Preferred Language
Articles
/
jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
...Show More Authors

Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

Crossref
View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Dec 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-adab Journal
A Feminist Rhetorical Analysis of Anti-feminist Poetry in English and Arabic
...Show More Authors

View Publication
Crossref (1)
Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Apr 18 2019
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Congenital Club Foot Treated By Of Ponseti Method : A Short-Term Results
...Show More Authors

Background: Congenital club foot is a complex deformity of foot .It is a collection of different abnormalities, with different etiologies. Consequently, Severity varies with   difficulties in evaluating treatment strategies with outcome results. The treatment of congenital club foot remains controversial. Usually, the orthopedist's goal is to obtain anatomically and functionally normal feet in all patients.                                Objective: To asses short term follow up result of conservatively treated club feet in relation to the age of initial casting by Ponseti technique.           Methods :A cross sectional observational study with some comparative content done in Al-kindy

... Show More
Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Tue May 01 2012
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Controlling the wavelength of a high power diode laser using thermoelectric cooler
...Show More Authors

The present work includes a design and characteristics study of a controlling the wavelength of high power diode laser by thermoelectric cooler [TEC] . The work includes the operation of the [TEC] to control the temperature of the diode laser between ( 0- +30) °C by changing the resistance of thermistor. We can control a limited temperature of a diode laser by changing the phase cooling between hot and cold faces of the diode, this process can be attempted by comparator type [LM –311] .The theoretical results give a model for controlling the temperature with, the suitable wavelength.

View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Tue Sep 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Salivary mucoepidermoid carcinoma, auclair vs brandwein grading system: A histopathological comparative study
...Show More Authors

Background: The grading systems of salivary mucoepidermoid carcinoma depend on different histologic and morphologic features. The aim of this study was to compare between Auclair and Brandwein systems according to their histologic criteria, and the type of cell predominant. Materials and Methods: Twenty-one case included hematoxylin-eosin (H&E) stained tissue slides that were diagnosed as MEC, originally categorized into low and high grade type regardless of the grading system, have meticulously undergone histopathologic review. The sample was graded according to criteria owing to Auclair and Brandwein methods. The predominant type of cells was determined by microscopic examination according to grade of tumor. Results: Regarding the

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Aug 07 2018
Journal Name
Oral And Maxillofacial Surgery
Mandibular war injuries caused by bullets and shell fragments: a comparative study
...Show More Authors

View Publication
Scopus (4)
Crossref (7)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Nov 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Synthesis and Characterization of Ni2O3 as a Phase of Nickel Oxide Nanomaterial
...Show More Authors

    Ni2O3 nanomaterial, a phase of nickel oxide, is synthesized by a simple chemical process. The pure raw materials used in the present process were nickel chloride hexahydrate NiCl2.6H2O and potassium hydroxide KOH by utilizing temperature at 250 oC for 2 hour.  The structural, morphological and optical properties of the synthesized specimens of Ni2O3 were investigated employing diverse techniques such as XRD, AFM, SEM and UV-Vis, respectively. The XRD technique confirms the presence of Ni2O3 nanomaterial with crystal size of 57.083 nm which indexing to the (2θ) of 31.82; this results revealed the Ni2O3 was a phase of nickel oxide with Nano structure. The synthesized Ni2O3 will be useful in manufacturng electrodes materials f

... Show More
View Publication
Scopus (2)
Crossref (2)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Mar 31 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Exploring the Impact of Petrophysical Uncertainties on Recoverable Reserves: A Case Study
...Show More Authors

Reliable estimation of critical parameters such as hydrocarbon pore volume, water saturation, and recovery factor are essential for accurate reserve assessment. The inherent uncertainties associated with these parameters encompass a reasonable range of estimated recoverable volumes for single accumulations or projects. Incorporating this uncertainty range allows for a comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes and associated risks. In this study, we focus on the oil field located in the northern part of Iraq and employ a Monte Carlo based petrophysical uncertainty modeling approach. This method systematically considers various sources of error and utilizes effective interpretation techniques. Leveraging the current state of a

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (5)
Crossref (2)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Mar 10 2022
Journal Name
Oral Surgery
Evaluation of buffered local anaesthesia in dental extraction: A randomized controlled study
...Show More Authors

Buffering of Local anaesthesia (LA) has been suggested as a mechanism to improve injection comfort and hasten the onset of anaesthesia. Aim This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of buffered LA in the extraction of maxillary premolars and molars. Materials and Methods This randomized controlled study included 100 patients who were indicated for extraction of maxillary posterior teeth, they were randomly divided into two groups; a study group that received infiltration of buffered 2% lidocaine hydrochloride with 1:80,000 epinephrine LA, and a control group that received non-buffered 2% lidocaine hydrochloride with 1:80,000 epinephrine LA. The buffering was performed using the Onset® LA buffering system (Onpharma®). The outcome va

... Show More
View Publication
Scopus (6)
Crossref (2)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Nov 01 2021
Journal Name
Bioorganic Chemistry
A new class of cytotoxic agents targets tubulin and disrupts microtubule dynamics
...Show More Authors

View Publication
Scopus (20)
Crossref (13)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2016
Journal Name
International Journal Of Engineering Research And Advanced Technology (ijerat)
Speeding Up Back-Propagation Learning (SUBPL) Algorithm: A New Modified Back_Propagation Algorithm
...Show More Authors

The convergence speed is the most important feature of Back-Propagation (BP) algorithm. A lot of improvements were proposed to this algorithm since its presentation, in order to speed up the convergence phase. In this paper, a new modified BP algorithm called Speeding up Back-Propagation Learning (SUBPL) algorithm is proposed and compared to the standard BP. Different data sets were implemented and experimented to verify the improvement in SUBPL.

View Publication