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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Anti-Social behavior and its relationship to the need to love at Baghdad University students
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1. Anti-social behavior Baghdad University students.
2. Know the differences in anti's social behavior according to gender, specialization.
3. Know-the need for love at Bagdad University students.
4. Know the relationship between anti-social behavior and the need to love.
The research sample consisted of (100) students, the researcher numbers tools to measure anti behavior and the need to love.
The results showed that college students have an anti-social behavior is weak and they need to love and there is no correlation between them Function relationship. Researcher has shown a number of recommendations and proposals.

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Travel Time Prediction Models and Reliability Indices for Palestine Urban Road in Baghdad City
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Abstract

     Travel Time estimation and reliability measurement is an important issues for improving operation efficiency and safety of traffic roads networks. The aim of this research is the estimation of total travel time and distribution analysis for three selected links in Palestine Arterial Street in Baghdad city. Buffer time index results in worse reliability conditions. Link (2) from Bab Al Mutham intersection to Al-Sakara intersection produced a buffer index of about 36%  and 26 % for Link (1) Al-Mawall intersection to Bab Al- Mutham intersection and finally for link (3) which presented a 24% buffer index. These illustrated that the reliability get worst for link

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effect Of Using Quantitative Methods Of Demand Forecasting In Improving Of Supply Chain Performance:" Case Study In One Of An Industerial Organization"
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Objecte The study aims to test the effect of using the appropriate quantitative method of demand forecasting in improving the performance of supply chain of the aviation fuel product ( The study sample), One of the products of the Doura refinery (The study site), By testing a set of quantitative methods of demand forecasting using forecasting error measurements, and choosing the least faulty, most accurate and reliable method and adept it in the building  chain.

Is the study of problem through a starting with the fol

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Effect of Cement and Admixture Types on the Resistance of High Performance Concrete to Internal Sulphate Attack
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This work is concerned with the study of the effect of cement types, particularly OPC and SRPC, which are the main cement types manufactured in Iraq. In addition, study the effect of mineral admixtures, which are HRM and SF on the resistance of high performance concrete (HPC) to internal sulphate attack. The HRM is used at (10%) and SF is used at (8 and 10)% as a partial replacement by weight of cement for both types. The percentages of sulphate investigated are (1,2 and 3)% by adding natural gypsum as a partial replacement by weight of fine aggregate. The tests carried out in this work are: compressive strength, flexural strength, ultrasonic pulse velocity, and density at the age of 7, 28, 90 and 120 days.

The r

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Silica Fume Modified Cement-Based Mortar Exposed to High Temperatures: Residual Strengths and Microstructure
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Several previous investigations and studies utilized silica fume (SF) or (micro silica) particles as supplementary cementitious material added as a substitute to cement-based mortars and their effect on the overall properties, especially on physical properties, strength properties, and mechanical properties. This study investigated the impact of the inclusion of silica fume (SF) particles on the residual compressive strengths and microstructure properties of cement-based mortars exposed to severe conditions of elevated temperatures. The prepared specimens were tested and subjected to 25, 250, 450, 600, and 900 °C. Their residual compressive strengths and microstructure were evaluated and compared with control samples (C

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 02 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Personality Types According to Holland's Theory and its Relationship with the Management Changing for some Administrators in the Province of Kurdistan-Iraq
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The figure of personality modes determines its privileged style in the use of modern and advanced technological tools in the process of changing and developing in order to keep up with that. The proses of selection and choosing administrators in the appropriate places are the most important functions of senior management because it is easy to adopt factory buildings or establishments But this is a human world as that of machines world. So it is required to have people in the process of changing those who have a time, Knowledge, skill, ability and strong administrative personal skills, those people (leaders) should to put a clear vision for the selection and application of the change efforts and to create the necessary climate and

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Experimental Study on Using Cement Kiln Dust and Plastic Bottle Waste to Improve the Geotechnical Characteristics of Expansive Soils in Sulaimani City, Northern Iraq
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In this study, stabilization of expansive soils using waste materials namely; Cement Kiln Dust (CKD), and waste plastic bottles (WPB) was experimentally investigated. Using CKD and WPB are exponentially increasing day by day, due to their capability to solve both environmental and geotechnical problems successfully. Expansive soils were collected from locations with a wide range of plasticity index (PI) (15 - 27) and liquid limit (LL) (35% - 64%). Stabilizer percentages were varied from 0% to 20%, and curing durations for CKD cases were 7 and 28 days. Results showed the best percentages of CKD and WPB are 12% of each one respectively. LL, plastic limit (PL), and swelling percent (SP) loss were observed, which are 46%, 55%, and 96% respec

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Perceptual Speed and Its Relation to the Emotional Patterns of University Students: Perceptual Speed and Its Relation to the Emotional Patterns of University Students
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The current research aims to identify the perceptual speed of the university students as well as to identify the differences in the level of perceptual speed for the university students according to the variables of (male, female) specialization (scientific, human) university (Baghdad, Mustansiriya). Additionally, the research aims to identify the prevalence of emotional pattern and to identify the relationship between perceptual speed and the emotional patterns among university students. The researcher designed a questionnaire to measure the Emotional Patterns based on Jerome Freedman perspective. As for perceptual speed, the researcher adopted French, Extrom and Price scale (1963), which was tran

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 12 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The possibility of adopting a market approach to measure the fair value of biological assets in Iraq: (Applied study in Middle East Fish Production and Marketing Company)
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The research aims to show the possibility of adopting the market approach to measure the fair value of biological assets in Iraq, by applying to a sample of the company listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange, where the Middle East Fish Production and Marketing Company was selected from among 7 companies representing the agricultural sector in Iraq, and according to the availability of data and for five years, the financial statements were presented of the measurement and disclosure of  biological assets at fair value according to the market approach, One of the most important conclusions reached by the researcher is the The possibility of measuring and disclosing biological assets at fair value according to the market approach in the Ira

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Publication Date
Mon May 14 2018
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
The Comparison Between Different Approaches to Overcome the Multicollinearity Problem in Linear Regression Models
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    In the presence of multi-collinearity problem, the parameter estimation method based on the ordinary least squares procedure is unsatisfactory. In 1970, Hoerl and Kennard insert analternative method labeled as estimator of ridge regression.

In such estimator, ridge parameter plays an important role in estimation. Various methods were proposed by many statisticians to select the biasing constant (ridge parameter). Another popular method that is used to deal with the multi-collinearity problem is the principal component method. In this paper,we employ the simulation technique to compare the performance of principal component estimator with some types of ordinary ridge regression estimators based on the value of t

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