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jeasiq-1439
Using Time Series Methods To Modify The Seasonal Variations in the Consumer Price Index
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     As is  known that the consumer price index (CPI) is one of the most important  price indices because of its direct effect on the welfare of the individual and his living.

       We have been address the problem of Strongly  seasonal  commodities in calculating  (CPI) and identifying some of the solution.

   We have  used an actual data  for a set of commodities (including strongly seasonal commodities) to calculate the index price by using (Annual Basket With Carry Forward Prices method) . Although this method can be successfully used in the context of seasonal  commodities  the  index  does not  get  rid  of  the  tremendous  season  fluctuations  .       

     In order to use (CPI) in  measuring  the general inflation and monthly or quarterly comparison ,we must  first  decompose the seasonal component and eliminate  its effect on the (CPI) series to get  a seasonal adjusted series of (CPI) .

     Many statistical methods are used to analysis (CPI) series, and one of these methods is the method of time series that takes into account the seasonal variations in the study of phenomena.

test to  Ljung-Box  We have used Box-Jenkens method in models building and then test the modesl ,also we have found the seasonal adjusted series by using time series  method

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research obj

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Econometrics analysis of the impact of external shocks on foreign direct investment in Iraq for the period (1995-2016)
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The external shocks are one of the phenomena that the Iraqi economy is exposed to over a period of time. It is referred to as changes and events that come from outside the economic system and extends to many economic variables. However, foreign direct investment may be severely affected due to the extreme sensitivity to changes and local and international developments. This type of trauma and its characteristics to help manage and cope with external shocks, and in order to avoid the standard problems experienced by some models of simple linear regression, multi-linear regression models were used with variables Scientific and other dummy variables .

        The study foun

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفره

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using game theory models to determine the profit maximization policies for PepsiCo and Coca Cola in Baghdad
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(Use of models of game theory in determining the policies to maximize profits for the Pepsi Cola and Coca-Cola in the province of Baghdad)

Due to the importance of the theory of games especially theories of oligopoly in the study of the reality of competition among companies or governments and others the researcher linked theories of oligopoly to Econometrics to include all the policies used by companies after these theories were based on price and quantity only the researcher applied these theories to data taken from Pepsi Cola and Coca-Cola In Baghdad Steps of the solution where stated for the models proposed and solutions where found to be balance points is for the two companies according to the princi

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use Simulation To Differentiate Between Some Modern Methods To the Model GM(1,1) To Find Missing Values And Estimate Parameters With A Practical Application
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Abstract

       The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Using Spatial Analysis Methods to Evaluate the Soil Contamination of Baghdad City, Iraq
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Abstract<p>The current study aims to identify soil pollutants from heavy metals The study utilized 40 topsoil (5 cm) samples, which adapted and divided into seven regions lies in Baghdad governorate, included (Al-Husainya,(Hs) Al-Doura (Do), Sharie Al-Matar (SM), Al-Waziria (Wz), Nharawan (Nh), Abu Ghraib (Abu) and Al-Mahmoodyia (Mh)). Spatial distribution maps of Nickel (Ni), Manganese (Mn), Lead (Pb) and Zinc (Zn) were created for Baghdad city using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The concentrations of four heavy metals in the soil of different area of Baghdad were measured and observed using XRF instrument. The result found highest values of Pb and Zn at the middle of the Baghdad in (Wz</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon May 21 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Using the Input - Output Model in building the economic plan using the computer
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The origin of this technique lies in the analysis of François Kenai (1694-1774), the leader of the School of Naturalists, presented in Tableau Economique. This method was developed by Karl Marx in his analysis of the Departmental Relationships and the nature of these relations in the models of " "He said. The current picture of this type of economic analysis is credited to the Russian economist Vasily Leontif. This analytical model is commonly used in developing economic plans in developing countries (p. 1, p. 86). There are several types of input and output models, such as static model, mobile model, regional models, and so on. However, this research will be confined to the open-ended model, which found areas in practical application.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Some Semi-parametric Methods in Partial Linear Single-Index Model
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The research dealt with a comparative study between some semi-parametric estimation methods to the Partial linear Single Index Model using simulation. There are two approaches to model estimation two-stage procedure and MADE to estimate this model. Simulations were used to study the finite sample performance of estimating methods based on different Single Index models, error variances, and different sample sizes , and the mean average squared errors were used as a comparison criterion between the methods were used. The results showed a preference for the two-stage procedure depending on all the cases that were used

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 28 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Using GIS to identify hazardous earthquake locations in Iran
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The objective of all planning research is to plan for human comfort and safety, and one of the most significant natural dangers to which humans are exposed is earthquake risk; therefore, earthquake risks must be anticipated, and with the advancement of global technology, it is possible to obtain information on earthquake hazards. GIS has been utilized extensively in the field of environmental assessment research due to its high potential, and GIS is a crucial application in seismic risk assessment. This paper examines the methodologies used in recent GIS-based seismic risk studies, their primary environmental impacts on urban areas, and the complexity of the relationship between the applied methodological approaches and the resulting env

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Time-Cost Trade-off to Manage A Project in a Fuzzy Environment
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In this research, the problem of ambiguity of the data for the project of establishing the typical reform complex in Basrah Governorate was eliminated. The blurry of the data represented by the time and cost of the activities was eliminated by using the Ranking function and converting them into normal numbers. Scheduling and managing the Project in the Critical Pathway (CPM) method to find the project completion time in normal conditions in the presence of non-traditional relationships between the activities and the existence of the lead and lag periods. The MS Project was used to find the critical path. The results showed that the project completion time (1309.5) dinars and the total cost has reached (33113017769) dinars and the

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