The Purpose of this research is a comparison between two types of multivariate GARCH models BEKK and DVECH to forecast using financial time series which are the series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate with dollar, the global daily of Oil price with dollar and the global daily of gold price with dollar for the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016.The estimation, testing and forecasting process has been computed through the program RATS. Three time series have been transferred to the three asset returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung- Box, Multivariate Q and Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models with comparison between the estimation and forecasting models based on the criterion, mean Squared error (MSE), compared to the Suitability of these two models of the nature of the data and the ability to Capture the volatility. We concluded that BEKK is better than DVECH in forecasting from the model.
Abstract
The methods of the Principal Components and Partial Least Squares can be regard very important methods in the regression analysis, whe
... Show MoreThis current study aimed to explore the mediation effects of mother's mental health symptoms between marital adjustment and child development aspects. (666) participants of mothers and their children were the sample of the study. The researchers used the marital adjustment scale prepared by Manson, Morse, Lerner, Arthur, as well as, a package of tests for some aspects of growth Kindergarten children prepared by Kenawi and Mohamed (1999). In addition, theyemployed a list of modified symptoms (Symptom Checklist-90- Revised (SCL) -90-, prepared by Derogatis, Lipman and Lipogun & Cov (1976), The results of the current study showed there is a statistically significant relationship between marital adjustment and the symptoms of mental diso
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... Show MoreThe issue of the public in the directions and theories of the theater director in the world theater, especially after the emergence of realism and the crystallization of the term direction and the definition of the role of the director in 1850 AD by the Duke Max Mengen took different paths to the Greek, Roman and even Elizabethan audience because it was here subjected to the theatrical equation from its production and presentation due to the fact that the theatrical performance is a technical artistic production, and the audience participation, watching and consumption, and here the participation of the audience was subjected to three directions: the enlightenment in the sense of arousing sense, the incitement in the se
... Show MoreThe species of Cr (III), Cr (VI) in biological samples and V(IV), V(V) in foods & plants samples were determined by spectrophotometric methods. Integrated spectral studies of complexes [Cr (III, VI)-DPC], [Cr (VI)-bipy], [VO-SH], [V (V)-8-HQ] which included a study of the optimum conditions for the complexes formation by the investigation of the chemical and physical variables affecting each complex formation, the nature of complexes, the preparation of calibration curves of the complexes and treated the resulted data by modern statistical methods and study the interfering species. Interferences were removed to explain the reactions thermodynamically by determining Ecell, Keq. and ∆G values and includes a study of
... Show MoreThis research aims to test the causal relationship long-and short-run between the price of gold the global crude oil price and the exchange rate of the dollar and how you can take advantage of the nature of this relationship, particularly in the Arab oil states that achieve huge surpluses, including Iraq and how to keep on the purchasing power of these surpluses or reduce the levels of risk.
The problem is that the Arab oil countries, adversely affected, as a result of that relationship, due to the fact that its role confined to the sale of crude oil only. They do not have control in the dollar, then they are not able to take advantage of its impact on the price of gold the fact that gold is effective pr
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