of ecosystem using the potential impact of mercury pollution in soil, water and organism. The ecological risk assessment in a coastal area can be shown by mangrove zonation, clustering and interpolation of mercury accumulation. This research aims to analyze ecological risk assessment of potential mercury (including bioaccumulation and translocation) using indicators of species distribution, clustering, zonation and interpolation of mercury accumulation. The results showed that the Segara Anakan had a high risk of mercury pollution, using indicators like as the potential of mercury contaminant in water body was 0137±0.0137 ppm, substrate a

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Political development on the royal regime era : A perusal according to the standards of Alexis de Tocqueville
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Abstract: The researcher aims to highlight the historical frames of political development in royal regime era (1921-1949) and study its transitions on social-political aspect for the various periods during this consistent era of Iraq history. As some elements played an important role in shaping this era’s features ,as well as 2hat succeed it, which mainly affected the political progression’s configuration, such as : political culture role, social and cultural foundation, state policy essence and the unofficial institutions remarkable role in influencing public awareness and concerning it's relation to the state ,the clan and religious institutions. The researcher employed Alexis de Tocqueville’s evaluation criteria and indi

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 15 2021
Journal Name
Psychology And Education Journal
Property and Possession in Gayl Jones’s Novel Corregidora: A Study in African American Literature and Literary Theory
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the traumatic memory of their ancestors. The novel navigates sites of trauma, memory, and blues music while resisting the bourgeoisie-capitalist relationships that permeated not only white society but also African American communities. Jones’s novel presents the plight of an African American woman, Ursa, caught between the memory of her enslaved foremothers and her life in an emancipated world. The physical and spiritual exploitation of African American women who bear witness to the history of slavery in Corregidora materializes black women’s individuality. This article is framed by trauma studies as well as the Marxists’ concepts of commodification, accumulation, and production. Ursa, one of the Corregidora women, represents

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Developing Human Capital according to the Communities of Practice: A comparative study by using Data Envelopment Analysis
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The research discusses the need to find the innovative structures and methodologies for developing Human Capital (HC) in Iraqi Universities. One of the most important of these structures is Communities of Practice (CoPs) which contributes to develop HC by using learning, teaching and training through the conversion speed of knowledge and creativity into practice. This research has been used the comparative approach through employing the methodology of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) by using (Excel 2010 - Solver) as a field evidence to prove the role of CoPs in developing HC. In light of the given information, a researcher adopted on an archived preliminary data about (23) colleges at Mosul University as a deliberate sample for t

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