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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Response of The Ionospheric E- Region Critical Frequency and Virtual Height to the Solar Cycle 22 over Baghdad
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      The aim of this study is to investigate the response of the Ionospheric E- region critical frequency foE and virtual height h’E parameters to the solar cycle 22 over Baghdad city (latitude 33.3˚N, longitude 44.4˚E). Both parameters display a high relationship with the sunspot relative number within the ascending and descending phases of the solar cycle. The E - region response to the solar activity is obvious around noon, sunrise and sunset times. Moreover, the gap between local mid-afternoon, dawn and sunset values expands as solar activity rises. In the declining phase, there is an aspect that results in a peak of disturbance. This portion may have

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Use of Parametric and Nonparametric Methods to Study the Effects of Smoking on High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol
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Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is one of the most widely used methods in statistics to analyze the behavior of one variable compared to another. The data were collected from a sample size of 65 adult males who were nonsmokers, light smokers, or heavy smokers. The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of cigarette smoking on high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level and determine whether smoking causes a reduction  in this level, by using the completely randomized design (CRD) and Kruskal- Wallis method. The results showed that the assumptions of the one- way ANOVA are not satisfied, while, after transforming original data by using log transformation, they are satisfied. From the results, a significantly

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 12 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study the effective of annealing on the structural and sensitivity properties for SnO2 thin films to CO2 Gas
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In this research thin films from SnO2 semiconductor have been prepared by using chemical pyrolysis spray method from solution SnCl2.2H2O at 0.125M concentration on glass at substrate temperature (723K ).Annealing was preformed for prepared thin film at (823K) temperature. The structural and sensing properties of SnO2 thin films for CO2 gas was studied before and after annealing ,as well as we studied the effect temperature annealing on grain size for prepared thin films .

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 11 2024
Journal Name
International Journal Of Dynamics And Control
The modified predator–prey model response to the effects of global warming, wind flow, fear, and hunting cooperation
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Global warming has a serious impact on the survival of organisms. Very few studies have considered the effect of global warming as a mathematical model. The effect of global warming on the carrying capacity of prey and predators has not been studied before. In this article, an ecological model describing the relationship between prey and predator and the effect of global warming on the carrying capacity of prey was studied. Moreover, the wind speed was considered an influencing factor in the predation process after developing the function that describes it. From a biological perspective, the nonnegativity and uniform bounded of all solutions for the model are proven. The existence of equilibria for the model and its local stability is inves

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The use of multi choice Goal Programming to reduce storage and shortage costs of blood units in health care centers
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We use of multi-choice Goal Programming (MCGP), which is a developed model of Goal Programming where it is used in circumstances of the multiplicity and difference of goals when choosing between decision alternatives in cases of allocating resources, as it is a model that seeks to find the closest and best solutions to the specific values ​​of the goals within the aspiration levels, as the first goal in the multi-choice goal programming model that is used to reduce the total cost of storage and shortage, while the other goal was to reduce the difference between the real demand that the hospitals need from the blood transfusion center and the units that already achieved. The case Iraqi Center

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 07 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Steganographic scheme to avoid statistical Steganalysis
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significant bits either in the spatial domain or frequency domain sequentially or pseudo
randomly through the cover media (Based on this fact) statistical Steganalysis use different
techniques to detect the hidden message, A proposed method is suggested of a stenographic
scheme a hidden message is embedded through the second least significant bits in the
frequency domain of the cover media to avoid detection of the hidden message through the
known statistical Steganalysis techniques.

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
From Passive Learning to Critical Thinking
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Many Iraqi students are reluctant to actively participate in the English
language classroom. This reluctance is attributed to a number of factors, above which
is students' lack of thinking skills necessary to express their points of view. This
eventually results in passive learning, a real problem in English language learning in
Iraq.
A need for educational reforms and innovations seems essential. These involve
developing relevant teaching materials, adopting learner-centered approach,
promoting learner autonomy, and enhancing critical thinking.
This study is hoped to assist teachers of English to initiate change and foster
the expansion of thinking, and adopt various new strategies to increase classroom
par

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 09 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
To Develop of Arabian high Education
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The research focuses,in the first place, on six fields.The most important one is
curriculum field which includes the revision of the current academic curriculums and
substitute them with recent ones, beside the rehabilitation of academic labs and factories by
providing them with modern scientific technologies employed in the world. Regarding the
economical field, it seeks to provide high-level training staffs to serve different social and
economical sectors through modern effective technological and scientific
curriculums.Whereas the social field assures the concern of different social classes who
deprived from the grace of higher education such as retirees and elderly people and to set-up
some educational and ent

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Empowering Women to Occupy Leadership Positions
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In this research , we tried to identify the meaning empowerment in the development literatures , and inquire the most enabling prominent actions to promote women , as we considered the most important international conferences that take up the subject of women's empowerment .
In the context of research on the subject of empowering women to occupy leadership positions , we tried to diagnose the target of the empowerment , and we clarify the correlation between human development and empowerment of women , also the research touched on the decision (1325) issued by the United Nations , which includes provisions regarding the importance of women participation at all levels in the process of decision-making .
We realized that there are so

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 30 2014
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Door of operation    (Trying to steer)
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The method of work is not a method made by grammarians. We have found more than guidance from the ancients and contemporaries; That to the corruption of meaning; or to apparent cost Not accepted by good linguistic taste.

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