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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 20 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The benefit of Ramfjord teeth to represent the full-mouth clinical attachment level in epidemiological study
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Background: Since the periodontal disease Index of Ramfjord (Ramfjord index) can potentially shorten the examination time by almost half, many studies evaluated Ramfjord teeth in predicting full-mouth periodontal status of an adult population. The aim of this study was to evaluate the benefit of Ramfjord teeth in predicting the full-mouth clinical attachment level of an adult population in patients attending the college of dentistry- Baghdad University. Materials and methods: The study participants were 100 patients with age range from 30-60 years old which represent group zero. The patients were divided into three main groups according to the age of the patients. Group I and group II each of them composed of 30 patients while group III co

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 25 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Recent Activities In Architectural Sciences
The Electrical Shanshool to revive Al-Shanasheel in the traditional urban scene in hot dry areas
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One of the functions of Al-Shanasheel was to cool the air, but they could not compete with the Evaporative coolers, As Al-Shanasheel were a sign of luxury and wealth in Arab societies and were only built in homes of wealthy families, they are more expensive than the evaporative coolers, depending on the level of the decoration and the sculpting used to create them aesthetically, where People replaced them with evaporative coolers for their low cost, and higher cooling efficiency. One of the reasons for the disappearance of Al-Shanasheel is the absence of the functional need for them, in exchange for the high cost of construction. The diminished role of Al-Shanasheel in the contemporary urban scene, although they are one of the most

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 16 2023
Journal Name
2023 14th International Renewable Energy Congress (irec)
Utilizing the Controlled Hydropower System to Harness the Collected Water in Drainage System for Power Generation
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The variety of clean energy sources has risen, involving many resources, although their fundamental principles remain consistent in terms of energy generation and pollution reduction. The using of hydropower system for energy production also has a dynamic impact in which it utilizes to harness the water for the purpose of energy production. As it is important to overcome the problem of accidents in the highway and rural areas in the case of server rainfall and flood by implementation a smart system that used for energy production. This paper aims to develop a controlled hydropower system installed in the drainage sinks allocated in highway roads used for producing. The proposed system consists of storage unit represented by pipes used for t

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimation of Reliability through the Wiener Degradation Process Based on the Genetic Algorithm to Estimating Parameters
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      In this paper, the researcher suggested using the Genetic algorithm method to estimate the parameters of the Wiener degradation process,  where it is based on the Wiener process in order to estimate the reliability of high-efficiency products, due to the difficulty of estimating the reliability of them using traditional techniques that depend only on the failure times of products. Monte Carlo simulation has been applied for the purpose of proving the efficiency of the proposed method in estimating parameters; it was compared with the method of the maximum likelihood estimation. The results were that the Genetic algorithm method is the best based on the AMSE comparison criterion, then the reliab

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Approximation of Weighted Hölder Functions by Fourier-Jacobi Polynomials to the Singular Sturm-Liouville Operator
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      In this work, a weighted H lder function that approximates a Jacobi polynomial which solves the second order singular Sturm-Liouville equation is discussed. This is generally equivalent to the Jacobean translations and the moduli of smoothness. This paper aims to focus on improving methods of approximation and finding the upper and lower estimates for the degree of approximation in weighted H lder spaces by modifying the modulus of continuity and smoothness. Moreover, some properties for the moduli of smoothness with direct and inverse results are considered.

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 04 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Role of Satellite Channels in Imparting Behavior to Children from the Point of View of their Parents in Tulkarm City
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This study aims to identify the role of satellite channels in imparting behavior to children from the point of view of their parents in Tulkarm city. The researcher used a descriptive technique. A sample of (18000) males and females married couples was used above 20 years old in the city of Tulkarm. The study sample size is (201) married couples. It took place in September 2020. The questionnaire was the main tool for collecting data. The study found that the total degree of satellite channels contribution in imparting negative behaviors to children was high, as it reached (72.20%). The total degree of the role of satellite channels in imparting positive behaviors to children was medium, reaching (69.20%). Moreover, the results also indi

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The political image of Kurds and ideological representation in the Arab novel in Iraq
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The novels that we have addressed in the research, Including those with the ideological and political ideology, It's carry a negative image for the Kurds without any attempt to understand, empathy and the separation between politics and the people, The novels were deformation of the image, Like tongue of the former authority which speaks their ideas, Such as (Freedom heads bagged, Happy sorrows Tuesdays for Jassim Alrassif, and Under the dogs skies for Salah Salah). The rest of novels (Life is a moment for Salam Ibrahim, The country night for Jassim Halawi, The rib for Hameed Aleqabi). These are novels contained a scene carries a negative image among many other social images, some positive, and can be described as neutral novels. We can

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Level of Counseling Services Offered to Gifted Students in Al-Baha Region from their Point Of View
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The current research aims to investigate the counseling services provided to gifted students in the Al-Baha region from their point of view, and to identify the differences in these views according to the students ’gender, educational stages, and the cities in which they study. The descriptive survey approach was followed in its relevance to the research objectives. Likewise, a random sample of gifted elementary, intermediate, and secondary school students was selected by the method of stratified sampling, as the sample reached (175) male and female students. The instrument of the research consisted of the questionnaire of counseling services presented to gifted students from their point of view prepared by researchers. The results sho

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 07 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Treatment of Skin Scar Using CO2 Laser with or Without Corticosteroid
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CO2 Laser (10600nm) is the recent method in the management of challenging skin scar resulting from trauma, burn and surgical wound. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy & safety of fractional CO2 laser (10600nm) in treatment of skin scar. Materials and Methods:Twenty patients with different types of scars treated with fractional CO2 (10600nm) laser, (10 patients) were given additional intralesional Triamcinolone. Results: All of the twenty patients included in this study showed some sort of improvements in scar texture, height and pliability and all of the ten patients who received intralesional Triamcinolone after laser show complete satisfaction. Conclusion:Fractional CO2 (10600nm) laser can be used as alternative, ef

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The absurdity of Orientalist thought and its deviation in interpretation Quranic text View and critique
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The absurdity of Orientalist thought and its deviation in interpretation
Quranic text
View and critique

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