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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 08 2022
Journal Name
Buildings
An Experimental Study of Granular Material Using Recycled Concrete Waste for Pavement Roadbed Construction
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Rapid worldwide urbanization and drastic population growth have increased the demand for new road construction, which will cause a substantial amount of natural resources such as aggregates to be consumed. The use of recycled concrete aggregate could be one of the possible ways to offset the aggregate shortage problem and reduce environmental pollution. This paper reports an experimental study of unbound granular material using recycled concrete aggregate for pavement subbase construction. Five percentages of recycled concrete aggregate obtained from two different sources with an originally designed compressive strength of 20–30 MPa as well as 31–40 MPa at three particle size levels, i.e., coarse, fine, and extra fine, were test

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation of Educational Performance according to Centralization and Decentralization
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The research aims to identify the effect of applying administrative decentralization to an educational performance by assessing educational performance before and after the process of transferring powers from the federal government (the Iraqi Ministry of Education) to local governments (governorates) as well as identifying the appropriate central or decentralized administrative system to advance the educational reality and performance. To achieve the goal of the research, educational data was collected and analyzed, as well as the measurement of educational performance indicators and analysis during two phases, the first represents the stage of applying the central system and spanned between the academic year (2011-2012) and the

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Organizational socialization is an mediator to the effect of Plateaus and workaholism in employees loyalty
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The research aimed to test the effect of independent variables career plateaus and workaholism on employees loyalty through the influence of the mediator variable organizational socialization. Descriptive approach with survey style   on a sample of managers and executives in the Iraqi Drilling Company in Basra's (123) employees. The most important findings of the research are: the existence of a significant effect of the independent variables career plateaus and workaholism in employees loyalty by having a mediator variable organizational socialization and introduced numerical from recommendations.                    &nbs

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Assessment of Modified - Asphalt Cement Properties
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The Asphalt cement is produced as a by-product from the oil industry; the asphalt must practice further processing to control the percentage of its different ingredients so that it will be suitable for paving process. The objective of this work is to prepare different types of modified Asphalt cement using locally available additives, and subjecting the prepared modified Asphalt cement to testing procedures usually adopted for Asphalt cement, and compare the test results with the specification requirements for the modified Asphalt cement to fulfill the paving process requirements. An attempt was made to prepare the modified Asphalt cement for pavement construction in the laboratory by digesting each of the two penetration grade Asphalt c

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 07 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Optimum conditions for Inulinase production by Aspergillus niger using solid state fermentation
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Thirty local fungal isolates according to Aspergillus niger were screened for Inulinase production on synthetic solid medium depending on inulin hydrolysis appear as clear zone around fungal colony. Semi-quantitative screening was performed to select the most efficient isolate for inulinase production. the most efficient isolate was AN20. The optimum condition for enzyme production from A. niger isolate was determined by busing a medium composed of sugar cane moisten with corn steep liquor 5;5 (v/w) at initial pH 5.0 for 96 hours at 30 0C . Enzyme productivity was tested for each of the yeast Kluyveromyces marxianus, the fungus A. niger AN20 and for a mixed culture of A. niger and K. marxianus. The productivity of A. niger gave the highest

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 24 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
High spatial resolution digital elevation model (DEM) production using different interpolations techniques
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DEMs, thus, simply regular grids of elevation measurements over the land surface.The aim of the present work is to produce high resolution DEM for certain investigated region (i.e. Baghdad University Campus\ college of science). The easting and northing of 90 locations, including the ground-base and buildings of the studied area, have been obtained by field survey using global positioning system (GPS). The image of the investigated area has been extracted from Quick-Bird satellite sensor (with spatial resolution of 0.6 m). It has been geo-referenced and rectified  using 1st order polynomial transformation. many interpolation methods have been used to estimate the elevation such as ordinary Kriging, inverse distance weight

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Fuzzy aggregate production planning by using fuzzy Goal programming with practical application
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Research summarized in applying the model  of fuzzy goal programming for aggregate production planning , in General Company for hydraulic industries / plastic factory to get an optimal production plan  trying to cope with the impact that fluctuations in demand and  employs all available resources using two strategies where they are available   inventories  strategy and  the strategy of  change in the level of the workforce, these   strategies  costs are usually imprecise/fuzzy. The plant administration trying to minimize total production costs, minimize carrying costs and minimize changes in labour levels. depending on the gained data from th

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Risks That Facing Tourism And The Managing Methods In The contemporary Challenges Theoretical study
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Tourist business organizations face a challenging and the risks dynamic environment reflected its impact on the community and generate extra under pressure in the responsibilities and burdens of exceptional and affected much of factors, accidents and risks as a result of the actions and attitudes of disasters variety may exceed the geography of States border, which requires the absorption of risks facing the tourism and how to manage and deal with them scientific and reasonable grounds for the diagnosis and treatment of risk and how to reduce the aggravation and the different kinds.

As risks affecting the most important and vital to organizations as a tourist aspects of the market share and styles tourist

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 11 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Directing Grammarians for Grammatical Dispute To Interpret and Explain the fourth part of the Holy Qur’an
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Abstract

 The miraculous of al-Quran has been surrounded by the attention of scholars, as it is the one that has astonished the rhetoricians with its eloquence. So , they paid attention to every part of it  and hugely they studied it with accuracy in respect to its Surah  ad Ayahs.   It is considered the most important source from which Arab scholars and early grammarians drew, given their unanimity that it is the highest degree of eloquence and the best record of the common literary language.

 

Among these sciences is the science of Grammar, and without Qur’an, this science would not have emerged, which later had control over every science of Arabic

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 24 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Down syndrome construction
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Due to the increasing number of people with in Iraq, it has become necessary to treat seriously this problem, which was not considered significantly to the best of researcher knowledge. Thus, the current research aims to construct a scale to measure the physical down syndromes, which distinguish them from others. It consisted of (39) items. The researcher has presented some related literature that addressed the current problem

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