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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Performance Evaluation of Two Stages Parallel Flow Indirect Evaporative Cooling with Aspen Pads in Baghdad Climate Conditions
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This study delves into the realm of advanced cooling techniques by examining the performance of a two-stage parallel flow indirect evaporative cooling system enhanced with aspen pads in the challenging climate of Baghdad. The objective was to achieve average air dry bulb temperatures (43 oC) below the ambient wet bulb temperatures (24.95 oC) with an average relative humidity of 23%, aiming for unparalleled cooling efficiency. The research experiment was carried out in the urban environment of Baghdad, characterized by high temperature conditions. The investigation focused on the potential of the two-stage parallel flow setup, combined with the cooling capability of aspen pads, to surpass the limitat

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 21 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Ecological Engineering
Simultaneous Adsorption of Ternary Antibiotics (Levofloxacin, Meropenem, and Tetracycline) by SunFlower Husk Coated with Copper Oxide Nanoparticles
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In this study, a new adsorbent derived from sunflower husk powder and coated in CuO nanoparticles (CSFH) was investigated to evaluate the simultaneous adsorption of Levofloxacin (LEV), Meropenem (MER), and Tetracycline (TEC) from an aqueous solution. Significant improvements in the adsorption capacity of the sunflower husk were identified after the powder particles had been coated in CuO nanoparticles. Kinetic data were correlated using a pseudo-second-order model, and was successful for the three antibiotics. Moreover, high compatibility was identified between the LEV, MER, and TEC, isotherm data, and the Langmuir model, which produced a better fit to suit the isotherm curves. In addition, the spontaneous and exothermic nature of the adsor

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2023
Journal Name
Aip Conf. Proc. 2290
Synthesis, characterization and antimicrobial studies of mixed ligand from phthalic acid and 1,10-phenanthroline with their complexes
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In the present work, the phthalic acid (phthH2) and 1.10 phenonthroline (phen), and their complexes were synthesized and isolated as [M(phth)(phen)2], Mn(II), Fe(II), Co(II), Ni(II) Cu(II), Zn(II), and Cd(II) ions. These complexes were characterized by elemental analysis, melting point, conductivity, percentage metal, UV–Vis, FT-IR, and magnetic moment measurements. The molar conductance indicates that all the metal complexes in DMSO are nonelectrolytic. phthalic acid (phtha), and 1,10-Phenanthroline (phen), behaved as bidentate, coordinating to the metal ion through their two oxygen and two pyridinyl nitrogen atoms respectively, as corroborated by. Electronic spectra, FTIR, spectroscopy amusement indicated that all the metal complexes ad

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 02 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Pharmaceutical Research
Association between Serum Leptin Level and Insulin Resistance in Acromegalic Iraqi Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Endocrine Practice
Abstract #1597564: Insulin Autoimmune Syndrome in an Iraqi Patient With Myasthenia Gravis and Unexplained Hypoglycemia: Rare Coexistence
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Publication Date
Mon Apr 08 2024
Journal Name
Biomed Research International
Evaluation of High-Performance Polyether Ether Ketone Polymer Treated with Piranha Solution and Epigallocatechin-3-Gallate Coating
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Background. Dental implantation has become a standard procedure with high success rates, relying on achieving osseointegration between the implant surface and surrounding bone tissue. Polyether ether ketone (PEEK) is a promising alternative to traditional dental implant materials like titanium, but its osseointegration capabilities are limited due to its hydrophobic nature and reduced surface roughness. Objective. The aim of the study is to increase the surface roughness and hydrophilicity of PEEK by treating the surface with piranha solution and then coating the surface with epigallocatechin-3-gallate (EGCG) by electrospraying technique. Materials and Methods. The study includes four groups intended to investigate the effect of pir

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Multidisciplinary Healthcare
Development and Initial Validation of Stigma Towards Healthcare Providers Working with COVID-19 Patients Scale (S19-HCPs)
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Publication Date
Wed Aug 10 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Biomaterials
Use of Eggshells as Bone Grafts around Commercially Pure Titanium Implant Screws Coated with Nano Calcium Sulfate
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Background. Implant insertion in regions with poor bone quantity, such as the posterior maxilla, is potentially associated with an increased rate of implant failure. Calcium sulfate can be used as the coating material for commercially pure titanium (CpTi) and as the bone graft material around implants when bound to eggshell powder to enhance the bone quality and quantity of bone defect regions. This study performed a torque removal test to evaluate the effectiveness of eggshell powder as a bone substitute for filling bone defects around CpTi-coated implants coated with nanocrystalline calcium sulfate. Materials and Methods. Eighty screw implant designs were used in the tibiae of 20 white New Zealand rabbits. A total of uncoated 20 s

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 25 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Comparison Between Conventional and Supersaturable Self-nanoemulsion Loaded with Nebivolol: Preparation and In-vitro/Ex-vivo Evaluation
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Nebivolol (NBH) is a third-generation B1-blocker with high selectivity and vasodilation activity. Nevertheless, nebivolol exhibits low oral bioavailability, which may adversely affect its efficacy. Recently, supersaturable self-nanoemulsion (Su-SNE) is an advanced SNE approach that can address low bioavailability The study aims to prepare nebivolol-loaded Su-SNE by reduction the amount of the prepared conventional SNE to half. Besides, an appropriate polymer type and concentration to prevent NBH precipitation upon oral administration have investigated.. A conventional self-nanoemulsion (formula A) was prepared by dissolving NBH in 500 mg vehicle mixture of imwitor®988: cremophor-EL: propylene glycol. Then, eight Su-SNE formul

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 10 2019
Journal Name
Proceedings Of The Institution Of Mechanical Engineers, Part H: Journal Of Engineering In Medicine
The speed, reflection and intensity of waves propagating in flexible tubes with aneurysm and stenosis: Experimental investigation
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A localized stenosis or aneurysm is a discontinuity that presents the pulse wave produced by the contracting heart with a reflection site. However, neither wave speed ( c) in these discontinuities nor the size of reflection in relation to the size of the discontinuity has been adequately studied before. Therefore, the aim of this work is to study the propagation of waves traversing flexible tubes in the presence of aneurysm and stenosis in vitro. We manufactured different sized four stenosis and four aneurysm silicone sections, connected one at a time to a flexible ‘mother’ tube, at the inlet of which a single semi-sinusoidal wave was generated. Pressure and velocity were measured simultaneously 25 cm downstream the inlet of th

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