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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 29 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The impact of operational risks in electronic banking In the light of the principles of Basel (II): An Empirical Study in some Iraqi banks
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Banks represents financial institutions that influence the economy of any country and their evolution and development is the need to seek all states , communities, maintain and control a guarantee of the beneficiaries investors and to promote confidence, so the specialized organizations trying to set principles and rules must be adhered to and are Basel (II) of the necessary effects to be introduced and work on their application.  Banks exposed by various risks one of them operational risks that have multiple effects on the activity of the institution itself, as well as the national economy, so this study was to find out what those effects and to find solutions and appropriate proposals to avoid Iraqi banks from the effects of risk,

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences And Research
Synthesis of some Schiff base metal complexes involving trimethoprim and 2'-amino-4-chlorobenzophenone: Spectral, thermal, DNA Cleavage antimicrobial,antifungal and Cytotoxic activity studies
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In study of effective bioactive compounds, we have synthesized the Co((ІІ), Mn(ІІ), Fe(ІІ), Cu(ІІ), Ni(ІІ), and Zn(ІІ) complexes of the Schiff base derived from trimethoprim and2'-amino-4-chlorobenzophenone and characterized by spectroscopic (NMR, IR, Mass, UV–vis,), analytical, TGA studies and magnetic data .The solution electronic spectral study suggests the stoichiometry of the synthesized complexes and Elemental analysis detected the square planer and octahedral geometry of the compounds. The prepared metal complexes presented promoted efficiency versus the screened bacterial (Escherichia Coli and Staphylococcus aureus) antibacterial efficacy against (Staphylococcus aureus, Salmonella spp., E. coli, Vibrio spp., Pseud

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 02 2022
Journal Name
Neuroquantology
The effect of the relationship of leptin hormone and live body weight on some chemical characteristics of the blood serum of local laying hens
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The study was conducted out at the Ministry of Agriculture's Poultry Research Station/Animal ResourcesDepartment/Agricultural Research Center. To see how body weight (BW) and leptin hormone (LEP) levels inbreeder blood affect fertility and hatchability. 140 Iraqi local laying chickens (120 females + 20 males) aged 28weeks were used in the study. Following the numbering of The experiment was divided into three periods,each lasting 28 days, during which the breeder's live body weight was recorded and divided into two categories(greater than 1.5 kg and less than 1.5 kg), and blood samples were collected at the end of each period todetermine the concentration of leptin hormone in the breeders' blood. For comparison between mothers'performance,

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 24 2021
Journal Name
Ibero-american Journal Of Exercise And Sports Psychology
The effect of an educational curriculum based on metacognitive skills in teaching some offensive skills on the specialized school of basketball in Baghdad governorate
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The educational process depends on the means of conveying information from the teacher to the learner. Whenever appropriate, this means the learning process takes place better, faster, and with less effort, and the problem of research lies. The players lack learning in the meta-knowledge curriculum in basketball offensive skills than offensive skills. The aim of the research is to identify the effect of training exercises for educational numbers based on metacognitive skills in teaching some offensive skills with basketball. As for the research assignment, there are statistically significant differences between the results of the pre and post tests for the experimental group and in favor of the post tests. The experimental approach was used

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 28 2025
Journal Name
Modern Sport
Comparison of the speed of hospitalization according to the training load of some physiological and biochemical variables of badminton players and runner800 m youth
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It is necessary to use the means of recovery and other means that help to get rid of the effects of fatigue, as the game of badminton and the effectiveness of running 800 meters fall within the mixed system with the superiority of the anaerobic system by more than the air system, so requires the development of energy systems In proportion to the time of the match for badminton players and their travels and high performance and ability to tolerate the high level of lactic acid in the muscles and blood and increase the pain associated with the fatigue that occurs during the performance. In light of the physical and physiological processes of these actions N it should seek through training programs to develop your endurance and wind energy sys

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 23 2016
Journal Name
Journal University Of Kerbala
Synthesis and Characterization of Some Metal Complexes of [2-chloro-N-(1,5-dimethyl-3-oxo-2-phenyl-2,3-dihydro-1Hpyrazol-4-ylcarbamothioyl)acetamide] (L)
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A new ligand [ 2-chloro-N- (1,5-dimethyl-3-oxo-2-phenyl-2,3-dihydro -1H-pyrazol- 4- ylcarbamothioyl)acetamide](L) was synthesized by reacting the Chloro acetyl isothiocyanate with 4-aminoantipyrine,The ligand was characterized by(C HNS) elemental microanalysis and the spectral measurements including Uv-Vis ,IR ,1H and13C NMR spectra, some transition metals complex of this ligand were prepared and characterized by Uv-Vis, FT-IR spectra, conductivity measurements, magnetic susceptibility and atomic absorption. From the obtained results the molecular formula of all prepared complexes were [M(L)2(H2O)2]Cl2 (M+2 =Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Hg),the proposed geometrical structure for all complexes were octahedra

Publication Date
Mon Dec 25 2017
Journal Name
Biomedical And Pharmacology Journal
Effect of the Addition of Polyamide (Nylon 6) Micro-Particles on Some Mechanical Properties of RTV Maxillofacial Silicone Elastomer Before and After Artificial Aging
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Publication Date
Sun Sep 03 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Specific Activities of Natural Radionuclides and Annual Effective Dose Due to the Intake of Some Types of Children Powdered Milk Available in Baghdad Markets
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In this research the specific activity of natural radionuclides 226Ra, 232Th and 40K were determined by sodium iodide enhanced by thallium NaI(TI) detector and assessed the annual effective dose in Dielac 1 and 2 and Nactalia 1 and 2 for children of less than 1 year which are available in Baghdad markets. The specific activity of 40K has the greater value in all the types which is in the range of allowed levels globally that suggested by UNSCEAR. The mean value of annual effective doses were 2.92, 4.005 and 1.6325 mSv/y for 226Ra, 232Th and 40K respectively.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation of performance of some industrial companies In the default reference comparison method Field study in the public companies of cement (Iraqi - North - South
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The increasing Global Competitive and the continuous improvement in information technology has led the way to the development of the modern systems and using modern techniques. One of these techniques is benchmarking style and Total Quality Management all of them are used to improve the production process and target rid from the losts on the other side.

The Benchmarking style has become a very important for all the industrial systems and the serving systems as well. And an instrument to improve their performance specially those which are suffering from the highness of the costs or waste in time on the other side.

This study aims to depend on virtual Benchmarking style in the eval

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Isolation and Identification of Fungi from Clinical Samples of Diabetic Patients and Studying the Anti-Fungal Activity of Some Natural Oils on Isolated Fungi
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Isolation of fungi was performed from February to July, 2019. One hundred clinical specimens were collected from King Abdullah Hospital (KAH) Bisha, Saudi Arabia. Samples were collected from twenty patients of different ages (30 - 70 years old) ten males and ten females. The samples were collected from patients with the two types of diabetics. Specimens included blood, hair, nail, oral swabs and skin.  Specimens were inoculated on Sabourauds Dextrose agar containing chloramphenicol. Thirteen fungal species were isolated and identified. The isolated species were: Aspergillus flavus, A. niger, A. terrus, A. nidulans, A. fumigatus, Candida albicans, C. krusei, C. parapsilosis, C. Tropicalis, Curvularia lunata, Fusarium solani, Penicill

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