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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 03 2022
Journal Name
International Education And Culture Studies
A Future Vision of Mathematics Teacher Preparation Program at the Universities
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Publication Date
Wed Apr 26 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Contemporary Medical Sciences
A potential role of extracellular DNA in biofilm and ciprofloxacin resistance
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Objectives: This study aims to broaden our knowledge of the role of eDNA in bacterial biofilms and antibiotic-resistance gene transfer among isolates. Methods: Staphylococcus aureus, E. coli, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa were isolated from different non-repeated 170 specimens. The bacterial isolates were identified using morphological and molecular methods. Different concentrations of genomic DNA were tested for their potential role in biofilms formed by study isolates employing microtiter plate assay. Ciprofloxacin resistance was identified by detecting a mutation in gyrA and parC. Results: The biofilm intensity significantly decreased (P < 0.05) concerning S. aureus isolates and insignificantly (P > 0.05) concernin

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Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
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Knee Injuries And Rehabilitation: A Comprehensive Review Of The Psychological Landscape
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Sun Mar 07 2010
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Low Loss in a Gas Filled Hollow Core Photonic crystal fiber
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The work in this paper focuses on the experimental confirming of the losses in photonic crystal fibers (PCF) on the transmission of Q-switched Nd:YAG laser. First HC-PCF was evacuated to 0.1 mbar then the microstructure fiber (PCF) was filled with He gas & gas. Second the input power and output power of Q-switched Nd:YAG laser was measured in hollow core photonic bandgap fiber (HCPCF). In this work loss was calculated in the hollow core photonic crystal fiber (HCPCF) filled with air then N2, and He gases respectively. It has bean observed that the minimum loss obtained in case of filling (HC-PCF) with He gas and its equal to 15.070 dB/km at operating wavelength (1040-1090) nm.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 05 2023
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Baghdad Science Journal
Further Results on (a, d) -total Edge Irregularity Strength of Graphs
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Consider a simple graph   on vertices and edges together with a total  labeling . Then ρ is called total edge irregular labeling if there exists a one-to-one correspondence, say  defined by  for all  where  Also, the value  is said to be the edge weight of . The total edge irregularity strength of the graph G is indicated by  and is the least  for which G admits   edge irregular h-labeling.  In this article,   for some common graph families are examined. In addition, an open problem is solved affirmatively.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Designing a Secure Software-Defined Radio Transceiver using the Logistic Map
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The need to exchange large amounts of real-time data is constantly increasing in wireless communication. While traditional radio transceivers are not cost-effective and their components should be integrated, software-defined radio (SDR) ones have opened up a new class of wireless technologies with high security.  This study aims to design an  SDR  transceiver was built using one type of modulation, which is 16 QAM, and adding a  security subsystem using one type of chaos map, which is a  logistic map, because it is a very simple nonlinear dynamical equations that generate a random key and  EXCLUSIVE  OR with the originally transmitted data to protect data through the transmission. At th

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 09 2015
Journal Name
Arab World English Journal (awej)
Investigating Socio-pragmatic Failure in Cross-cultural Translation: A Theoretical Perspective
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Pragmatics of translation is mainly concerned with how social contexts have their own influence on both the source text (ST) initiator's linguistic choices and the translator's interpretation of the meanings intended in the target text (TT). In translation, socio-pragmatic failure(SPF), as part of cross-cultural failure, generally refers to a translator's misuse or misunderstanding of the social conditions placed on language in use. In addition, this paper aims to illustrate the importance of SPF in cross-cultural translation via identifying that such kind of failure most likely leads to cross-cultural communication breakdown. Besides, this paper attempts to answer the question of whether translators from English into Arabic or vice versa h

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Wed May 10 2023
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Water flow into unsaturated porous media is governed by the Richards’ partial differential equation expressing the mass conservation and Darcy’s laws. The Richards’ equation may be written in three forms,where the dependent variable is pressure head or moisture content, and the constitutive relationships between water content and pressure head allow for conversion of one form into the other. In the present paper, the “moisture-based" form of Richards’ equation is linearized by applying Kirchhoff’s transformation, which
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Publication Date
Wed Aug 12 2020
Journal Name
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Developing of a 3D Printer to Produce Parts Using Powder Metal
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