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jeasiq-1218
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Management Model for Evaluation and Selection of Engineering Equipment Suppliers for Construction Projects in Iraq
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Engineering equipment is essential part in the construction project and usually manufactured with long lead times, large costs and special engineering requirements. Construction manager targets that equipment to be delivered in the site need date with the right quantity, appropriate cost and required quality, and this entails an efficient supplier can satisfy these targets. Selection of engineering equipment supplier is a crucial managerial process .it requires evaluation of multiple suppliers according to multiple criteria. This process is usually performed manually and based on just limited evaluation criteria, so better alternatives may be neglected. Three stages of survey comprised number of public a

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 02 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Empirical Study for Capturing and Allocating Significant Risk Factors in School Construction Projects in Iraq
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In Iraq, more than 1031 school projects have been halted due to disputes and claims resulting from financial, contractual, or other issues. This research aims to identify, prioritize, and allocate the most critical risk factors that threaten these projects’ success for the duration (2017-2022). Based on a multi-step methodology developed through systematic literature reviews, realistic case studies, and semi-structured interviews, 47 risk factors were identified. Based on 153 verified responses, the survey reveals that the top-ranked risk factors are corruption and bribery, delaying the payments of the financial dues to the contractors or sub-contractors, absence of risk management strategy, multiple change orders due

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Dissertation/thesis
A Model To Evaluate the Online Training for Global Virtual Teams in Global Software Projects
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Publication Date
Thu Feb 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Impact of Adequacy and Authoritative Evidences in the Audit Risks: An Exploratory Research for A Sample Views of Auditors in Iraq
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The Audit evedances represent the reconciliation tools between the Financial data shown on financial statements, and the level of satisfaction level of the Auditor about these statements. According that, the Auditor try to achieve the highest quantity of These evidances, and the most satisfactive of it…, but that will be so hard sometimes, when the internal controlling system is not good, and when the Auditor had some satisfied evidences, but not sharp… So, this research comes to inspect the relation between the quantity, and the level of satisfaction, and argument to prove that evidences gives. This research assumes that getting enough evidences leads to reduce faults, improves the auditing operation, and avoids risks. The research

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use multi-goal fuzzy programming to find the critical path
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The exploitation of all available resources and benefiting from them is one of the most important problems facing the decision makers at the present time. In order to exploit these resources, it is necessary to organize the conflicting objectives, which is the main work in the project management, which enables the development of a plan that decision makers can use to shorten the total completion time and reduce the total cost of the project. Through the use of modern scientific techniques, and therefore the researcher using the critical path method using the technology of programming goals to find more efficient ways to make appropriate decisions where the researcher worked to solve the problems in the construction of the Departm

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
The International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications
Developing Bulk Arrival Queuing Models with Constant Batch Policy Under Uncertainty Data Using (0-1) Variables
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This paper delves into some significant performance measures (PMs) of a bulk arrival queueing system with constant batch size b, according to arrival rates and service rates being fuzzy parameters. The bulk arrival queuing system deals with observation arrival into the queuing system as a constant group size before allowing individual customers entering to the service. This leads to obtaining a new tool with the aid of generating function methods. The corresponding traditional bulk queueing system model is more convenient under an uncertain environment. The α-cut approach is applied with the conventional Zadeh's extension principle (ZEP) to transform the triangular membership functions (Mem. Fs) fuzzy queues into a family of conventional b

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The reality of bee breeding in Iraq and ways to develop it
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This study was (the reality of beekeeping in Iraq and ways of developing them) as a research project in the branch of production is important branches of the productivity of the agricultural sector in Iraq, and the importance of this section, productive (beekeeping) for the agricultural sector in his contribution to increase the vegetable production and improve the quality and the various Classes of types, through its active role in the pollination of plants and indirectly (when the bees to move between plants to collect nectar and pollen grains), which contributes to reduce the losses in plant production and raise the rate of productivity per donum of various agricultural crops.

On the other hand play a

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison of Parameters Estimation Methods for the Negative Binomial Regression Model under Multicollinearity Problem by Using Simulation
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This study discussed a biased estimator of the Negative Binomial Regression model known as (Liu Estimator), This estimate was used to reduce variance and overcome the problem Multicollinearity between explanatory variables, Some estimates were used such as Ridge Regression and Maximum Likelihood Estimators, This research aims at the theoretical comparisons between the new estimator (Liu Estimator) and the estimators

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of Using Information and Communication Technology to Improving the Quality of Blended Learning Elements’, a Survey Study at the Technical College of Management /Baghdad
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 The research has been based on two main variables (information and communication technology) and the quality of blended education (physical and electronic), aiming to reveal the relationship between four dimensions (physical devices, software, databases, communication networks) and the elements of education represented by (the teacher, the student, the teaching process, curriculum).  The methodology and post-analysis-based research were conducted at the Technical College of Management / Baghdad through polling the opinions of a random sample that included (80) teachers out of (86) and the number of students (276) representing a random sample from all departments of the college (for the morning study) out of (3500) stud

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 30 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Pushing delusions into some of what has been stated to be heard in the isnad "practical examples"
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    Communication attribution is a condition of the validity of the hadeeth and that each narrator heard from his Sheik.There are some of the narrators who said to hear who told him and his contemporary, and this narrator is also innocent of the stigma of fraud, but this hearing has no truth.

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