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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
مجلة العلوم الاقتصادية والإدارية
Improving" Jackknife Instrumental Variable Estimation method" using A class of immun algorithm with practical application
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Improving" Jackknife Instrumental Variable Estimation method" using A class of immun algorithm with practical application

Publication Date
Mon Oct 31 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Intelligent Engineering And Systems
Robot Path Planning in Unknown Environments with Multi-Objectives Using an Improved COOT Optimization Algorithm
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Publication Date
Mon Jun 05 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of Compressive Strength of Reinforced Concrete Structural Elements by Using Combined Non-Destructive Tests
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This research is devoted to investigate relationship between both Ultrasonic Pulse Velocity and Rebound Number (Hammer Test) with cube compressive strength and also to study the effect of steel reinforcement on these relationships.
A study was carried out on 32 scale model reinforced concrete elements. Non destructive testing campaign (mainly ultrasonic and rebound hammer tests) made on the same elements. About 72 concrete cubes (15 X 15 X15) were taken from the concrete mixes to check the compressive strength.. Data analyzed.Include the possible correlations between non destructive testing (NDT) and compressive strength (DT) Statistical approach is used for this purpose. A new relationships obtained from correlations results is give

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 25 2015
Journal Name
مجلة اتحاد الجامعات العربية للدراسات والبحوث الهندسية
Smart Sensing for Variable Pressure of Oil Well Safety Valve Using Proportional Pressure Control valve
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Protection of the oil pipelineswhich extracted from the wells was found to shut the well and prevent the leakage of oil when broken using safety valve. This valve is automatically activated by loss of pressure between the well and pipelines, which take the pressure, signal from hydraulic pressure sensor through pressure control valve which has constant or variable value but it is regulated manually. The manual regulatory process requires the presence of monitoring workers continuously near the wells which are always found in remote areas. In this paper, a smart system has been proposed that work with proportional pressure control valve and also electronic pressure sensor through Arduino controller, which is programmed in a way that satisfie

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 02 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Rapid Detection of Aspergillus flavus isolates producing aflatoxin using UV light on different culture media
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This study included the isolation and identification of Aspergillus flavus isolates associated with imported American rice grains and local corn grains which collected from local markets, using UV light with 365 nm wave length and different media (PDA, YEA, COA, and CDA ). One hundred and seven fungal isolates were identified in rice and 147 isolates in corn.4 genera and 7 species were associated with grains, the genera were Aspergillus ,Fusarium ,Neurospora ,Penicillium . Aspergillus was dominant with occurrence of 0.47% and frequency of 11.75% in rice grains whereas in corn grains the genus Neurospora was dominant with occurrence of 1.09% and frequency 27.25% ,results revealed that 20 isolates out of 50 A. flavus isolates were able

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Effect of different bracket types on streptococcus mutans count in orthodontic patients using fluoridated toothpaste
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Background: Plaque retention during fixed orthodontic therapy is an important cause of developing enamel demineralization. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of different brackets types on the count of Streptococcus Mutans in orthodontic patients using conventional fluoridated toothpaste. Materials and Methods: Plaque samples were collected from maxillary 1st premolar teeth of twenty right handed patients (using split mouth technique) before bonding, after 48 hrs of bonding using tooth brush only, and after 2 weeks of using fluoridated toothpaste. Stainless steel bracket was bonded on right first premolar while the left one was bonded with sapphire bracket. The calculation of the Streptococcus Mutans count was done usin

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Ecological Engineering
Biosorption of Heavy Metals from Synthetic Wastewater by Using Macro Algae Collected from Iraqi Marshlands
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Publication Date
Fri May 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Numerical Investigation of Heat Transfer Enhancement of Double Pipe Heat Exchanger Using Metal Foam Fins
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The influence of adding metal foam fins on the heat transfer characteristics of an air to water double pipe heat exchanger is numerically investigated. The hot fluid is water which flows in the inner cylinder whereas the cold fluid is air which circulates in the annular gap in parallel flow with water. Ten fins of metal foam (Porosity = 0.93), are added in the gap between the two cylinder, and distributed periodically with the axial distance. Finite volume method is used to solve the governing equations in porous and non-porous regions. The numerical investigations cover three values for Reynolds number (1000 ,1500, 2000), and Darcy number (1 x10-1, 1 x10-2, 1x10-3). The comparison betwee

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2020
Journal Name
Alexandria Engineering Journal
Biodegradation of reactive dyes by some bacteria using response surface methodology as an optimization technique
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Water pollution as a result of contamination with dye-contaminating effluents is a severe issue for water reservoirs, which instigated the study of biodegradation of Reactive Red 195 and Reactive Blue dyes by E. coli and Bacillus sp. The effects of occupation time, solution pH, initial dyes concentrations, biomass loading, and temperature were investigated via batch-system experiments by using the Design of Experiment (DOE) for 2 levels and 5 factors response surface methodology (RSM). The operational conditions used for these factors were optimized using quadratic techniques by reducing the number of experiments. The results revealed that the two types of bacteria had a powerful effect on biodegradable dyes. The regression analysis reveale

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Optimization of Surface Roughness for Al-alloy in Electro-chemical Machining (ECM) using Taguchi Method
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Electro-chemical Machining is  significant  process to remove metal with using  anodic dissolution. Electro-chemical machining use to removed metal workpiece from (7025) aluminum alloy using Potassium chloride (KCl) solution .The tool used was made from copper. In this present the optimize processes input parameter use are( current, gap and electrolyte concentration) and surface roughness (Ra) as output .The experiments on electro-chemical machining with use current (30, 50, 70)A, gap (1.00, 1.25, 1.50) mm and electrolyte concentration (100, 200, 300) (g/L).  The method (ANOVA) was used to limited the large influence factors affected on surface roughness and found the current was the large influence f

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