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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Male protagonists in Alice Walker's The Color Purple; a Voyage from Oppression to Maturity and Reconciliation
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Alice Walker's novel The Color Purple1983, whose events take place in the rural Georgia and addresses the most important issues in the early 20thcentury; like male dominant society and women submission to men, weaves a mosaic picture of male-female relationships. Black men like Alphonso, Albert and Harpo are portrayed as oppressors, cruel and they exercise power and violence over their wives and daughters. Through the negative portrayal of black male characters, Walker is accused to be a men hating writer because she ''Views oppression as an essentially masculine activity which springs from the male's aggressive need to dominate. In the novel, man is the premium mobile, the one by whom and t

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Research In Social Sciences & Humanities
Staging Violence in Sarah Kane’s Blasted & Ali Abdulnebi al Ziadi’s Fourth Generation: a Comparative Study
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Violence occurs as a daily human action all over the world; it may cause so many kinds of damage to individuals as well as to society: physical, psychological, or both. Many literary authors of different genres have tried their best to portray violence by showing its negative effects, especially playwrights because they have the chance to show people the dangers of violence through performance on stage to warn them against such negatively affected action. It has been a human action since the beginning of human life on this planet when the first crime happened on earth when Cane killed his brother Abel. In our modern world, people are witnessing daily violent actions as a result of destructive wars that turned the humans into brutal beings.

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2017
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The ignorant poem and the body language: (The sieve of the Sikkhar sieve is a model)
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This study is marked by: The ignorant poem and body language
 Its main objective is to reveal the manifestations of this language in the text mentioned, and accordingly, the sieve poem has been read semantic (semantic) and hermeneutic, revealing the poet's ability to employ symbols and signals (body language) in the poem chosen for this purpose; The existence of such language in pre-Islamic poetry. After a long reflection and reading, the signs and symbols of the physical movement of the body, and its feminine and aesthetic manifestations were identified, and this was achieved through the use of modern critical methodologies that directly affect this language. The study consisted of an introduction and three topics, followed by t

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Green synthesis of CdS:Sn NPs by Starch as a Covering Agent and Studying its Physical Properties
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The aim of this research is to employ starch as a stabilizing and reducing agent in the production of CdS nanoparticles with less environmental risk, easy scaling, stability, economical feasibility, and suitability for large-scale production. Nanoparticles of CdS have been successfully produced by employing starch as a reducing agent in a simple green synthesis technique and then doped with Sn in certain proportions (1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, and 5%).According to the XRD data, the samples were crystallized in a hexagonal pattern, because the average crystal size of pure CdS is 5.6nm and fluctuates in response to the changes in doping concentration 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 %wt Sn, to become   4.8, 3.9, 11.5, 13.1, 9.3 nm respectively. An increase in crystal

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Publication Date
Wed May 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Orthodontic Science
Keeping the teeth in line: Exploring the necessity of bonded retainers in orthodontics: A narrative review
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In most recent studies, long-term retention after orthodontic treatment has been hypothesized that may be necessary to maintain the stability of the dentition and avoid post-treatment changes. The bonded fixed retainer is characterized by its clinical effectiveness, patient acceptance, and lack of patient complaints as compared with a removable retainer. An electronic database (such as PubMed, PubMed Central, Web of Science, Science Direct, Cochrane Library, Scopus, and ResearchGate) has been collected using specific keywords. Of the 152 articles, only randomized clinical trials that investigated different types of fixed retainers or compared fixed with removable retainers were illustrated in tables and included in this review. The

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
Digitization is a contemporary reality and its importance in the Saudi plastic arts: ابتسام سعود الرشيد
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After completion of the artistic production, the artist plays the echo of this production upon the recipient. Whether this recipient is from the public, art connoisseurs, or private artists, critics and academics. In the past, the boundaries of Time and place had a great effect in limiting this echo or its quality, as the views of the recipients were largely influenced by the prevailing thought or the artistic trends that dominate the artistic scene in the surrounding environment in which the artist created. In order for the artist to show works for the widest segment of the recipient, he bears the burden of the costs of transporting the work, a keeper of damage on the move, and the material amounts that may hinder the publication of the

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 18 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Fabrication and Characterization of Tri Metal Oxides by Chemical Spray Pyrolysis Technique as a Gas Sensor
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In this research tri metal oxides were fabricated by simple chemical spray pyrolysis technique from (Sn(NO3)2.20 H2O, Zn(NO3)2.6 H2O, Cd(NO3)2.4 H2O) salts at concentration 0.1M with mixing weight ratio 50:50 were fabricated on silicon substrate n-type (111). (with & without the presence of grooves by the following diemensions (20μm width, 7.5μm depth) with thickness was about ( 0.1 ±0.05 µm) using water soluble as precursors at a substrate temperature 550 ºC±5, with spray distance (15 cm) and their gas sensing properties toward H2S gas at different concentrations (10,50,100,500 ppmv) in air were investigated at room te

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Publication Date
Mon May 01 2017
Journal Name
2017 Ieee International Conference On Electro Information Technology (eit)
A high-performance non-isolated DC-DC buck converter design based on wide bandgap power devices
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Publication Date
Fri Sep 01 2023
Journal Name
Nasaq Journal
Social Media and Language Evolution: A Review of Current Theoretical Efforts on Communication and Language Change
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This article is an endeavour to highlight the relationship between social media and language evolution. It reviews the current theoretical efforts on communication and language change. The descriptive design, which is theoretically based on technological determision, is used. The assumption behind this review is that the social media plays a significant role in language evolution. Moreover, different platforms of social media are characterized by being the easiest and fastest means of communication. It concludes that the current theoretical efforts have paid much attention to the relationship between social media and language evolution. Such efforts have highlighted the fact that social media platforms are awash with a lot of acronyms, cybe

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Global Pharma Technology
A Modified Version of Generalized Standard Addition Method as Quantitative Determination of Lysineacetyl salicylate-Glycine Complex
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