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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Measuring Changes in Temperature Rates due to Urban Expansion in Selected Municipalities of Baghdad using GIS Technology
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The expansion of building blocks at the expense of agricultural land is one of the main problems causing climate change within the urban area of a city. The research came to determine these indicators, as a study was conducted on the expansion of the building blocks in three municipalities in the city of Baghdad for a period of four decades extended in the form of time cycles for the period (1981-2021) and using ArcMap GIS 10.7 technology. Then, the impact of this expansion on temperature rates was evaluated, as they are the most important climatic elements due to their significant effect on the rest of the elements. The results showed a clear, direct relationship between the increase in urban expansion rates and the corresponding r

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Improvement of Hot Mix Asphalt Resistance to Permanent Deformation at High Temperature Using Nanomaterial Modifiers: A Review
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The integration of nanomaterials in asphalt modification has emerged as a promising approach to enhance the performance of asphalt pavements, particularly under high-temperature conditions. Nanomaterials, due to their unique properties such as high surface area, exceptional mechanical strength, and thermal stability, offer significant improvements in the rheological properties, durability, and resistance to deformation of asphalt binders. This research reviewed the application of various nanomaterials, including nano silica, nano alumina, nano titanium, nano zinc, and carbon nanotubes in asphalt modification. The incorporation of these nanomaterials into asphalt mixtures has shown potential to increase the stiffness and high-tempera

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Modified Support Vector Machine Classifiers Using Stochastic Gradient Descent with Application to Leukemia Cancer Type Dataset
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Support vector machines (SVMs) are supervised learning models that analyze data for classification or regression. For classification, SVM is widely used by selecting an optimal hyperplane that separates two classes. SVM has very good accuracy and extremally robust comparing with some other classification methods such as logistics linear regression, random forest, k-nearest neighbor and naïve model. However, working with large datasets can cause many problems such as time-consuming and inefficient results. In this paper, the SVM has been modified by using a stochastic Gradient descent process. The modified method, stochastic gradient descent SVM (SGD-SVM), checked by using two simulation datasets. Since the classification of different ca

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Time-Cost Trade-off to Manage A Project in a Fuzzy Environment
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In this research, the problem of ambiguity of the data for the project of establishing the typical reform complex in Basrah Governorate was eliminated. The blurry of the data represented by the time and cost of the activities was eliminated by using the Ranking function and converting them into normal numbers. Scheduling and managing the Project in the Critical Pathway (CPM) method to find the project completion time in normal conditions in the presence of non-traditional relationships between the activities and the existence of the lead and lag periods. The MS Project was used to find the critical path. The results showed that the project completion time (1309.5) dinars and the total cost has reached (33113017769) dinars and the

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Alustath Journal For Human And Social Sciences
Obstacles to the application of electronic management in university libraries: the universities of Baghdad and Al-Mustansiriya as a model.
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The research aims to identify the obstacles facing the application of electronic management in our university libraries, including the central library of the University of Baghdad and the central library of Al-Mustansiriya University, the research sample, as they are among the main libraries that used electronic technologies in managing some of their work and in providing their services, and they have a website via the Internet. The research relied on the case study method to identify the obstacles by visiting the two libraries, interviewing their managers and employees responsible for the departments, and answering inquiries about the obstacles that prevent the application of electronic management in order to identify them and find appropr

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 07 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Ecological Engineering
Microwave assisted production of biodiesel using CaO nano-catalyst produced from mango fallen leaves extract
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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Pneumatic Control System of Automatic Production Line Using Two Method of SCADA/HMI Implement PLC
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This study focuses on the implementation of interfaces for human machine interaction (HMI) control and monitor automatic production line. The automatic production line can performance feeding, transportation, sorting functions. The objectives of this study are implemented two SCADA/HMI system using two different software. TIA portal software is used to build HMI, alarm, and trends in touch panel which is helped an operator to control and monitor the production line. LabVIEW software is used to build HMI and trends in the computer screen and is linked with Microsoft Excel (ME) to generate information table helped to monitor the performance of the pneumatic equipment. The production line can do performance feeding, transportation, sorting fun

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Biochemical And Cellular Archives
Optimization of enzymatic conversion of waste office paper using response surface methodology for bioethanol production
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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Production Load–bearing Concrete Masonry Units by Using Recycled Waste Crushed Clay Bricks; A Review
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There are serious environmental problems in all countries of the world, due to the waste material such as crushed clay bricks (CCB) and in huge quantities resulting from the demolition of buildings. In order to reduce the effects of this problem as well as to preserve natural resources, it is possible to work on recycling (CCB) and to use it in the manufacture of environmentally friendly loaded building units by replacing percentages in coarse aggregate by volume. It can be used as a powder and replacing of percentages in cement by weight and study the effect on the physical and mechanical properties of the concrete and the masonry unit. Evaluation of its performance through workability, dry density, compressive strength, thermal conduct

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Pneumatic Control System of Automatic Production Line Using Two Method of SCADA/HMI Implement PLC
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       This work focuses on the implementation of interfaces for human machine interaction (HMI) for control and monitor of automatic production line. The automatic production line which can performance feeding, transportation, sorting functions.      

            The objectives of this work are implemented two SCADA/HMI system using two different software. TIA portal software was used to build HMI, alarm, and trends in touch panel which are helped the operator to control and monitor the production line. LabVIEW software was used to build HMI and trends on the computer screen and was linked with Micros

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