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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 11 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Study the Characterization of Adding Polymer-Surfactant Agent on the Drag Reduction Phenomena in Pipeline Flow System
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  Abstract    

In this study, the effect of carboxylic methyl cellulose (CMC), and sodium dodcyl benzene sulfonate (SDBS) as an aqueous solution on the drag reduction was investigated. Different concentrations of (CMC) and (SDBS) such as (50, 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, 350, 400, 450, and 500 ppm) were used to analyze the aqueous solution properties, including surface tension, conductivity, and shear viscosity. The optimum four concentrations (i.e., 50, 100, 200, and 300 ppm) of fluid properties were utilized to find their effect on the drag reduction. Two different PVC pipe diameters (i.e., 1" and 3/4") were used in this work. The  results showed that blending CMC with SDBS gives

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Int. J. Nonlinear Anal. Appl.
A topology on a ring part of is-algebra
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Publication Date
Thu Mar 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Linking the Timing of Deposition and Organic Matter Richness of the Gulneri Formation of Northern Iraq to the Global Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE 2): Implications to better constrain the Depositional Models of Iraqi's Oil Source Beds and their Timing of De
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Global oceanic anoxic events (OAEs) are events of immense importance for a variety of reasons. For instance, they are not only behind most if not all of the mass extinctions which took place during the Cenozoic era, but they are the harbinger for the world's best oil source beds, which humanity depends on to satisfy its energy need. In spite of this, there was little effort to document their presence in Iraq, to fill in for the void here, and as a first step, this paper will attempt to establish a cause and effect relationship between OAE 2 and the Gulneri Formation timing of deposition and organic matter richness. This was done by showing the prevalent occurrence of the globally known OAE 2 positive ∂13Corg excursion and the unique ro

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 25 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Drug Delivery Technology
Synthesis, Characterization Of Some Metal Complexes With 3-(Benzo[d]Thaizole-2-Yl)-9-Oxo-6,7,7a,9-Tertrahydro-2H-2,10:4,7-Diepoxyfuro [3,2-f][1,5,3] Dioxazonine–2,4 (3H)–Dicarboxylic Acid. Hydro-chloride (L–as–am) and Study their Biological Activity
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The reaction of 2-amino-benzothiazole with bis [O,O-2,3,O,O – 5,6 – (chloro(carboxylic) methiylidene) ] – L – ascorbic acid (L-AsCl2) gave new product 3-(Benzo[d]Thaizole-2-Yl) – 9-Oxo-6,7,7a,9-Tertrahydro-2H-2,10:4,7-Diepoxyfuro [3,2-f][1,5,3] Dioxazonine – 2,4 (3H) – Dicarboxylic Acid, Hydro-chloride (L-as-am)), which has been insulated and identified by (C, H, N) elemental microanalysis (Ft-IR),(U.v–vis), mass spectroscopy and H-NMR techniques. The (L-as am) ligand complexes were obtained by the reaction of (L-as-am) with [M(II) = Co,Ni,Cu, and Zn] metal ions. The synthesized complexes are characterized by Uv–Visible (Ft –IR), mass spectroscopy molar ratio, molar conductivity, and Magnetic susceptibility techniques. (

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Employing the indicators of stereotypes and the dimensions of organizational clarity and their role in achieving the planned organizational behavior Analytical study on a sample of workers in some departments of the Faculties of Engineering, University of
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The current research examines the employment of indicators of stereotypes and the dimensions of organizational clarification to achieve planned organizational behaviour on a sample of employees in a number of departments of the Faculties of Engineering, University of Kufa, for a sample of (122) teaching staff. This research proposes the use of positive indicators of stereotypes for both the organization and employees and their awareness of what they want to obtain and what should be done for both parties and the removal of organizational clarity represented by the functional dimension that explores to what degree the employee's understanding of the internal strategy of the organization and the strategic dimension that searches fo

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 12 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
An evaluation of the influence of different finishing lines on the fracture strength of full contour zirconia CAD/CAM and heat press all-ceramic crowns
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ABSTRACT Background: One of the major problems of all ceramic restorations is their probable fracture against the occlusal forces. The objective of this in vitro study was to evaluate the effect of two gingival finishing lines (90°shoulder and deep chamfer) on the fracture resistance of full contour CAD/CAM and heat press all-ceramic crowns. Materials and Methods: Thirty two maxillary first premolars were prepared to receive full contour CAD/CAM (zolid) and heat press (Cergo Kiss) ceramic crowns using a special paralleling device (Parallel-A-Prep). The teeth were divided into four groups according to the type of finishing line prepared. Each crown was cemented to its corresponding tooth using self-etch, self-adhesive dual cure resin ceme

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 07 2018
Journal Name
Asian Journal Of Pharmaceutical And Clinical Research
INVESTIGATING THE EFFECT OF DIFFERENT GRADES AND CONCENTRATIONS OF PH‑SENSITIVE POLYMER ON PREPARATION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF LIDOCAINE HYDROCHLORIDE AS IN SITU GEL BUCCAL SPRAY
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Objective: The present study was aimed to develop a pH-triggered in situ gel for local release of lidocaine hydrochloride (lidocaine HCL) in the buccal cavity to improve the anesthetic effect of this amino amide drug which has very high water solubility. The formulations were introduced to the oral cavity as a spray to improve compliance and for easier administration.Methods: In this work, two grades of carbopol (934 and 940)-based in situ gel spray were designed. The formulations containing lidocaine HCl 5% were prepared by mixing different concentrations of carbopol with xanthan gum. Eight formulations were investigated and evaluated for gelation capacity, spray angle, volume of solution delivered per each actuation, rheological p

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 25 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Effects of Two Different Doses of Zinc Sulfate on Serum Troponin I 3 Enzyme Level and Cardiac Malondialdehyde Contents in Mitoxantrone-Induced Cardiotoxicity in Rats
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Abstract

   Mitoxantrone is an antitumor agent used in the treatment of breast and prostate cancer, acute leukemia, lymphoma, and also in the treatment of multiple sclerosis due to its immunosuppressive properties. The mitoxantrone's cardiotoxicity is irreversible, dose-dependent, and it may occur years after treatment. Zinc is considered as an essential mineral for cell division and the synthesis of DNA and protein; furthermore, such mineral has an important role in states of cardiovascular diseases; and may have protective effects in coronary artery disease and cardiomyopathy.

Objective: The current study is designed to investigate effects of two different doses of zinc sulfat

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Commercial banks in Iraq had applied in practice different forms of its activities upon surplus funds that deposited from individual, firms and many governments units
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These deposits take many forms like current acc, deposits in order to growth and serve national economy Various in varicose perspectives .

The problem of this paper its concern with un applied the mathematical models that used in profitability analysis of current acc , and deposits in view of risk, profit efficiency and financial leverage for this reason the paper discussion use the cumulate mathematical model to solve these problem, that content three variables that be used to measuring profitability by consequent replacement method by stable base and by moving base for 2007 – 2009 applied the data collect from Iraq middle east bank.           &nbs

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 15 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The effect of nano-hydroxy apatite on re-mineralize white spot lesions prior to orthodontic adhesive removal by different techniques (An In vitro comparative study)
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Background: White-spot lesion is one of the problems associated with the fixed orthodontic treatment. The aims of this in-vitro study were to investigate enamel damage depth on adhesive removal when the adhesive were surrounded by sound, demineralized or demineralized enamel that had been re-mineralized prior to adhesive removal using 10% Nano-Hydroxy apatite and to determine the effect of three different adhesive removal techniques. Materials and methods: Composite resin adhesive (3M Unitek) was bonded to 60 human upper premolars teeth which were randomly divided in to three groups each containing ten sound teeth and ten teeth with demineralized and re-mineralized lesions adjacent to the adhesive. A window of 2 mm was prepared on the bucca

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