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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 30 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Design & Nature And Ecodynamics
Evaluation of the Minimum Instream Flow: A Case Study of Shatt-Al Hillah River in Babylon Governorate
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Publication Date
Tue Apr 16 2024
Journal Name
Ecancermedicalscience
Prostate cancer across four countries in the Middle East: a multi-centre, observational, retrospective and prognostic study
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Publication Date
Mon May 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Optimization of Inventory Inflation Budget Based on Spare-parts and Miscellaneous Costs of a Typical Automobile Industry
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Brainstorming has been a common approach in many industries where the result is not always accurate, especially when procuring automobile spare parts. This approach was replaced with a scientific and optimized method that is highly reliable, hence the decision to optimize the inventory inflation budget based on spare parts and miscellaneous costs of the typical automobile industry. Some factors required to achieve this goal were investigated. Through this investigation, spare parts (consumables and non-consumables) were found to be mostly used in Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing (IVM), Nigeria but incorporated miscellaneous costs to augment the cost of spare parts. The inflation rate was considered first due to the market's

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 29 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Medication Safety in Patients under 18 Years Old; a Retrospective Study based on Iraqi Pharmacovigilance Center Database
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Medication safety is an important part of the comprehensive patient safety term. Medication safety is gaining more attention as the World Health Organization set the goal of decreasing medication harm by (50%) for the next 5 years when launching the third global challenge. Studying medication safety in the risk groups such as young ages, children are crucial to learn more about the effect of medicines in this risk group since they are not included in the clinical trials. Adverse drug reaction is defined as any harm resulted from the drug itself during medical process journey, while medication errors are any harm resulted from the treatment process rather than the drug or it is the result of the failure in a step of the treatment process

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Political development on the royal regime era : A perusal according to the standards of Alexis de Tocqueville
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Abstract: The researcher aims to highlight the historical frames of political development in royal regime era (1921-1949) and study its transitions on social-political aspect for the various periods during this consistent era of Iraq history. As some elements played an important role in shaping this era’s features ,as well as 2hat succeed it, which mainly affected the political progression’s configuration, such as : political culture role, social and cultural foundation, state policy essence and the unofficial institutions remarkable role in influencing public awareness and concerning it's relation to the state ,the clan and religious institutions. The researcher employed Alexis de Tocqueville’s evaluation criteria and indi

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 31 2024
Journal Name
Intelligent Automation And Soft Computing
Fusion of Type-2 Neutrosophic Similarity Measure in Signatures Verification Systems: A New Forensic Document Analysis Paradigm
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Signature verification involves vague situations in which a signature could resemble many reference samples or might differ because of handwriting variances. By presenting the features and similarity score of signatures from the matching algorithm as fuzzy sets and capturing the degrees of membership, non-membership, and indeterminacy, a neutrosophic engine can significantly contribute to signature verification by addressing the inherent uncertainties and ambiguities present in signatures. But type-1 neutrosophic logic gives these membership functions fixed values, which could not adequately capture the various degrees of uncertainty in the characteristics of signatures. Type-1 neutrosophic representation is also unable to adjust to various

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 21 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
ESTIMATION OF THE OPTIMUM BED THICKNESS OF A FLOWTHROUGH POROUS ELECTRODE (FTPE) WORKING UNDER MASS TRANSFER CONTROL
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In this paper, a theoretical analysis of optimum bed thickness operates under mass transfer control for realizing a high efficiency and reaction conversion of an electrochemical reactor has been made based on flowthrough porous electrode (FTPE) configuration. Many models have been used to represent the optimum bed thickness by taking a look into previous works concerned and collecting all related information, data, and models. The parameters that affect the optimum bed thickness have been visualized and reviewed, and almost all of them have been examined by experimental data from different sources and based on the various models. It has been found that the increase in electrolyte flow rate, concentration, limiting current density, and sp

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 15 2021
Journal Name
Psychology And Education Journal
Property and Possession in Gayl Jones’s Novel Corregidora: A Study in African American Literature and Literary Theory
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the traumatic memory of their ancestors. The novel navigates sites of trauma, memory, and blues music while resisting the bourgeoisie-capitalist relationships that permeated not only white society but also African American communities. Jones’s novel presents the plight of an African American woman, Ursa, caught between the memory of her enslaved foremothers and her life in an emancipated world. The physical and spiritual exploitation of African American women who bear witness to the history of slavery in Corregidora materializes black women’s individuality. This article is framed by trauma studies as well as the Marxists’ concepts of commodification, accumulation, and production. Ursa, one of the Corregidora women, represents

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Publication Date
Wed May 10 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Analysis and evaluation of related factors affecting community Participation as a policy to upgrade residential slums area
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have suffered from deteriorating residential neighborhoods, poor economic, social and urban living conditions of the population and deteriorating the infrastructural and superior services. These problems were the secretions of these cities' rapid urbanization. Based on the principles of sustainable urban planning and in order to achieve adequate opportunities for the lives of the population and provide them with sustainable livelihoods, policies have emerged to upgrade along the lines of community participation and programmes to reform and develop those neighbourhoods, raise their efficiency and make them livable. Thus, the problem of research was identified "The absence of a comprehensive cognitive perception of the most prominent facto

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
المجلة العراقية للعلوم السياسية
Climate changes and their impact on Iraqi women: a study into the causes and necessities of response
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              Climate change is a global environmental issue and a common concern for humanity, and it is an inevitable result of civilization development, especially after the industrial revolution All areas of life                                                             At the level of the Iraqi situation , Iraq faces several challenges posed by Climate change , Such as high temperature, lack of rain, water scarcity , land salinity , and the increase in the proportion of sand and dust storms and the resulting disasters, which impedes development and hinders efforts to reduce poverty , enhance livelihoods , and reduce conflict  to obtain natural resources.                            

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