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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The impact of a typical student achievement teams use and integration of fragmented information in the collection of history students at the fifth grade literary
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The goal of this research is to find the effects of both the studying students groupwhich has various educational levels and the integration of the fragmented information through or during the study of history subjects for the female students of the fifth secondary literary section.
To achieve this study or case the researcher has chosen an experimental design or test by studying three groups: two are as mentioned above and the third is just ordinary team. In addition to that, there is a test after the experiment. The researcher chose on purpose female students of the literal section from two different secondary school Al Asil and Wahran both are secondary school for girls, and both are from directorate of education- Al Karkh 2nd dist

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Post a reflection on the capabilities of personnel programs A prospective study of a sample of the views of the staff at the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research
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            This research aims to know the role and impact of participation in the capabilities of human resources programs, and for the purpose of measuring it has been determined the dimensions of these two variables by relying on standards for this purpose, was chosen as the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research / device supervision and scientific calendar as one of the important departments in the ministry and includes a large number of individuals at different organizational levels for the purpose of answering a questionnaire prepared for the purpose of measurement and access to the results and the achievement of the objectives of the research and which ha

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The role of social worker and service and social school
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Concert place high school in the community Keep pace with societal change and what is going through Iraqi society from the wars and occupation and the sectarian and ethnic conflict and authoritarian policies and Dictator ship .
This is the circumstance of the most important historical stages that require .
Precision sons is Keep up with the progress and development and the advancement of the educational march .
The school is a social institution that organizes the members of society all walks of life and their habitats working on crafting members of the extraordinary alve of progress At the multiplicity of functions and tasks school pequires members qualified scientific and practical Becomes complementary members seek progress a

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
360 degree reverse feedback / comparative analytical study for a sample of managers and heads of departments in the Central Electricity DepartmentAnd the General Directorate of Water and Sewage
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يسعى البحث إلى الاهتمام بإحدى الوظائف المهمة في إدارة الموارد البشرية وهي تقويم الأداء التي تواجه مجموعة من الانتقادات والآراء السلبية، اذ ظهر في الأّونة الأخيرة أنموذج جديد يمكن إن يتجاوز تلك السلبيات وهو أنموذج التغذية العكسية المتعدد المصادر درجة .وقد حاول الباحثان توظيف هذا المفهوم في اثنتين من المنظمات العامة العراقية هما (دائرة كهرباء الوسط) التابعة لوزارة الكهرباء
و (دائرة الماء والمجاري) ال

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Absorptive Capacity of Operational Budget and Monetary Policy Fiscal Cost
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In light of the enquiry raised by the Economist Mary Finn in 1995 concluding that high utilization in absorptive capacity of the economy is of inflationary tendency for industrial countries due to the equality between high rates of utilization of absorptive capacity and resource – shortage conditions leading to price inflation, the same idea was used to prove that budget utilization of operational costs and elevating absorptive capacity at the expense of investment budget leads to inflationary tendency that becomes a burden on financing the step- in policy of the Central bank to control prices through its foreign currency reserves at a time when the economy turned  into an importer of non- tradable goods and being subject

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Reinsurance risks and their reflex on the financial performance of the National Insurance Company: Applied Research in Maritime Insurance Branch
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The research dealt with the risks of reinsurance and its impact on the financial performance of the National Insurance Company by focusing on reinsurance in the marine insurance branch. Negative impact on the financial performance of the NICs and the Marine Insurance Branch. The research sample resulted in a main hypothesis that reflects this relationship. Lee in the analysis of financial information reports National Insurance Company of the branch of marine insurance for the period of 2010 until 2017, and the use of (retention) for measuring the re-insurance operations index, and (insurance financial surplus rate) to measure financial performance. For the purpose of obtaining the results, a number of statistical methods were used accord

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Rightness in Evalating Basra and Kufa’s Views in The Work Of Al _ Anbary, Al - Insaf Fi Masael Al - Khilaf
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This paper deals with the Kufis and basris agreements in Abo Al _ Barakat Al _ anbary’s
work “ Al- Insaf Fi Masael Al - Khilaf.It attempts to settle the disputes and find out the right
views.
The book presents the issnes that the two schools of Kufa and Basra dispute upon and try to
evaluate them so as to support the correct ones .The present researcher has noticed that the
author of the above work was not always right or accurate in picturing a number of issues as
disputable whereas they implicitly shared the same views .Accordingly ,this papor sheds light
on such cases and drew acadernic researchers, attention to the invalidity of Al –anbary’s
misjudged views.

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Alternative Sanctions and their Impact on Societal Security: A Field Study in the Directorate of Juveniles Reformatory in Baghdad
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Crime is one of the most severe challenges facing States, and strives to find preventive measures, reduce its seriousness, and prevent them; due to developments, crimes have increased, and emerging new patterns of crimes, there is an urgent need to prevent crimes and reduce their effects. Modernizing its punitive system and diverting it to correctional rehabilitative justice to redress the prejudice caused by the crime and rehabilitate the convicted person by using alternative measures to short-term imprisonment. This research emphasizes alternative sanctions' value to minimizing short-term imprisonment penalties and their impact on societal security through several goals like, the negative consequences, justifications, and alternatives

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the Causal Relationship Long-and Short-term Between the Price of Crude Oil, the Global Price of Gold and the US. Dollar Exchange Rate
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This research aims to test the causal relationship long-and short-run between the price of gold the global crude oil price and the exchange rate of the dollar and how you can take advantage of the nature of this relationship, particularly in the Arab oil states that achieve huge surpluses, including Iraq and how to keep on the purchasing power of these surpluses or reduce the levels of risk.

The problem is that the Arab oil countries, adversely affected, as a result of that relationship, due to the fact that its role confined to the sale of crude oil only. They do not have control in the dollar, then they are not able to take advantage of its impact on the price of gold the fact that gold is effective pr

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 26 2021
Journal Name
Modern Sport
The Effect Of Plank Exercises On The Lipid Component And The Rate Of Metabolism (Bmr) Among Students Of The Higher Institute For Security And Administrative Development
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The introduction of the research on the science of training and the physiology of sports was addressed from important sciences, where the physical effort drew the attention of scientists since the past centuries when they studied how the body performs its functions when performing physical exertion and observe the changes that occur in it and write down and study especially the positive effects of the practice of daily sports The aim of the study was to investigate the effect of plank exercises on the lipid component and the metabolic rate (bmr) of the female students of the Higher Institute for Security and Management Development. As for the third chapter, the two researchers used the experimental method on a sample of the female s

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