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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 17 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A New Cipher Based on Feistel Structure and Chaotic Maps
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Chaotic systems have been proved to be useful and effective for cryptography. Through this work, a new Feistel cipher depend upon chaos systems and Feistel network structure with dynamic secret key size according to the message size have been proposed. Compared with the classical traditional ciphers like Feistel-based structure ciphers, Data Encryption Standards (DES), is the common example of Feistel-based ciphers, the process of confusion and diffusion, will contains the dynamical permutation choice boxes, dynamical substitution choice boxes, which will be generated once and hence, considered static,

            While using chaotic maps, in the suggested system, called

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2009
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Characterization of CdS quantum dots prepared by a Chemical Method
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The CdS quantum dots were prepared by chemical reaction
of cadmium oleylamine (Cd –oleylamine complex) with the
sulfite-oleylamine (S-oleylamine) with 1:6 mole ratios. The
optical properties structure and spectroscopy of the product
quantum dot were studied. The results show the dependence of the
optical properties on the crystal dimension and the formation of
the trap states in the energy band gap.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
2018 Third Scientific Conference Of Electrical Engineering (scee)
A UWB Monopole Antenna Design based RF Energy Harvesting Technology
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Recently, wireless charging based RF harvesting has interfered our lives [1] significantly through the different applications including biomedical, military, IoT, RF energy harvesting, IT-care, and RFID technologies. Wirelessly powered low energy devices become significantly essential for a wide spectrum of sensing applications [1]. Such devices require for low energy resources from sunlight, mechanical vibration, thermal gradients, convection flows or other forms of harvestable energy [2]. One of the emerging power extraction resources based on passive devices is harvesting radio frequency (RF) signals powers [3]–[5]. Such applications need devices that can be organized in very large numbers, so, making separate node battery impractical.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The Middle East and its Strategic Dimensions: a theoretical study
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Characterized the Middle East has geographic, economic, and geostrategic peculiarities, but it suffers from many problems, such as disagreement over what it means as a concept, or what it represents of a geographic extension. The question is related to the ambiguity surrounding the concept of the Middle East? The purpose of its launch? As it relates to its geostrategic, economic, and geo-cultural importance? And manifestations of this importance? And to what extent he retained his value in the strategies of the major powers? Research hypotheses:

-The multiplicity of concepts for the Middle East region, with international political and Geostrategic interests.- The geostrategic value of the Middle East has made it a focal point for

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 18 2025
Journal Name
International Journal Of Scientific Research In Science, Engineering And Technology
A Comprehensive Review on Cryptography Algorithms: Methods and Comparative Analysis
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The evolution of cryptography has been crucial to preservation subtle information in the digital age. From early cipher algorithms implemented in earliest societies to recent cryptography methods, cryptography has developed alongside developments in computing field. The growing in cyber threats and the increase of comprehensive digital communications have highlighted the significance of selecting effective and robust cryptographic techniques. This article reviews various cryptography algorithms, containing symmetric key and asymmetric key cryptography, via evaluating them according to security asset, complexity, and execution speed. The main outcomes demonstrate the growing trust on elliptic curve cryptography outstanding its capabi

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 20 2022
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
The Homomorphism of Cubic bipolar ideals of a KU-semigroup
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The idea of a homomorphism of a cubic set of a KU-semigroup is studied and the concept of the product between two cubic sets is defined. And then, a new cubic bipolar fuzzy set in this structure is discussed, and some important results are achieved. Also, the product of cubic subsets is discussed and some theorems are proved.

Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Social indications (Marriage websites) - A field study in internet cafes
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Marriage is considered one of the strongest ties that links between two human beings , but after the evolutions that happened in our Arab communities and specifically in the Iraqi community , marriage through the internet websites appeared . this kind of marriage is considered one of the new phenomena that appeared in the present time in many societies. That was through internet websites like yahoo , Facebook and other websites that have chat features.
The Islamic sharia looks negatively at marriage through the internet announcing that this way is harmful for both the man and the woman

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 09 2024
Journal Name
مجلة واسط للعلوم الریاضیة
The development of judo from a historical perspective (1880-1980)
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Judo has witnessed tremendous developments since its inception until the present day. It has been distinguished by its adaptation to the various challenges it has faced throughout the ages. Judo is one of the sports that have been affected by social, technological and cultural changes. These changes reflect its transformation from the traditional Japanese martial art to a global sport practiced. All over the world, therefore, studying the historical development of judo is important, as it provides valuable insights into the development of martial arts over a century, by studying the origins, principles and techniques of judo for the period (1880 - 1980), and also enables us to gain an understanding A deeper understanding of how the art form

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 11 2003
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Microdrop Size Measurement in a Mixing Unit Using Laser Technique
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One of the troublesome duties in chemical industrial units is determining the instantaneous drop size distribution, which is created between two immiscible liquids within such units. In this work a complete system for measuring instantaneous droplet size is constructed. It consists of laser detection system (1mW He-Ne laser), drop generation system (turbine mixer unit), and microphotography system. Two immiscible liquids, water and kerosene were mixed together with different low volume fractions (0.0025, 0.02) of kerosene (as a dispersed phase) in water (as a continuous phase). The experiments were carried out at different rotational speed (1180- 2090 r.p.m) of the turbine mixer. The Sauter mean diameter of the drops was determined by la

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
A Pragmatic Study of Identity Representation in American Political Speeches
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Identity is an influential and flexible concept in social sciences and political studies. The basic sense of identity is looking for uniqueness. In one sense, it is a sign of identification with those we assume they are similar to us or at least in some significant ways they are so. Globalization, migration, modern technologies, media and political conflicts are argued to have a crucial effect on identity representation in terms of the political perspectives specifically in the United States of America. This paper endeavors to investigate how American politicians represent their identities in speeches delivered in different periods of time namely from 2015 to 2018 in terms of the pragmatic paradigm. Three randomly selected speeches by fa

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