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Using Time Series Methods To Modify The Seasonal Variations in the Consumer Price Index
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     As is  known that the consumer price index (CPI) is one of the most important  price indices because of its direct effect on the welfare of the individual and his living.

       We have been address the problem of Strongly  seasonal  commodities in calculating  (CPI) and identifying some of the solution.

   We have  used an actual data  for a set of commodities (including strongly seasonal commodities) to calculate the index price by using (Annual Basket With Carry Forward Prices method) . Although this method can be successfully used in the context of seasonal  commodities  the  index  does not  get  rid  of  the  tremendous  season  fluctuations  .       

     In order to use (CPI) in  measuring  the general inflation and monthly or quarterly comparison ,we must  first  decompose the seasonal component and eliminate  its effect on the (CPI) series to get  a seasonal adjusted series of (CPI) .

     Many statistical methods are used to analysis (CPI) series, and one of these methods is the method of time series that takes into account the seasonal variations in the study of phenomena.

test to  Ljung-Box  We have used Box-Jenkens method in models building and then test the modesl ,also we have found the seasonal adjusted series by using time series  method

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 10 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
ENCAPSULATION OF OMEGA-3 FATTY ACID USING NANOTECHNOLOGY TO IMPROVE ITS THERMAL STABILITY AND USE IT TO ENRICHING THE YOGURT: ENCAPSULATION OF OMEGA-3 FATTY ACID USING NANOTECHNOLOGY TO IMPROVE ITS THERMAL STABILITY AND USE IT TO ENRICHING THE YOGURT
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Concentrations 25, 50 and 100 mg of nano-capsules linolenic acid and non-capsulated fatty acid for 1kg of Milk was used for yogurt manufacture. The results showed no significant differences in the ratio of titration acidity and pH values between all processed treatments at the beginning and during of period storage. The treatments was added to it coated omega-3 by nano method were the least exposed to the oxidation process from the non-capsules omega-3, And for shield of The poly lactic acid had a significant role in the protection of alpha-linolenic acid against lipolysis by the formation of a protective layer to protect the acid from the activity of lipases enzymes, and the addition of fatty acid linolenic to milk was determined the gr

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 07 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Seasonal Study for Habitat of Myriophyllum spicatum L. in Al-Burgga Marsh, Hor Al-Hammar, Southern Iraq
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Myriophyllum spicatum distribution in Al-Burgga marsh, Hor Al-Hammar was described in relation to some of the physical-chemical properties for its habitat (water depth, light penetration, water temperature, water salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, Ca+2, Mg+2, reactive NO2=, reactive NO3-1, and reactive PO4-3) during 2011, seasonally. CANOCO ordination program (CCA) was used to analyse the data. Its vegetation cover percentage was with its peak at summer, its value was 90 %, while the lowest value was 20 % in winter. Statistically, Positive relationships for WT, sal., Ca+2, Mg+2, reactive NO2=, reactive NO3-1, and reactive PO4-3 with the vegetation cover percentage were observed. While, negative relationships for WD, pH, and DO with the ve

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 21 2020
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
SEASONAL FLUCTUATION OF STINK BUG MUSTHA SPINULOSA (LEFEBVRE, 1831) (HEMIPTERA, PENTATOMIDAE) ON SOME TREES IN ERBIL CITY
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Phytophagous stink bugs (Hemiptera, Pentatomidae) are economically important insect pests of fruit, vegetable, nut and field crops. This study was carried out during the season of 2013 in orchards within Erbil city, to follow the stink bug Mustha spinulosa (Lefebvre, 1831) seasonal fluctuation on some fruit trees: olive, plum, apricot, pear, apple and almond.
The stink bug reaches its maximum abundance throughout the second week of August (38.2/tree) coinciding with mean temperature and relative humidity of 33.40C and 28.14% respectively, and the highest total mean of the number of the insect was recorded on the olive trees (181.8/tree). The study reveals that the stink bug attacked 22 trees (fruit and forest) while it has not atta

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Some Robust methods for Estimates the power Spectrum in ARMA Models Simulation Study
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Abstract:

Robust statistics Known as, resistance to errors caused by deviation from the stability hypotheses of the statistical operations (Reasonable, Approximately Met, Asymptotically Unbiased, Reasonably Small Bias, Efficient ) in the data selected in a wide range of probability distributions whether they follow a normal distribution or a mixture of other distributions deviations different standard .

power spectrum function lead to, President role in the analysis of Stationary random processes, form stable random variables organized according to time, may be discrete random variables or continuous. It can be described by measuring its total capacity as function in frequency.

<

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 06 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Six Thinking Hats on Creative Thinking Among 10th Grade Female Students in Tulkarm District
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The  purpose of  this study was to investigate the effect of six thinking hats on creative thinking among 10th grade female students in Tulkarm district. The sample comprises two sections of 10th grade female students (n=80) in Adawiya secondary School, The two sections were divided into two groups; one as an experimental group which works with six thinking hats, and the second as control group that learns traditionally. Creative thinking exam was used to measure the creative thinking with reliability (0.88).

The results of the study have shown the following:

There were statistically significant differences at (α ≤ 0.05) in the creative thinking among 10th grade female student

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Compare between simex and Quassi-likelihood methods in estimation of regression function in the presence of measurement error
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       In recent years, the attention of researchers has increased of semi-parametric regression models, because it is possible to integrate the parametric and non-parametric regression models in one and then form a regression model has the potential to deal with the cruse of dimensionality in non-parametric models that occurs through the increasing of explanatory variables. Involved in the analysis and then decreasing the accuracy of the estimation. As well as the privilege of this type of model with flexibility in the application field compared to the parametric models which comply with certain conditions such as knowledge of the distribution of errors or the parametric models may

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Study of Television Advertising and its Impact on Consumer Behavior in a Sample of Children Aged 9-12 Years
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The aim of this study was to study TV advertising and consumer behavior in children and to meet the needs of children. The study included 100 children from Baghdad who were randomly selected from different regions ranging in age from 9-12 years of both males and females. The current research was based on the interview and the completion of special forms prepared for this purpose. This age group was selected for the rare studies conducted on television advertising and limited to different sectors. Data on age and sex were documented, as the results of this study proved The afternoon period was the preferred period for watching the TV show in males, where it was 22%, while the morning period was the female favorite, and it was 23%. The ind

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
Increasing the Setting Time of Local Gypsum (Joss) by the Use of TGP additive
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Abstract<p>This research presents a study of using an additive for the objective of increasing the setting time of a material used in several aspects in the constructional field, this material is “Local-Gypsum” which is locally called “Joss”, and the additive used in this study is “Trees Glue Powder” denoted by “TGP”. Nine mixtures of Local-gypsum (joss) had been experimented in the current study to find their setting time, these mixes were divided into three groups according to their water-joss ratios (W/J) (0.3, 0.4 and 0.5), and each group was sub-divided into three sub-groups according to their TGP contents (0.0%, 0.3% and 0.6%). It was found that, when TGP is added with the </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Influence of the annealing time on the structural properties for Flash evaporated InSb films
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Indium Antimonide (InSb) thin films were grown onto well cleaned glass substrates at substrate temperatures (473 K) by flash evaporation. X-ray diffraction studies confirm the polycrystalline of the films and the films show preferential orientation along the (111) plane .The particle size increases with the increase of annealing time .The transmission spectra of prepared samples were found to be in the range (400-5000 cm-1 ) from FTIR study . This indicates that the crystallinity is improved in the films deposited at higher annealing time.

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