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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 02 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study photometric properties of spiral galaxy NGC 4448 using CCD camera with multiband filters
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The goal of our study is to perform detailed multiband surface photometry of the spiral galaxy NGC 4448 and its brightest star-forming regions. The structure and composition of the stellar population in the surface brightness galaxy NGC 4448 was studied using BVR CCD photometry. The observations were obtained on the 1.88 m optical telescope of Kottamia Astronomical Observatory (KAO), Egypt. A two-dimensional decomposition of the galaxy bulge and disk components is carried out. A powerful star forming region is observed near the galactic center. Based on the positions of the various components of the galaxy in two color diagrams. From the observations, the surface brightness profiles, Ellipticity profiles, position angle profiles and colo

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 03 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Toxicity Reduction of Reactive Red Dye-238 Using Advanced Oxidation Process by Solar Energy
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Decolorization of red azo dye (Cibacron Red FN-R) from synthetic wastewater has been investigated as a function of solar advanced oxidation process. The photocatalytic activity using ZnO as a photocatalysis has been estimated. Different parameters affected the removal efficiency, including pH of the solution, initial dye concentration and H2O2 concentration were evaluated to find out the optimum value of these parameters. The results proved that the optimal pH value was 8 and the most efficient H2O2 concentration was 100mg/L. Toxicity reduction percent for effluent solution was also monitored to assess the degradation process. This treatment method was able to strongly reduce the color and toxicity of reactive red dye-238 to about (99 an

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 14 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Assessment of bone density after six months from dental implants placement using Computed Tomography
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Background: Determination of local bone mineral density (BMD) immediately after implant insertion play an important role in implant success rate, may offer comprehensive description of the bone, and give enough information to the surgeon prior to implant insertion and at follow up status. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the changes of local bone density in the dental implant recipient sites by using computerized tomography. Material and method: The sample consisted of (20) dental implants recipient sites, bone density assessment was done twice, immediately after implants insertion and after six months. Results: The mean HU of the bone around the implant insertion site, immediately after implant placement was 552.28 HU, and inc

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
River Water Salinity Impact on Drinking Water Treatment Plant Performance Using Artificial neural network
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The river water salinity is a major concern in many countries, and salinity can be expressed as total dissolved solids. So, the water salinity impact of the river is one of the major factors effects of water quality. Tigris river water salinity increase with streamline and time due to the decrease in the river flow and dam construction from neighboring countries. The major objective of this research to developed salinity model to study the change of salinity and its impact on the Al-Karkh, Sharq Dijla, Al-Karama, Al-Wathba, Al-Dora, and Al-Wihda water treatment plant along Tigris River in Baghdad city using artificial neural network model (ANN). The parameter used in a model built is (Turbidity, Ec, T.s, S.s, and TDS in)

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Optical, Structural, Morphological Properties of Chromium (III) Oxide Nanostructure Synthesized Using Spray Pyrolysis Technique
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Nanostructure of chromium oxide (Cr2O3-NPs) with rhombohedral structure were successfully prepared by spray pyrolysis technique using Aqueous solution of Chromium (III) chloride CrCl3 as solution. The films were deposited on glass substrates heated to 450°C using X-ray diffraction (XRD) shows the nature of polycrystalline samples. The calculated lattice constant value for the grown Cr2O3 nanostructures is a = b = 4.959 Å & c = 13.594 Å and the average crystallize size (46.3-55.6) nm calculated from diffraction peaks, Spectral analysis revealed FTIR peak characteristic vibrations of Cr-O Extended and Two sharp peaks present at 630 and 578 cm-1 attributed to Cr-O “stretching

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
New Approaches of Cloud Services Access using Tonido Cloud Server for Real-Time Applications
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A Tonido cloud server provides a private cloud storage solution and synchronizes customers and employees with the required cloud services over the enterprise. Generally, access to any cloud services by users is via the Internet connection, which can face some problems, and then users may encounter in accessing these services due to a weak Internet connection or heavy load sometimes especially with live video streaming applications overcloud. In this work, flexible and inexpensive proposed accessing methods are submitted and implemented concerning real-time applications that enable users to access cloud services locally and regionally. Practically, to simulate our network connection, we proposed to use the Raspberry-pi3 m

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Hazard Rate Estimation Using Varying Kernel Function for Censored Data Type I Article Sidebar
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n this research, several estimators concerning the estimation are introduced. These estimators are closely related to the hazard function by using one of the nonparametric methods namely the kernel function for censored data type with varying bandwidth and kernel boundary. Two types of bandwidth are used: local bandwidth and global bandwidth. Moreover, four types of boundary kernel are used namely: Rectangle, Epanechnikov, Biquadratic and Triquadratic and the proposed function was employed with all kernel functions. Two different simulation techniques are also used for two experiments to compare these estimators. In most of the cases, the results have proved that the local bandwidth is the best for all the types of the kernel boundary func

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of Monthly Fluoride Content in Tigris River using SARIMA Model in R Software
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The need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2,0,0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlation coefficien

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2007
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Drag Reduction of Crude Oil Flow in Pipelines Using Sodium Dodecyl Benzene Sulfonate Surfactant
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In the present work, a closed loop circulation system consist of three testing sections was designed and constructed. The testing sections made from (3m) of commercial carbon steel pipe of diameters(5.08, 2.54 and 1.91 cm) . Anionic surfactant  (SDBS )with  concentrations  of (50,  100,  150, 200 and 250 ppm)  was tested as a drag reducing  agent.  The additive(SDBS)studied using crude oil from south of Iraq. The flow rates of crude oil were used in 5.08 and 2.54 cm I.D. pipes are (1 - 12) m3/hr while (1-6) m3/hr were used in 1.91 cm J .D. pipe . Percentage drag reduction (%Dr) was found to increase by increasing solution velocity, pipe diameter and additives concentration (i.e. increasi

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 30 2019
Journal Name
Sn Applied Sciences
Removal of oil emulsion from aqueous solution by using Ricinus communis leaves as adsorbent
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