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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 15 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Assessment of surface microhardness of enamel surface treated with Nano- HAP serum before and after bleaching
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Background: Although bleaching is typically considered a safe procedure, various investigations have found minor negative effects and changes in mineral composition. The aim was to Evaluate and compare the efficacy of using Nanohydroxyapatite serum on surface microhardness of enamel surface before and after bleaching with chemically cured Boost bleaching. Material and methods: ten sound human permanent upper and lower premolar teeth were used and their roots were removed 2 mm apically to the cementoenamel junction, the crowns were sectioned mesiodistally into two halves buccal and lingual/palatal, the buccal surface was further subdivided into two halves. The samples were embeded in an acrylic resin, resulting in 30 specimens divide

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study of Malondialdehyde Levels in sera, RBCs and Tissues homogenate of Iraqi Women With Breast Tumors
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Breast tumors patients generally have more oxidative stress than normal females. This was clear from a highly significant elevation (P<0.05) in malondialdehyde level in RBCs, serum and tissue of all patients groups with breast cancer as compared with control group. In this study we had found that free radicals in malignant breast tumors were higher than benign tumors, therefore the MDA might be used as a marker for prognosis of the disease.

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 10 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Thermal conductivity and diffusion coefficient of polymer blend 80%EP/20%UPE reinforced with sand particles
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New polymer blend with enhanced properties was prepared from (80 %) epoxy resin (Ep), (20%) unsaturated polyester resin (UPE) as a matrix material. The as-obtained polymer blend was further reinforced by adding Sand particles of particle size (53 μm) with various weight fraction (5, 10, 15, 20 %). Thermal conductivity and sorption measurements are performed in order to determine diffusion coefficient in different chemical solutions (NaOH, HCl) with concentration (0.3N) after immersion for specific period of time (30 days). The obtained results demonstrate that the addition of sand powder to (80%EP/20%UPE) blend leads to an increase of thermal conductivity, with an optimum/minimum diffusion coefficient in (HCl)/(NaOH), respectively.

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 21 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Health Sciences
Effect of x- ray on the treatment of breast cancer combined with amygdalin and doxorubicin separately
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Background: Radiation therapy has the ability to destroy healthy cells in addition to cancer cells in the area being treated. However, when radiation combines with doxorubicin, it becomes more effective on breast cancer treatment. Objective: This study aims to clarify the effect of X-ray from LINAC combined with amygdalin and doxorubicin on breast cancer treatment, and the possibility of using amygdalin with X-ray instead of doxorubicin for the breast cancer treatment. Method: Two cell lines were used in this study, the first one was MCF-7 cell line and second one was WRL- 68 normal cell line. These cells were preserved in liquid nitrogen, prepared, developed and tested in the (place). The effect of three x-ray doses combined with a

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Publication Date
Thu May 04 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Indian Association Of Biomedical Scientists
“Relationship between Cathepsin K and Total oxidative state in diabetes mellitus Iraqi Women patients with osteoporosis
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Introduction and Aim: Diabetes mellitus patients almost always struggle with a metabolic condition known as chronic hyperglycemia. According to the World Health Organization, osteoporosis is a progressive systemic skeletal disorder that is characterized by decreasing bone mass and microstructural breakdown of bone tissue that increases susceptibility to fracture and increased risk of breaking a bone. Here, we aimed to compare the levels of CatK and total oxidative state in patients with diabetes and osteoporosis among the female Iraqi population and study the possible relationship between them. Materials and Methods: This study included 40 females with diabetes (Group G1), 40 with diabetes and osteoporosis (Group G2) and 40 normal healthy f

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Bionatura
Detection of lukf-pv gene in Staphylococcus aureus isolated from pregnant women with Urinary tract infection
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Publication Date
Wed May 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Drugs In Dermatology (jdd)
Melanocytes Transplantation in Patients With Vitiligo Using Needling Micrografting Technique - JDDonline - Journal of Drugs in Dermatology
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AbstractBACKGROUND: Some cases of vitiligo require melanocyte transplantation, but these surgical techniques have varying degrees of success. OBJECTIVES: To perform melanocytes transplantion in patients with vitiligo using a new needling micrografting technique. PATIENTS and METHODS: This interventional case study took place at the Department of Dermatology and Venereology at Baghdad Teaching Hospital from December 2010 to September 2011. Twelve patients with vitiligo were included. A split-thickness skin graft was taken from the normal area and cut into micropieces ranging from 0.1 mm to 0.3 mm in diameter. The recipient area was anesthetized, and the micrografts were then implanted into the dermis using the needling technique. The number

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 03 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Diagnostic Medical Sonography
The Diagnostic Accuracy of Sonography, With Graded Compression to Image Acute Appendicitis Compared to Histopathologic Results
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Acute appendicitis is the most common surgical abdominal emergency. Its clinical diagnosis remains a challenge to surgeons, so different imaging options were introduced to improve diagnostic accuracy. Among these imaging modality choices, diagnostic medical sonography (DMS) is a simple, easily available, and cost effective clinical tool. The purpose of this study was to assess the accuracy of DMS, in the diagnosis of acute appendicitis compared to the histopathology report, as a gold standard. Between May 2015 and May 2016, 215 patients with suspected appendicitis were examined with DMS. The DMS findings were recorded as positive and negative for acute appendicitis and compared with the histopathological results, as a gold standard

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effectiveness of the Iraqi banking system in dealing with the effects of fiscal austerity policy
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Abstract:

    Under the state scenario, fiscal policy will not be able to use the oil surpluses optimally and economically and society, as long as these surpluses are not directed by public expenditure towards new productive investments and by following the path of fiscal policy after one year 2003 and until 2013 we note that it is based on the method of spending (excessive) consumption, and did not take any action towards the budget deficit planned at the beginning of the fiscal year, and the actual surplus at the end of the fiscal year, which represents the highest expenditure in the budget, Salaries and wages of workers in various government agencies with the expansion of spending on the security side.&n

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 20 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
Form and content encryption with digital designs in women's contemporary fabrics: زينب عبد علي محسن الزبيدي
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My research to study the processes of the creation of shapes and encrypt any encryption in design forms and contents of computer technology as the creative property of definable and renewal, change and transformation process of transformative theme of shape, form and content encryption process in textile designs lets us know the meaning or substance which may be invisible to the encryption in the digital design of fabrics is a recruitment ideas modern and refined through a technique to accomplish the work of a beautiful audiences with novelty and innovation. The search includes four chapters:1Chapter I deal with the problem of research and its current research (form and content encryption with digital designs in women's contemporary fabr

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