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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 16 2025
Journal Name
International Journal Of Engineering Pedagogy (ijep)
Utilizing Machine Learning Techniques to Predict University Students' Digital Competence
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Given the importance of possessing the digital competence (DC) required by the technological age, whether for teachers or students and even communities and governments, educational institutions in most countries have sought to benefit from modern technologies brought about by the technological revolution in developing learning and teaching and using modern technologies in providing educational services to learners. Since university students will have the doors to work opened in all fields, the research aims to know their level of DC in artificial intelligence (AI) applications and systems utilizing machine learning (ML) techniques. The descriptive approach was used, as the research community consisted of students from the University

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 18 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Using Smart Control System to Enhancement the Split Air Conditioning System Performance
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In IRAQ, the air conditioners are the principal cause of high electrical demand. In summer, the outer temperature sometimes exceeds 500C which significantly effects on the A/C system performance and power consumed. In the present work, the improvement in mechanical and electrical performance of split A/C system is investigated experimentally and analytically. In this paper, performance and energy saving enhancement of a split-A/C system was experimentally investigated to be efficiently compatible with elevated temperature weathers. This improvement is accomplished via Smart Control System integrate with Proportional-Integral- Differential PID algorithm. The PIC16F877A micro-controller has been programmed with the PID and PWM c

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Role of the executive in federal experiences: a study of selected models
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Receipt date:06/23/2020 accepted date:7/15/2020 Publication date:12/31/2021

Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

The executive authority differs from one country to another, as it differs from a federal state to another according to the nature of the applied political systems, so this research focused on federal states according to their political systems, then going into the details of the executive authority and its role In the federal states by referring to the four federal experiments

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 14 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
Representations of the event in the drawings of the civilizations of the ancient world (selected models)
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This research is concerned with studying the representations of the event in the drawings of the ancient civilizations of the world, and the research consists of two axes, the axis of the theoretical framework, which included (the research problem, its aim, its limits, and the definition of its terminology).
The research aims to reveal how the event pattern was formulated by the artist on the surface of his visual achievement, and the limits of the search were spatial in the ancient civilizations of Iraq, Egypt, Greece and Rome, but the limits of the temporal research could not be determined because they were before birth, and objectively:
representations of the event in the civilizations of the ancient world This axis also in

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using The Maximum Likelihood And Bayesian Methods To Estimate The Time-Rate Function Of Earthquake Phenomenon
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In this research, we dealt with the study of the Non-Homogeneous Poisson process, which is one of the most important statistical issues that have a role in scientific development as it is related to accidents that occur in reality, which are modeled according to Poisson’s operations, because the occurrence of this accident is related to time, whether with the change of time or its stability. In our research, this clarifies the Non-Homogeneous hemispheric process and the use of one of these models of processes, which is an exponentiated - Weibull model that contains three parameters (α, β, σ) as a function to estimate the time rate of occurrence of earthquakes in Erbil Governorate, as the governorate is adjacent to two countr

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 14 2025
Journal Name
Revista Iberoamericana De Psicología Del Ejercicio Y El Deporte, Issn 1886-8576, Vol. 17, Nº. 6, 2022, Págs. 405-407
Bullying behavior and its relationship to achievement motivation for young football players under (19) years old
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Autoría: Muwafaq Obayes Khudhair. Localización: Revista iberoamericana de psicología del ejercicio y el deporte. Nº. 6, 2022. Artículo de Revista en Dialnet.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Study of the marketing supply chain of the fuel oil productUsing transport models
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The marketing logistic chain, as an integrated system aimed to balance the achievement of its main opposite objectives which represented in the access to the best service presented to the customer with lowest possible logistic costs especially the transportation costs, where encourages the researcher to choose the second objective as a field of this study in order to reduce the transportation costs in the final link of marketing logistic chain which related to delivering of fuel oil to the customer that falls within organizational responsibilities of the company under consideration (Oil Marketing Company) and also known in a brief name by (SOMO) through two methods, the first is by functioning quantative techniques by using trans

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The Mechanical Behavior Of Materials
Identifying the selection criteria of design consultant for Iraqi construction projects
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Abstract<p>The quality and cost of constructed buildings are heavily influenced by the performance of design/auditing consultants. Thus, selecting the right design consultant and design auditing consultants is of utmost importance and not an easy task for any construction client. so, the client should specify the efficiency criteria and assess the performance levels of the design and design auditing consultant firm. The study aims to identify the selection criteria of the design consultant in construction projects and also identify the selection criteria of the design auditing consultant for the construction projects by using the Delphi survey with applying the principal components analysis (PCA</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Significant Safety Factors Affecting the Safety Performance in Iraqi Construction Projects
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Despite recent attempts to improve safety in the construction sector, this sector is considered dangerous and unsafe. Iraq is one of the emerging nations that suffers from a lack of construction safety management. In 2018, the construction sector in Iraq was responsible for 38% of all industrial accidents. Creating a safety program minimizes this problem by making safety an intrinsic part of construction projects. As a result, this article aims to identify the crucial safety factors that affect the safety performance in Iraqi construction projects. After conducting a critical literature review of the related literature, a list of 35 sub-factors classified into nine categories of main factors was chosen to rank each facto

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 12 2022
Journal Name
Engineering, Technology &amp; Applied Science Research
Investigating the Causes of Poor Cost Control in Iraqi Construction Projects
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Controlling cost in construction projects is an essential issue. This study investigates the most critical problems that cause weakness in cost control in Iraqi construction projects. The quantitative technique was used by conducting a survey directed to professionals who work on construction projects. One hundred and sixty-four questionnaire forms were distributed to private sector companies, government companies, and government institutions, and the responses were subjected to the required statistical analysis. The results indicate that the most influential factors are the weakness in keeping up with the use of modern concepts, methods, and technologies, the delay in receiving the amounts due for work done from the owner, fluctuat

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