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Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 30 2014
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Anal Fissure: Is it becoming a medical disorder?
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An anal fissure which does not heal with conservative measures as sits baths and laxatives is a chronic anal fissure. Physiologically, it is the high resting tone of the internal anal sphincter that chiefly interferes with the healing process of these fissures. Until now, the gold standard treatment modality is surgery, either digital anal dilatation or lateral sphincterotomy. However, concerns have been raised about the incidence of faecal incontinence after surgery. Therefore, pharmacological means to treat chronic anal fissures have been explored.A Medline and pub med database search from 1986-2012 was conducted to perform a literature search for articles relating to the non-surgical treatment of chronic anal fissure.Pharmacological s

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
A Review on Arabic Sign Language Translator Systems
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Abstract<p>Deaf and dumb peoples are suffering difficulties most of the time in communicating with society. They use sign language to communicate with each other and with normal people. But Normal people find it more difficult to understand the sign language and gestures made by deaf and dumb people. Therefore, many techniques have been employed to tackle this problem by converting the sign language to a text or a voice and vice versa. In recent years, research has progressed steadily in regard to the use of computers to recognize and translate the sign language. This paper reviews significant projects in the field beginning with important steps of sign language translation. These projects can b</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
2017 12th International Conference For Internet Technology And Secured Transactions (icitst)
A novel multimedia-forensic analysis tool (M-FAT)
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 25 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Drug Delivery Technology
Development of a Simple Colorimetric Determination of Dexamethasone
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A simple, environmentally benign, cost-effective, and sensitive colorimetric determination for the pharmaceutical drug dexamethasone sodium phosphate (DXP) has been developed by the formation of a colored complex with fluoranil. The process was sensitive and linear over the range 1 to 40 μg/mL, excellent correlation coefficient 0.9989, recovery% 99.80 ± 1.3, limit of detection (LOD) and limit of quantification (LOQ) were 0.23 and 0.9 μg/mL, respectively, and good RSD ~1.63%. The experimental conditions were optimized after an intensive study. The approach was validated statistically for the quantification of the analyte in its pure and/or pharmaceutical form. Despite the proposed approach is selective, it still can be applied for

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 08 2023
Journal Name
Open Engineering
A review of rutting in asphalt concrete pavement
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Undoubtedly, rutting in asphalt concrete pavement is considered a major dilemma in terms of pavement performance and safety faced by road users as well as the road authorities. Rutting is a bowl-shaped depression in the wheel paths that develop gradually with the increasing number of load applications. Heavy axle loadings besides the high pavement summer temperature enhance the problem of rutting. According to the AASHTO design equation for flexible pavements, a 1.1 in rut depth will reduce the present serviceability index of relatively new pavement, having no other distress, from 4.2 to 2.5. With this amount of drop in serviceability, the entire life of the pavement in effect has been lost. Therefore, it is crucial to look at the mechani

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 05 2021
Journal Name
Solid State Technology
Genetic Algorithms in Construction Project Management: A Review
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Genetic algorithms (GA) are a helpful instrument for planning and controlling the activities of a project. It is based on the technique of survival of the fittest and natural selection. GA has been used in different sectors of construction and building however that is rarely documented. This research aimed to examine the utilisation of genetic algorithms in construction project management. For this purpose, the research focused on the benefits and challenges of genetic algorithms, and the extent to which genetic algorithms is utilised in construction project management. Results showed that GA provides an ability of generating near optimal solutions which can be adopted to reduce complexity in project management and resolve difficult problem

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Publication Date
Wed May 25 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A Review of Flow Migration Through Mobile Networks
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      The interesting new sources of data for official statistics are cell phone data. Electronic media has defined the way of research human behavior rapidly over the last decade. As data storage and sensing technology progressed, electronic records now cover a diverse variety of human activities from localized data (phone) to open source contributions on Wikipedia and the Open Area Map. Electronic records now encompass the numerous fields of activity. The ad hoc vehicle network is a research community-based wireless technology for the implementation of intelligent transport applications. It is necessary to estimate migration flows and predict future trends to understand the causes and effects of migration and to enforce policies t

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2022
Journal Name
Advances In Science And Technology Research Journal
Vein Biometric Recognition Methods and Systems: A Review
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 09 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
A Stylistic Analysis of Bisson’s Bears Discover Fire
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This paper aims at analyzing Terry Bisson’s short story Bears Discover Fire stylistically by following both Gerard Genette’s theory of narratology (1980) and Short and Leech (1981) strategy for analyzing fictional works. Also trying to examine to what extent these models are applicable in analyzing the selected story. Stylistic analysis procedures help the readers/researchers to identify specific linguistic features in order to support literary interpretation and appreciation of literary texts. Style in fiction concentrates not on what is written, but on how a text is written. Each writer has his own style and techniques which distinguish him from other writers

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 28 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A Generalized Integral of Shilkret and Choquet Integrals
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In this paper we introduced a new type of integrals based on binary element sets “a generalized integral of Shilkret and Choquet integrals” that combined the two kinds of aggregation functions which are Shilkret and Choquet integrals. Then, we gave some properties of that integral. Finally, we illustrated our integral in a numerical example.
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