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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 15 2024
Journal Name
Arab World English Journal For Translation And Literary Studies
The Relationship between Modern Theatre and Society According to Henrik Ibsen’s Plays: Rosmersholm, The Wild Duck, and A Doll’s House
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Henrik Ibsen is considered one of the greatest writers on society and its problems in the modern era, as his works deal with society in all its forms in a realistic way, in which he presents the motives and consequences of social problems and their impact on society to study these problems through them to and propose solutions through theatre. Most of his writings were very serious about addressing these social issues. The method of collecting information in the study came through reviewing a group of sources related to realistic theater and social theory, then reading the plays covered in a critical and analytical reading. Based on that, the method of writing this study came and used a group of sources that directly relate to the s

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The The Use of Copper and Aluminum Electrodes for Energy Production in a Microbial Fuel Cell
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Microbial fuel cell is a device that uses the microorganism metabolism for the production of electricity under specific operating conditions. Double chamber microbial fuel cell was tested for the use of two cheap electrode materials copper and aluminum for the production of electricity under different operating conditions. The investigated conditions were concentration of microorganism (yeast) (0.5- 2 g/l), solutions temperature (33-45 oC) and concentration of glucose as a substrate (1.5- 6 g/l). The results demonstrated that copper electrode exhibit good performance while the performance of aluminum is poor. The electricity is generated with and without the addition of substrate. Addition of glucose substrate

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of strategic leadership skills on effective environmental management according to the (VUCA Prime) model
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Purpose: clarify the integrative relationship of strategic leadership skills and effective management and the role of those skills combined or individually in achieving effective management.

Research design: The researchers used the quantitative method by surveying a class sample from the heads of the executive departments in a group of Iraqi private banks, consisting of (106) individuals according to the (VUCA Prime) methodology for effective management and the ten skills model for Johansen. The questionnaire was analyzed using a model of the structural equation.

Findings: The most prominent results of the research were the presence of a weak ro

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Assessing the Iraqi general budget in light of corruption and fluctuations in oil prices, and their repercussions on unemployment rates after 2003
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The researcher highlighted the general budget in Iraq for the period (2003-2018) facing the challenges of administrative and financial corruption, in addition to the fluctuations in oil prices, the repercussions and many problems suffered and will suffer the Iraqi government in the process of preparing the general budget of the state and weak contribution of the agricultural and industrial sectors and other economic sectors and neglect altogether, oil has become the main supplier in funding Iraq's budget after 2003, and the impact on the unemployment rates in Iraq, which recorded fluctuating rates and then increased during the period (2012-2018) to achieve this, an inductive method was adopted, using theoretical and descriptive a

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 20 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Positive School Psychology
The Role Of Product Lifecycle Cost Technology And Cleaner Production Strategy In Reducing Costs
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Reducing costs and protecting the environment surrounding economic unity has become the concern of many economic units and shifting their ideas towards preserving resources and protecting the environment by adopting strategies and techniques that take into account when applied reducing production costs and protecting the environment, including these strategies and techniques, the technical costs of the product life cycle and the strategy of cleaner production, as the application of the two concepts in local economic units helps to try to keep up with the countries that work to keep up with the success of their economic units by following the concepts that have been successful in  Developed countries by maintaining the sustainabilit

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 03 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Influence of chemical and physical conditions on the production of bacteriocin by Aeromonas hydrophila
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Aeromonas hydrophila have been isolated as a cause of a cute gastroenteritis in 23 (5.6%) of 410 patients. Other bacterial enteropathogens have been isolated from 387 patients with diarrhea, were 19 different strains. A. hydrophila occurred more commonly in children with acute diarrhea, the results showed that 18(78.26%) isolates of A. hydrophila found in children under 10 years old ,distributed to 10(43.47%) in male and 8(34.78%) in female ,and in adults with diarrhea 5 (21.73%). In the other hand, we noticed frequency of isolation was higher in male 14(60.86%) when compared with 9(39.14%) in female. Six strains of A. hydrophila have been observed to have bacteriocin activity against 12 of 23 different A. hydrophila ,as well as Staphy

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome: Clinical Research & Reviews
Nephrotic range proteinuria; does it predict lung involvement in patients with type 2 diabetes
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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome: Clinical Research & Reviews
Nephrotic range proteinuria; does it predict lung involvement in patients with type 2 diabetes
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Publication Date
Sun Sep 30 2001
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
New Development in the Process for the Production of Polybutadiene Rubber
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Publication Date
Tue Aug 03 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The impact of the procedures of the Banking Compliance Controller on the decision to grant credit and default: Applied research in a sample of Iraqi banks
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Abstracts:

The Central Bank is the backbone of the banking system as a whole, and in order to maintain the banking system, one of the most important functions that the Central Bank performs is the function of supervising and controlling banks, with several tools and methods, and one of the most important of these tools is its creation of the function of a compliance observer, which obligated commercial banks to appoint a person in A bank that performs this function according to certain conditions and granting it some powers that would build a sound and compliant banking system. The function of the compliance observer is to follow up on the bank’s compliance with the instructions and decisions issued by

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