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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
Comparing traditional estimators and the estimators of (PSO) algorithm for some growth models of gross domestic product in Iraq
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Publication Date
Wed May 02 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
the planning and design characteristics of Iraqs mud building and settlement
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The Mesopotamian soil is muddy and fertile, and so from ancient eras Iraqis used mud in their building, settlements and architecture in different methodologies according to the nature and the function of the building that was either in its pure form or by mixing it with other materials such as straw . also as raw bricks in different ways either for the whale building or parts of it, or for the finishing parts such as roofing for instance. In this research these different forms and methodologies will permeate through out a chosen examples of historical building, rural buildings and settlements and ancient buildings as well as some current uses of mud in the structures and building in standing cities, this in order to conclude some

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 27 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Obstacles to employing social media applications in measuring public opinion
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Media and communication's research are varied in accordance to research approaches' variety which seeks to reach convergent social, psycholo

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 22 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Mechanism of Using of Income Tax in Achievable of Economic Targets in Iraq
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The present study is concerned with the role of income tax in implementing economic goals in Iraq and treating the problems and pitfalls in the Iraq economy.

The study also aims at investigating the role of income tax in attracting promising favorite effects into economy.

The study was performed on data covering the period (2003 - 2012) with respect to the variables of (income tax, oil profits) as independent variables and (private consuming expenditure, private investmental expenditure, and standard figure of prices) as dependent variables. To analyze these data, a number of statistical descriptive and analytical techniques were used such as (percentage, standard variance, mediums, F test, T test and SPSS). It has been c

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 14 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Psychological alienation in relation to the motivation of achievement among incoming teachers in the schools of Dhofar Governorate
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The present study aimed at identifying the level of psychological alienation and motivation of achievement among the incoming teachers in the schools of Dhofar Governorate in the Sultanate of Oman a well as to explore the correlation relationship between psychological alienation and motivation of achievement. The sample of the study consisted of (238) expatriated teachers from Al- Dhofar Governorate in Oman who were selected randomly. The psychological alienation scale and the motivation of achievement scale for teachers were used by researchers and were conducted electronically by google forms. The data were processed statistically using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). The results showed that the level of psy

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Impact of Hindiya Dam on the Limnological Features of Euphrates River to the North of Babil Governorate, Iraq
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          Five sites were chosen to the north of Babil Governorate in   order to identify the limnological features and the impact of the Hindiya Dam during 2019. Site2 was located near the dam to reflect the ecological features of this site, whereas other sites, S1 was located at the upstream of the dam as a control site. Moreover, the two other sites S3 and S4 were located down the dam. The results of  the  study  showed  a  close  correlation  between air and water temperature at all sites. Also there were significant differences in average of thirteen out of eighteen water parameters.Water temperature, total alkalinity, bicarbonate, DO, POS, TH and Mg+2  ions  decreased from 22.76˚C, 203.33 mg/L,

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effectiveness of Indicators of Financial Discipline in Strengthening the Exchange Rate, with a Special Reference to Iraq
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Controlling public expenditures is one of the main objectives of the public budget. The public budget often suffers from a deficit, whether in developed or developing countries, because expenditures are usually greater than the revenues generated. This requires the existence of financial rules that are adhered to by the government, which in turn leads to discipline. Fiscal policy leads to a reduction in the obligations incumbent on the government.  Adhering to the financial rules would correct the course of fiscal policy in Iraq, with the need to direct oil revenues in the years of financial abundance when global oil prices rise to sovereign funds similar to other rentier countries, which contributes to maintaining the stabi

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Geotechnical Engineering And Sustainable Construction
Numerical Modeling of Under Reamed Piles Behavior Under Dynamic Loading in Sandy Soil
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Under-reamed piles defined by having one or more bulbs have the potential for sizeable major sides over conventional straight-sided piles, most of the studies on under-reamed piles have been conducted on the experimental side, while theoretical studies, such as the finite element method, have been mainly confined to conventional straight-sided piles. On the other hand, although several laboratory and experimental studies have been conducted to study the behavior of under-reamed piles, few numer­ical studies have been carried out to simulate the piles' performance. In addition, there is no research to compare and evaluate the behavior of these piles under dynamic loading. Therefore, this study aimed to numerically investigate bearing capaci

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Legal Studies And Researches
سياسة التجريم في ظل تراجع المعايير الأخلاقية
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يتعلق موضوع بحثنا في الصلة بين القانون والاخلاق، إذ تكمن جوهر فكرة القانون عموما والجنائي بشكل أخص فهذا الاخير انما يتعامل اساسا مع صور المساس الاكثر خطورة بالمعايير الاخلاقية والقيم التي تستند اليها. ويتعلق الامر بعد ذلك بالحقائق الاجتماعية التي تؤكد وجود تباين ملحوظ في مستويات الالتزام الفردي والجمعي بتلك المعايير نتيجة للتغير والتغيير الاجتماعي السلبي او الايجابي فإذا جمعنا ذلك مع ثبات القانون النسبي ك

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The Renaissance Dam Project and its impact on Egyptian – Ethiopian relation
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Receipt date:9/1/2020 accepted date:11/24/2020 Publication date:12/31/2021

Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

the Nile River and the Renaissance Dam is one of the most prominent factors that had an important role in the nature of relations between Egypt - Ethiopia, as  they contributed to building a relationship that has common characteristics through the nature of the i

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