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jeasiq-1218
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Methods of Forecasting Credit Losses in A Sample of Iraqi Banks - A Comparative Analysis
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  The general trend in Iraqi banks is focused towards the application of international financial reporting standards, especially the international financial reporting standard IFRS 9 “Financial Instruments”, in addition to the directives issued on the Central Bank of Iraq’s instructions for the year 2018 regarding the development of expected credit losses models, and not to adhere to a specific method for calculating these losses and authorizing the banks’ departments to adopt the method of calculating losses that suits the nature of the bank’s activity and to be consistent in its use from time to time. The research problem revolves around the different methodologies for calculatin

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
International business particularly that centered on foreign direct investment
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While practicing of International business particularly that centered on foreign direct investment, let on one side, to achieving objectives of transnational corporations specially that represented in continuous pursue to improving its cash flows and maximization of stockholders wealth which is considered the most important objective to the transnational corporations, but in the same time its lead, on other side, to increasing the foreign exchange risk exposuring these corporations. So, the transnational corporations (TNCs) struggling to make strategies which are dealing in smart way, with this risk and its management in way that enable to avoiding risk comple

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparative Study for Estimate Fractional Parameter of ARFIMA Model
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      Long memory analysis is one of the most active areas in econometrics and time series where various methods have been introduced to identify and estimate the long memory parameter in partially integrated time series. One of the most common models used to represent time series that have a long memory is the ARFIMA (Auto Regressive Fractional Integration Moving Average Model) which diffs are a fractional number called the fractional parameter. To analyze and determine the ARFIMA model, the fractal parameter must be estimated. There are many methods for fractional parameter estimation. In this research, the estimation methods were divided into indirect methods, where the Hurst parameter is estimated fir

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Feeding Problems in Children with Congenital Heart Diseases in Nasiriya Heart Center
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Objective: To identify feeding problems of children with congenital heart disease.
Methodology: Non probability (purposive) sample of (65) were selected of 225 children who visit Al Nasiriya
heart center during the period of conducting the pilot study, previously diagnosed with congenital heart
disease.
Results: The study results indicated that children with congenital heart disease have feeding difficulties, low
birth weight , repeated diarrhea , more than half of the sample taking medication for heart disease which cause
repeated vomiting, difficulty taking liquids and refusal of feeding or eating.(64.6%) of study sample suffered
from wasting. (78.5%) suffered from stunting. Almost half of the study sample suffered

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 29 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الخطوط الخطوط الدررالكامنه لابن حجر العسقلاني(ت852هـ) (دراسة منهجية) في كتاب
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Ibn Hajar is one of historian who had a role in historical writing represented by his writings in those active participation in the Arab-Islamic civilization, particularly his approach to intellectual, and pictures of us in his book that's part of the intellectual heritage, but a line that was a key part of the book, any manuscript

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 28 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
A Cognitive Linguistic Study of Battered Woman in Selected Iraqi Caricatures
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The present paper is a qualitative descriptive study. It aims to examine the macro-cultural schemata addressing the concept of violence against women in Iraq from a cognitive linguistic point of view. To meet this objective, a number of Iraqi social caricatures have been selected from two popular and active Iraqi caricaturists, Odeh Al-Fahdawi and Nasser Ibrahim. The selection and the analysis of data have been achieved following the validity and reliability procedures and the ethical considerations. To meet this objective, Sharifian’s Model (2011) of Cultural Schemata has been adopted in data analysis. The study has concluded that the macro-cultural schemata regarding the concept of violence in the selected panels reveals that violenc

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 20 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
Aesthetical Utilization of Sound in film of Alfred Hitchcock: حكمت مطشر مجيد البيضاني
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This research deals with the nature of the aesthetic employment of wool in the Alfred Hitchcock films, as this director is characterized by rich his experience that dealt with the photo film days of silent film and managed efficiently in the construction of his films, as well as when the audio input The Hitchhiker employ sound aesthetic ways still emulated so far. So I rely researcher this subject and the division of research into four chapters, such as the first quarter included the methodological framework which dealt with the problem of research and the importance of research, and the goals of the research, as well as the limits of research and finally determine the terms.The second chapter includes theoretical framework and previous

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
BARBARA : structure et signification Étude analytique du langage prévertien à travers son poème Barbara
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Cette recherche étudie les structures composant Barbara, un poème de Jacques Prévert pour mettre en valeur la particularité de ce langage. Nous avons d'abord, dissocié ces structures, en : structure thématique, actancielle, syntaxico-énonciative, sémantique, formelle et finalement spacio-temporelle en vue de les analyser minutieusement. Le poète a adopté pour les thèmes : souvenir, nostalgie et guerre, un langage simple et une syntaxe incomplexe. L'usage du lexique et des figures de style célèbrent ces thèmes. La forme, la versification et la sonorité approfondissent ces images et renforcent ce langage. Ce poème dépend des phrases simples et variées : affirmative, interrogative, exclamative qui s'orientent vers des acte

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Publication Date
Sun May 08 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
spatial analysis of health services in wasit governorate
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The spatial variation of regional development means that some regions to be a center of activities and services and job opportunities and economic development, and are usually in major urban centers, while lacking in other regions to such activities and services. Perhaps the studies of spatial variation SPATIAL INEQUALITY, regional development, REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT has had the greatest impact on the operations of regional planning in particular the study of the regional dimension of any city requires that you review the basis and theoretical framework, which refers to the inevitability of the existence of disparities across regions, due to the properties of the regions population and economic political and environmental The study

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 22 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الجوانب الإنسانية في حياة الرسول الكريم محمد )صلى الله عليه وسلم(
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نجدّ القرآن الكريم والحديث النبوي الشري يقدمان أر ى ميامين لمقيم الداعية
إلى إ امة مجتمع متماسك البنيان

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