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Financial Crisis: Forms- Indicators- Models- and Financial Contagion Theoretical - Analytical Study of Asian Crisis
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اسهم تطور ادوات الاسواق المالية والتغيرات العالمية كالعولمة المالية وتحرير الاسواق المالية العالمية في احداث العديد من الازمات ومنها الازمة المالية الدولية التي تعد من اكثر الظواهر ملازمة للاسواق المالية على الرغم من التطورات التي تشهدها تلك الاسواق نتيجة تطور ادواتها المالية وانفتاحها على بعضها البعض. وتتعرض الاسواق المالية الدولية والناشئة  (Emerging Market) منها بشكل خاص الى العديد من الازمات المالية حيث تعرضت تلك الاسواق خلال القرن الماضي للعديد من الأزمات المالية التي أثر بعضها في مختلف قطاعات الدولة  التي امتد تأثيرها لأسواق مالية عالمية أخرى الامر الذي شكل تحديا للادارة المالية في مواجهة تلك الازمات المالية.

اتجهت أدبيات الفكر المالي إلى التركيز على تحليل الأزمات المالية في ضوء الظواهر الحديثة المرتبطة بها كالعدوى المالية (Financial Contagion)، ودور المؤسسات المالية مثل صندوق النقد الدولي ) IMF، International Monetary Funds) لتلافي المخاطر الكبيرة للازمات المالية من خلال التدخل الايجابي على وفق طبيعة كل أزمة مالية.

من ابرز الأزمات الدولية المعاصرة، أزمة أسواق جنوب شرق أسيا (1997) التي تعرضت لها أسواق مجموعة دول جنوب شرق أسيا، بعد أن اندلعت تلك الأزمة في سوق تايلند المالي لتنتقل بسرعة وبقوة إلى أسواق مالية مجاورة أخرى، والذي ميز تلك الأزمة عن غيرها هو النمو المتميز للأسواق المالية والاقتصادية لتلك الدول قبل حدوث الأزمة، أذ أطلق عليها النمور الأسيوية (Asian Tigers) الأمر الذي جعل إمكانية تعرضها لازمة مالية أمرا بعيد الاحتمال، وعندما ضربت تلك الأزمة أسواق المال في جنوب اسيا، أصبحت مسألة توقع حدوث أزمات مالية مفاجئة امرأ ليس بعيد الاحتمال بالرغم مما تمتلكه الأسواق المالية من مقومات أداء متميز.

تتناول الدراسة الحالية بعض النواحي الأساسية المتعلقة بالأزمات المالية الدولية، مع التركيز على أزمة أسواق جنوب أسيا بشكل خاص. وقد تمثلت مشكلة الدراسة في الجدل المعرفي حول الأطار المفاهيمي للأزمة المالية (Financial Crisis Concept)، والمفاهيم الأخرى ذات العلاقة، فضلا عن إمكانية أستجلاء التحليل لبعض نواحيها في الأسواق المالية لدول جنوب شرق آسيا (اندنوسيا، ماليزيا، الفلبين، تايلند، تايوان، وكوريا الجنوبية)  للفترة  (1998-1997)م.

بدأت الازمة الاسيوية عام 1997، ازمة في سوق العملات، وازمة سيولة مؤقتة، لكنها تحولت فيما بعد ذلك الى ازمة مالية واقتصادية ذات ابعاد سياسية خطيرة- الى حد كبير– بسبب السياسات غير المرنة لاسعار الصرف، وشركات مدينة اكثر من اللازم، وقطاع مصرفي ضعيف، وقروض كبيرة وقصيرة الاجل بالعملات الرئيسة للحكومات، ولوائح مصرفية واشرافية غير كافيتين بصفة عامة وضوابط مصرفية داخلية متراخية، وتقييم غير صارم للمخاطر الائتمانية والسوقية، وكان يعتقد بصفة عامة، ان الحكومات لن تسمح بفشل المصارف، وان الودائع مضمونة تماماً، كما ان قطاع التصدير الذي اعتمدت عليه هذه الدول لتحقيق معدلات عالية لنموها الاقتصادي قد تعرض لهزة كبيرة اضعفت قدرته التنافسية، وذلك عندما قامت الصين عام 1994 بتخفيض سعر صرف عملتها.

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 22 2022
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
Developing models to predicting the effect of crises on construction projects using MLR technique
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparing Some of Robust the Non-Parametric Methods for Semi-Parametric Regression Models Estimation
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In this research, some robust non-parametric methods were used to estimate the semi-parametric regression model, and then  these methods were compared using the MSE comparison criterion, different sample sizes, levels of variance, pollution rates, and three different models were used. These methods are S-LLS S-Estimation -local smoothing, (M-LLS)M- Estimation -local smoothing, (S-NW) S-Estimation-NadaryaWatson Smoothing, and (M-NW) M-Estimation-Nadarya-Watson Smoothing.

The results in the first model proved that the (S-LLS) method was the best in the case of large sample sizes, and small sample sizes showed that the

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Statistics And Its Interface
Search for risk haplotype segments with GWAS data by use of finite mixture models
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The region-based association analysis has been proposed to capture the collective behavior of sets of variants by testing the association of each set instead of individual variants with the disease. Such an analysis typically involves a list of unphased multiple-locus genotypes with potentially sparse frequencies in cases and controls. To tackle the problem of the sparse distribution, a two-stage approach was proposed in literature: In the first stage, haplotypes are computationally inferred from genotypes, followed by a haplotype coclassification. In the second stage, the association analysis is performed on the inferred haplotype groups. If a haplotype is unevenly distributed between the case and control samples, this haplotype is labeled

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Development of Regression Models for Predicting Pavement Condition Index from the International Roughness Index
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Flexible pavements are considered an essential element of transportation infrastructure. So, evaluations of flexible pavement performance are necessary for the proper management of transportation infrastructure. Pavement condition index (PCI) and international roughness index (IRI) are common indices applied to evaluate pavement surface conditions. However, the pavement condition surveys to calculate PCI are costly and time-consuming as compared to IRI. This article focuses on developing regression models that predict PCI from IRI. Eighty-three flexible pavement sections, with section length equal to 250 m, were selected in Al-Diwaniyah, Iraq, to develop PCI-IRI relationships. In terms of the quantity and severity of eac

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of human development indicators in the context of distributive justice for Iraq for the period 2003-2013
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Abstract                                                                             

The government spending in Iraq and witnessed the changes and developments, especially after 2003, which outweighed consumer spending at the expense of capital expenditure and increased support and diversity of trends towards improving pension conditions for member

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 26 2025
Journal Name
Misan Journal For Physical Education Sciences
An analytical study of the percentage of performance contribution of some defensive skills by playing positions (1,5,6) for the free player (libero) in volleyball
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The game of volleyball, like all other sports, has been made by new amendments, the most important of which is the system of what is not the system of the free player in 1998, which gave added importance to the skills of receiving the transmission and defending the stadium being one of the important skills where the law allowed the free player to move and position in the back positions of the stadium Limited support mainly defensive skills. This is to make the state of stability and balance between defensive and offensive skills, which helps in the development of the game and make it exciting and enjoyable for players and fans. Therefore, the researchers decided to shed light by identifying the percentage of the contribution of the free pla

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agriculture And Statistical Science
COMPARISON OF FORECASTING OF THE RISK OF CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) IN HIGH-QUALITY AND LOW-QUALITY HEALTHCARE SYSTEMS, USING ANN MODELS
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COVID-19 is a disease that has abnormal over 170 nations worldwide. The number of infected people (either sick or dead) has been growing at a worrying ratio in virtually all the affected countries. Forecasting procedures can be instructed so helping in scheming well plans and in captivating creative conclusions. These procedures measure the conditions of the previous thus allowing well forecasts around the state to arise in the future. These predictions strength helps to make contradiction of likely pressures and significances. Forecasting procedures production a very main character in elastic precise predictions. In this case study used two models in order to diagnose optimal approach by compared the outputs. This study was introduce

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 21 2024
Journal Name
International Development Planning Review
THE EFFECT OF USING A DISABLING FORCE TRAINING TOOL ON WALKING PERFORMANCE: AN ANALYTICAL STUDY OF TIME AND STEP LENGTH IN THE 20 KM WALKING RACE EVENT FOR APPLICANTS
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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Lecture Notes In Mechanical Engineering
Development and Validation of a Free Piston Engine Linear Generator Simulation Model Including Cycle-To-Cycle Variation and Ignition Timing Sub-Models
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Publication Date
Tue Aug 26 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Assessment of transforming growth factor beta one (TGF-?1) immunohistochemical (IHC) expression profile in the gingival tissue of patients with different forms of periodontal diseases
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Background: This study evaluate the immunohistochemical expression profile of transforming growth factor beta-1 in inflamed gingival tissue of patients with gingivitis and chronic periodontitis compared to healthy subjects and, determine the correlation between this cytokine and the clinical periodontal parameters, intensity of inflammation and chronic periodontitis severity. Materials and methods: Gingival tissue specimens were taken from 23 chronic periodontitis patients, 20 gingivitis patients and 20 periodontally healthy subjects. The periodontal status was evaluated by dichotomous measurements of the clinical periodontal parameters (PLI, GI, BOP, PPD, CAL). The gingival specimens were fixed immediately in 10% formalin and processed ro

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