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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A New method for ISE construction for methyl orange dyes and using for indirect determination of Amitriptyline Hydrochloried drug
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A new method for construction ion-selective electrode (ISE) by heating reaction of methyl orange with ammonium reineckate using PVC as plasticizer for determination methyl orange and determination Amitriptyline Hydrochloried drug by formation ion-pair on electrode surface . The characteristics of the electrode and it response as following : internal solution 10-4M , pH (2.5-5) ,temperature (20-30) and response time 2 sec. Calibration response for methyl orange over the concentrationrange 10-3 -10-9 M with R=0.9989 , RSD%=0.1052, D.O.L=0.315X10-9 MEre%=(-0.877- -2.76) , Rec%.=(97.230 -101.711) .

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2017
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Abu Mijlaz Al-Basri and his approach to traditional interpretation
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Research summary

 


This research discloses the study of the methodology of one of the notables of the followers, which is: (Abi Mijlis Al-Basri), who had a clear impact on many commentators after him, especially in the field of interpretation by impact. This study included two topics:

The first: his biography and scientific

The second: his methodology in the traditional interpretation.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The importance of measuring and accounting disclosure of intellectual capital To maximize the value of the company
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Most of the big companies and especially the intillictual ones become a ware of an important fact, and That is, The intillictual capital in new global economy, is a new source for Them & This Valuable source exceed in importance. The other company's sources.

The Traditional disclouser systemes are unable to supply the decisions makers with the Fundimental information require to handel the on going operations which are based on Knowledge and intangible source. But the measuring of this source and the disclose for it in the financial Statements will lead to gain features Statements which will benefit all the parties and lead to make the value of the company great.

And as a resul

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 15 2019
Journal Name
Al-academy
Characteristics of the Artistic Construction of Light and Color Focus in the Theater Performance: محمد عزيز حسن
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The theater has a living environment that resembles or realistically simulates the real life environment on the stage where we see the place, light and living being  as elements representing a picture of the life scene and for a period of time the theater merely conveyed that image, but with the development of the world industrially and technologically, the perception of this picture has evolved with the emergence of intellectual progress where  each part has advantages and  Philosophical goals that  are consistent with the evolution of form. The theatrical lighting, colors and landscapes have become parts in the composition of a new life component in form and content and based on the above this research is titled&nbs

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 07 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Baysian and NonBaysian Methods to Estimate the two parameters of Logistic Distribution
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In this paper ,the problem of point estimation for the two parameters of logistic distribution has been investigated using simulation technique. The rank sampling set estimator method which is one of the Non_Baysian procedure and Lindley approximation estimator method which is one of the Baysian method were used to estimate the parameters of logistic distribution. Comparing between these two mentioned methods by employing mean square error measure and mean absolute percentage error measure .At last simulation technique used to generate many number of samples sizes to compare between these methods.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2021
Journal Name
Applied Sciences
Leading Edge Blowing to Mimic and Enhance the Serration Effects for Aerofoil
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Leading edge serration is now a well-established and effective passive control device for the reduction of turbulence–leading edge interaction noise, and for the suppression of boundary layer separation at high angle of attack. It is envisaged that leading edge blowing could produce the same mechanisms as those produced by a serrated leading edge to enhance the aeroacoustics and aerodynamic performances of aerofoil. Aeroacoustically, injection of mass airflow from the leading edge (against the incoming turbulent flow) can be an effective mechanism to decrease the turbulence intensity, and/or alter the stagnation point. According to classical theory on the aerofoil leading edge noise, there is a potential for the leading edge blowi

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 18 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Achieve the requirements of the Administrative Control according to human resource management practices
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Human Resources Management Practices (HRMP) and managerial control represent two academic fields that have been and still are the focus of many studies. However, merging both fields and studying the relationship that connects them and also the role that HRMP play in achieving the requirements of managerial control represents a new and novel study according to the available literature in these fields.

To achieve these goals, this study has been conducted, using the surveying questionnaire method, on a sample of ten general inspector offices in Iraq that work in the field of control for ministries and independent committees. A questionnaire has been used to collect the data which was analyzed with several s

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of financial policy instruments to reduce the deficit of the State budget to the IMF terms: Applied Research at the Iraqi Ministry of finance - budget service
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Abstract search seeks to clarify the role and the importance of financial and fiscal policy adopted by the Iraqi Government during the years (2015 – 2018) to meet federal public deficit, as the Iraqi economy to shocks from falling global oil prices and terrorist attack ISIS, so the State budget suffered from a severe lack of income as a result of its reliance on revenues from selling crude oil and in return the high proportion of public expenditures. Especially military to counter these attacks that by studying the results of the implementation of budgets and analysis and statement Causes of disabilities and assessment of these policies and procedures imposed by the International Monetary Fund. the research aims to show how increased g

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Degree of Using Augmented Reality Technology among students of the Optimum Invesment Project fot Teaching Personnel Program and the difficulties they face at Al-Shaqra University
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Augmented reality technology is a modern technique used in all fields, including: medicine, engineering and education, and has received attention from officials in the educational process at present; The focus of this research is on the degree of use of augmented reality among field experience students in the project's optimal investment program for teaching staff and their difficulties, applied to a sample of 75 students, through a questionnaire prepared by the researcher as a tool to determine the degree of use, as well as difficulties. The researcher addressed the subject through two main axes to determine the degree of use, as well as the difficulties preventing teachers and learners from using this technique. The results of the rese

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