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jeasiq-1218
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 15 2021
Journal Name
المجلة العربية للبحوث الادبية والانسانية
Service Leadership and Customer Satisfaction Under COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis : An Empirical Research for Leaders of Public Organizations in Iraq
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The current research aims to identify the degree to which a sample of managers in public organizations appreciated the level of application of the service leadership style from their point of view, and its relationship to the customer satisfaction index in light of the (Covid-19) pandemic, to achieve this, the researcher followed the experimental approach by applying a questionnaire that included two axes, The first: to measure the level of service leadership according to the scale (D. Van Dierendonck and I. Nuijten, 2011), which includes (8) dimensions (empowerment, stand back, accountability, courage, forgiveness, Authenticity, humility, stewardship). The second axis: to measure the level of customer satisfaction according to (Askim, 2004

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Using stress tests to manage credit concentration risks: An applied research in Sumer Commercial Bank
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The research aims to identify banking stress tests, which is one of the modern and important tools in managing banking risks by applying the equations of that tool to the sample. The banking sector considered one of the most vulnerable to sudden and rapid changes in an unstable economic environment, making it more vulnerable. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a special risk management section to reduce the banking risks of the banking business that negatively affect its performance.

The research concluded that there is a direct relationship between stress tests and risk management, as stress tests are an essential tool in risk management. They also considered a unified approach in managing bank risks that helps the bank to

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Travel Time Prediction Models and Reliability Indices for Palestine Urban Road in Baghdad City
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Abstract

     Travel Time estimation and reliability measurement is an important issues for improving operation efficiency and safety of traffic roads networks. The aim of this research is the estimation of total travel time and distribution analysis for three selected links in Palestine Arterial Street in Baghdad city. Buffer time index results in worse reliability conditions. Link (2) from Bab Al Mutham intersection to Al-Sakara intersection produced a buffer index of about 36%  and 26 % for Link (1) Al-Mawall intersection to Bab Al- Mutham intersection and finally for link (3) which presented a 24% buffer index. These illustrated that the reliability get worst for link

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Use special Erwa to determine the number of live bacteria in different models
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Used in the study especially calibrated Erwa to determine the number of neighborhood or the Alayoshi number of bacteria in the count modeling and casting method dishes in addition to using the drop method yielded significant results for a match between the methods used ..

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Risks of Audit under Environment of Information Technology
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Standards of audit have been defined issued them by professional organizations the audit risk is: Failure of the auditor inadvertently to amend his opinion on the financial statements in suitable method, although these statements are Interpolated Essentially. As result the deep impacts caused by electronic operating systems in the accounting data in the audit process which audit risk has gained attention of many professional sides, especially the audit process and quality is relating with level of discovery the auditor for the mistakes of origin (misrepresentations) all their types and give the necessary confidence for the auditor to express his technical opinion in fidelity and certified financial statements which prepared electronicall

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
PART 2 An Experiment on the Box plot
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Abstract

These experiments seek to investigate the effects of the fixed variations to the basic box plot on subjects' judgments of the box lengths. The study consists of two experiments, were constructed as an extension to the experiments carried out previously by Hussin, M.M. (1989, 2006).  Subjects were asked to judge what percentage the shorter represented of the longer length in pairs of box lengths and give an estimate of percentage, one being a standard plot and the other being of a different box length and also varying with respect to other elements such as, box width or whisker length. When he (1989) suggested in the future research points (1, 2), the changing length of the st

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Over application courier company (DHL) to keep the quality of service to achieve customer satisfaction the adoption of precedence delivery time - A prospective study))
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Over application courier company (DHL) to keep the quality of service to achieve customer satisfaction the adoption of precedence delivery time - A prospective study))

Become attention to quality is a global phenomenon, and I took organizations and governments around the world attaches special attention, but we can say that quality has become the first function for many organizations, and has become a management philosophy

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use Simulation To Differentiate Between Some Modern Methods To the Model GM(1,1) To Find Missing Values And Estimate Parameters With A Practical Application
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Abstract

       The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 13 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Reality of Using Electronic Applications in Teaching Language Skills to People with Mild Intellectual Disability from the Mothers’ Perspective
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Abstract

This study aims to identify the reality of using electronic applications in teaching language skills to people with mild intellectual disabilities from the mothers’ perspective. A descriptive approach was used. The electronic questionnaires were administered to the study sample, 122 responses were received from mothers of the students with mild intellectual disability in Hafer Al-Baten schools. The response average rate was 94%. The results showed that there are statistically significant differences that are related to the variant of monthly income as for the barriers to using electronic applications in such schools, whereas there were no differences regarding the variant of monthly income regarding t

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using the Elzaki decomposition method to solve nonlinear fractional differential equations with the Caputo-Fabrizio fractional operator
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The techniques of fractional calculus are applied successfully in many branches of science and engineering, one of the techniques is the Elzaki Adomian decomposition method (EADM), which researchers did not study with the fractional derivative of Caputo Fabrizio. This work aims to study the Elzaki Adomian decomposition method (EADM) to solve fractional differential equations with the Caputo-Fabrizio derivative. We presented the algorithm of this method with the CF operator and discussed its convergence by using the method of the Cauchy series then, the method has applied to solve Burger, heat-like, and, couped Burger equations with the Caputo -Fabrizio operator. To conclude the method was convergent and effective for solving this type of

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