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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The Mechanical Behavior Of Materials
Analysis of concrete beams reinforced by GFRP bars with varying parameters
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Abstract<p>Structural buildings consist of concrete and steel, and these buildings have confronted many challenges from various aggressive environments against the materials manufactured from them. It contains high water levels and buildings whose concrete cover may be damaged and thus lead to the deterioration and corrosion of steel. It was important to have an alternative to steel, such as the glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP), which is distinguished by its great effectiveness in resisting corrosion, as well as its strong tensile resistance. Still, one of its drawbacks is that it has a low modulus of elasticity. This research article aims to conduct a numerical study using the nonlinear fi</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Structural and Morphological Characterization of MEH-PPV Nanocomposite Doped with FeCl3
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Poly [2-methoxy-5-(2-ethylhexyloxy)-1, 4-phenylenevinyl] (MEH-PPV) thin films were created in this study using both spin coating and drop casting processes. MEH-PPV thin films generated by Ferric Chloride (FeCl3) doping (0.03, 0.06, 0.09, and 0.12 wt%) were studied for some physical features using Fourier-Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FE-SEM), and Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDX). An FTIR test showed that there was no chemical reaction that occurred between Ferric Chloride (FeCl3) and MEH-PPV, but rather a physical one, that is, an organic material composite occurred. As for FE-SEM, the pure sample MEH-PPV formed uniformly, but when FeCl3 was added by weight, we have differ

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
Steganography using dual tree complex wavelet transform with LSB indicator technique
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Image steganography is undoubtedly significant in the field of secure multimedia communication. The undetectability and high payload capacity are two of the important characteristics of any form of steganography. In this paper, the level of image security is improved by combining the steganography and cryptography techniques in order to produce the secured image. The proposed method depends on using LSBs as an indicator for hiding encrypted bits in dual tree complex wavelet coefficient DT-CWT. The cover image is divided into non overlapping blocks of size (3*3). After that, a Key is produced by extracting the center pixel (pc) from each block to encrypt each character in the secret text. The cover image is converted using DT-CWT, then the p

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Publication Date
Wed May 26 2021
Journal Name
Communications In Mathematical Biology And Neuroscience
Modelling and stability analysis of the competitional ecological model with harvesting
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The interplay of predation, competition between species and harvesting is one of the most critical aspects of the environment. This paper involves exploring the dynamics of four species' interactions. The system includes two competitive prey and two predators; the first prey is preyed on by the first predator, with the former representing an additional food source for the latter. While the second prey is not exposed to predation but rather is exposed to the harvest. The existence of possible equilibria is found. Conditions of local and global stability for the equilibria are derived. To corroborate our findings, we constructed time series to illustrate the existence and the stability of equilibria numerically by varying the different values

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Research In Pharmacy
Preparation and evaluation of transdermal gel loaded with spanlastics containing meloxicam
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A transdermal drug delivery system (TDDS) is characterized by the application of medications onto the skin's surface to deliver drugs at a controlled and predefined rate through the skin. Spanlastics, an elastic nanovesicle capable of transporting various pharmacological substances, shows promise as a drug delivery carrier. It offers numerous advantages over traditional vesicular systems applied topically, including enhanced stability, flexibility in penetration, and improved targeting capabilities. This study aims to develop meloxicam (MX)-loaded spanlastics gel as skin delivery carriers and to look into the effects of formulation factors like Tween80, Brij 35, and carbopol concentration on the properties of spanlastics gel, like pH, drug

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering Science And Technology
THERMAL PERFORMANCE OF MULTIPLE- PASS SOLAR AIR HEATER WITH PIN FINS
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Publication Date
Fri Apr 29 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Agricultural Sciences
EFFECT OF OZONE ENRICHMENT AND SPRAYING WITH COCONUT WATER AND MORINGA EXTRACT ON VEGETATIVE GROWTH AND YIELD OF BROCCOLI PLANT UNDER HYDROPONIC SYSTEM WITH MODIFIED NFT TECHNOLOGY
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This study was carried out at University of Baghdad - College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences - Research Station B during the autumn season 2019-2020, in order to evaluate the effect of Ozone and the foliar application of coconut water and moringa extract on the growth of broccoli plant grown in modified NFT film technology. A factorial experiment (2*5) was carried out within Nested Design with three replicates. The ozone treatment was distributed into the main plots which consisted of oxygen (O2) and ozone (O3). The foliar application of organic nutrients were distributed randomly within each replicate including five treatments, which were the control treatment (T0), Coconut water with two concentrations of 50 (T1) and 100 ml.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 29 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Agricultural Sciences
EFFECT OF OZONE ENRICHMENT AND SPRAYING WITH ORGANIC NUTRIENT ON NUTRIENT AND WATER USE EFFICIENCY AND FERTILIZER PRODUCTIVITY OF BROCCOLI PLANT CULTIVATED HYDROPONICALLY WITH MODIFIED NFT TECHNOLOGY.
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This study was carried out at University of Baghdad - College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences - research station B during the fall season of 2019-2020, in order to evaluate the effect of Ozone enrichment and the foliar application of organic nutrient  on nutrient and water use efficiency and fertilizer productivity of broccoli plant using the modified NFT film technology. A factorial experiment (2*5) was carried out within Nested Design with three replicates. The ozone treatment was distributed into the main plots which consisted of oxygen (O2) and ozone (O3). The foliar application of organic nutrients were distributed randomly within each replicate including five treatments, which were the control treatment (T0), Coconut wat

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Global Pharma Technology
Calculation of Stabilization Energy of Tetrahedrane with its Nitrogen Substituted Derivatives by DFT Method and Driving an Empirical Relation Connect it with Charge Functions of the Molecule
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In this work the strain energy of tetrahedrane and its nitrogen substituted molecules were calculated by isodesmic reaction method according to DFT quantum chemical fashion, the used basis set was 6-31G/B3-LYP, in addition all structures were optimized by RM1 semi-empirical method. From the obtained data we estimate an empirical equation connect between strain energy of the molecule with charge functions represented by dipole moment of the molecule plus accumulated charge density involved within the tetrahedron frame plus the number of nitrogen atoms. The results indicate the charge spreading factors by polarization and processes are the most important factors in decreasing the strain energy.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 21 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Foreign Propaganda in the Electronic Press about the Syrian Crisis A Comparative Study of the Sites of Russia Today and Alhurra - A research drawn from a Master Degree thesis
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The research problem lies in the ambiguity of the usage of propaganda contents by two main media outlets (the Russian RT and American Alhurra) in their news coverage of the Syrian crisis through their websites and the methods used by them to convince users taking into account the mutual propaganda conflict between the United States and Russia in the war against Syria. The objectives of the research can be represented by the following: investigating the contents of American and Russian electronic propaganda towards Syrian crisis.
• Identifying the contents that received most of the coverage in the Syrian crisis by the two news outlets.
• Identifying the terms and phrases that have been most used by the websites of RT and Alhurr

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