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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 06 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
investment in the residential sector and its finacing
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Adopting a policy of attracting investments in all countries, whether developing or developed prevailed, especially after the global crisis, and this trend is imposed by considerations of political and development (urban, economic, and social) can be formulated as a rational policy to solve many problems related to patterns of urban growth, economic, social, and including the problem of housing. As the reality of the housing sector in Iraq will require the allocation of substantial resources to promote it by the research problem is the lack of financial resources and the inability of investments to meet the various requirements including the requirements of economic sectors, particularly in the field of housing, infrastructure an

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 31 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The shield And its provisions in Islamic jurisprudence
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Since I live in a society in which violence has become widespread, and killing among its own people flared up till they began to kill under the excuse of taking shelter, in these pages I would like to explain the status of taking shelter in the light of Islamic Law (Sharia), exploring scholars’ opinions in the legitimacy or illegitimacy of this issue according to the legal standards.
And, to acquaint people, and myself in the first place, with the true nature and the gravity of this issue; to expose it to those who are unaware of it; to remind those who are already aware of it. I would refute the fabrications, remove the suspicions which surround it untill it made the forbidden permissible; the wrong right. I would explain to those

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using system dynamics model and the statistical indicators for Road Map of "Green government departments" project In Iraq
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Abstract                                                         

The issue of the protection of the environment is a shared responsibility between several destinations and sectors, and constitutes a main subject in which they can achieve sustainable development. In the sectors of government programs can be set up towards the establishment of the government sector to the green environment, so to be the implementati

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation Age and Gender for General Census of the population in Iraq by using nonparametric Bayesian Kernel Estimators
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The process of evaluating data (age and the gender structure) is one of the important factors that help any country to draw plans and programs for the future. Discussed the errors in population data for the census of Iraqi population of 1997. targeted correct and revised to serve the purposes of planning. which will be smoothing the population databy using nonparametric regression estimator (Nadaraya-Watson estimator) This estimator depends on bandwidth (h) which can be calculate it by two ways of using Bayesian method, the first when observations distribution is Lognormal Kernel and the second is when observations distribution is Normal Kernel

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 26 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Advanced Research In Hr And Organizational Management
Entrepreneurial Performance of the Organization According to the Approved Training Strategy
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The research aims to determine the role of the training strategy with its dimensions of (strategic analysis, formulation of training strategy, implementation of training strategy, evaluation) in the pioneering performance of the organization with its dimensions of (pre-planning , renewal and modernization, efficiency, effectiveness). Important and modern in pioneering performance and training strategy, and in recognition of the importance of the subject and the expected results of the surveyed banks, an analysis was made of the data obtained through field visits in addition to the questionnaire and interviews ,and the most prominent results that were reached were taking the research sample into consideration all the requirements of the trai

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Identifying the Phenomenon of monopoly according to the vision of Accounting
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The research seeks to identify the factors affecting the monopoly and the possibility of measuring the phenomenon of economic ( monopolistic profit) accounted for and that the importance of research topic arising from the transformation of the majority of developing countries to the market economy, which represents the image of the capitalist economy, which is a monopoly, a stages that economy in its various forms, whether Market Worldwide sales monopoly or monopoly, which generates absolute monopolistic profits, which more or less affect on the overall economy of those countries than they should study the phenomenon of monopoly and its impact on the economies of those countries that still love to find her site reinforces its pos

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 10 2013
Journal Name
Asian Journal Of English Studies
The Use of Restrictive Relative Clauses in Letters to the Editors
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A restrictive relative clause (RRC hereafter), which is also known as a defining relative clause, gives essential information about a noun that comes before it: without this clause the sentence wouldn’t make much sense. A RRC can be introduced by that, which, whose, who, or whom. Givon (1993, 1995), Fox (1987), Fox and Thompson (1990) state that a RCC is used for two main functions: grounding and description. When a RRC serves the function of linking the current referent to the preceding utterance in the discourse, it does a grounding function; and when the information coded in a RRC is associated with the prior proposition frame, the RRC does a proposition-linking grounding function. Furthermore, when a RRC is not used to ground a new di

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Int. J. Nanoelectronics And Materials
The response of a window glass to the frequencies of sound
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Publication Date
Tue Jan 02 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Teaching techniques due to the Brain-based learning theory among math teachers
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The purpose of the study is to identify the teaching techniques that mathematics' teachers use due to the Brain-based learning theory. The sample is composed of (90) teacher: (50) male, (40) female. The results have shown no significant differences between male and female responses' mean. Additionally, through the observation of author, he found a lack of using Brain-based learning techniques. Thus, the researcher recommend that it is necessary to involve teachers in remedial courses to enhance their ability to create a classroom that raise up brain-based learning skills.  

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 04 2018
Journal Name
Civil Engineering Journal
Finite Element Analysis of Concrete Beam under Flexural Stresses Using Meso-Scale Model
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Two dimensional meso-scale concrete modeling was used in finite element analysis of plain concrete beam subjected to bending. The plane stress 4-noded quadrilateral elements were utilized to model coarse aggregate, cement mortar. The effect of aggregate fraction distribution, and pores percent of the total area – resulting from air voids entrapped in concrete during placement on the behavior of plain concrete beam in flexural was detected. Aggregate size fractions were randomly distributed across the profile area of the beam. Extended Finite Element Method (XFEM) was employed to treat the discontinuities problems result from double phases of concrete and cracking that faced during the finite element analysis of concrete beam. Crac

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