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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects

تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Budget Programs and Performance away to enhance the control in government economic units

     The control function of important functions in the system of government for several reasons , perhaps the most important of the magnitude of spending and spending in one of the tools adopted in the implementation of the control function.                               

        Perhaps the most prominent stages of the development budget in terms of setup and use in the budget programs and performance , as specialized literature  show its importance in strengthening financial and operationl

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 13 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Water And Land Development
A study of the climate and human impact on the future survival of the Al-Sannya marsh in Iraq

Polish Academy of Sciences

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 14 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of Teaching Practices of Science and Mathematics Teachers Based on the National Framework for Future Skills in the Omani School

Abstract

The research aims to identify the level of effectiveness of the teaching practices of science and mathematics teachers in light of the national framework for future skills in Omani schools. To achieve the objectives of the study, the researchers used the descriptive approach, as he designed a note card consisting of (30) phrases distributed on three axes: basic skills, practical skills, and technical skills. After verifying the validity and reliability of the tools, they were applied to a sample of (116) teachers. The results of the research revealed that the level of effectiveness of the teaching practices of mathematics teachers has recorded a medium degree with a mean (3.05). The results a

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Attitudes of banking leaders towards practicing strategic foresight and its relationship to organizational brilliance: Applied research in a number of Iraqi private commercial banks

Abstract:

               The aim of the research is to evaluate the practice of banking departments for strategic foresight represented by its dimensions (environmental scanning, future vision, scenarios, reconfiguration) and its relationship to the organizational brilliance represented by dimensions (brilliance of leadership, brilliance of service and innovation, brilliance of knowledge, brilliance of employees), as the research was applied in A number of private Iraqi commercial banks represented by (Baghdad, Iraqi Investment, Iraqi Middle East Investment, Commercial Gulf, Ashur International Investment, Al Mansour Investment, Via Iraq Invest

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The Importance of Spatial Indicators to Producing Development Plans

  The indicators were important core for any work, and may be occurring this indicators way of communicating among planers and decision makers, even also for public participating, do make any decision. The urban and regional planning is one of those science highly depending on using indictors, for two  reasons, first, way to communicating ideas between specialist and non-specialist, (politician and decision makers), the second one, this field are multidisciplinary science, so the need indictors to clearing thoughts among different backgrounds in one team, as common language.

This research tries to clear importance of GIS in forming and building Spatial Planning Indicators, to cross communication problem among planning g

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effect of Strategic Control to Avoid the Strategic Pitfalls

This study identified intellectual and applied research in key variables (Strategic Control and Strategic Pitfalls) through internal dimensions then founded the (Federal Board of Supreme Audit) is the good area for analyzing the relationship and effect between variables by (125) questionnaire selected from (148) was distributed to the top and middle management as a seniors in controlling action. Appropriate methods, statistical tools, and programs were used to enhance the basic outputs, represented as a set of Conclusions and recommendations from the real control work with a specificity of potential Pitfalls in the effectiveness impact by Strategic Control in other dimensions which Studied.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 28 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Evaluation of Rosuvastatin Effect as Adjuvant Therapy to Methotrexate on Lipid Profile and the Possibility of its Cardioprotective Effect in Iraqi Patients with Active Rheumatoid Arthritis

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a common inflammatory disease that associated with increased morbidity and mortality due to accelerated atherosclerosis. Rosuvastatin is a unique hydroxy methyl glutaryl Co A (HMGCoA) reductase inhibitor that has anti inflammatory effects.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of rosuvastatin as adjuvant therapy to methotrexate (MTX) on lipid profile and its possible cardioprotective effect in RA patients. A double blinded placebo controlled clinical trial with 8 weeks follow up periods at which 40 patients with active RA using MTX were randomized into 2 groups to receive either rosuvastatin 10mg or placebo as adjuvant therapy to MTX. In addition to twenty healthy subjects as control group.

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 15 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Warning Messages of Jeanne DuPrau’sThe City of Ember to the World with Reference to Gil Kenan’s Film Adaptation: The Theory of Conspiracy

The City of Ember is a very interesting novel that is although intended for young readers, have so many layers and messages that are misunderstood. In this research, both the novel and the film adaptation are studied with the intent to decode the warning messages that the novelist and the director tried to introduce to the audience. The research studies four vital messages; the first message is that history repeats itself for the novel has many allusions to the history of Jews and their painful holocaust and even goes back in history the days of Moses and the Exodus, the second message tackles the conspiracy theory that states nothing happens by accident and that everything is planned and connected hence comes the third message

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 04 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Use of Geographic Information System Facilities to Estimate the Evapotranspiration in Iraq According to Thornthwaite Adjusted Formula.

Iraq is facing water shortage problems due to various factors, globally ( Global warming) and regionally ( GAP project) and locally ( improper water resources management projects). In this search the global warming influence on the annual mean value of temperature and yet on the annual mean value of the evapotranspiration for more than three decades has been studied. The climate of Iraq is influenced by its location between the subtropical aridity of the Arabian desert areas and the subtropical humidity of the Arabian Gulf. The relative ascension of temperature degrees in the recent decades was the main factor in relative humidity decrement which increase the evapotranspiration values, since that utilizing a temperature-based method as i

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 03 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Efficiency of Using Ozone Gas and Heat to Control Larvae and Adult Stage of Red Flour Beetle, Tribolium castaneum (Herbst) (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae)

The effect of ozone gas with temperatures 35. 40 and 45 Celsius to control on larval and adult stages of Tribolium castaneum was tested and at time of exposure 1.0, 3.0, 7.0, 9.0, 11.0, 13.0 hours and the level of relative humidity prevailing during the test 45 ± 1%. Results showed significant differences between the exposure times, when the percentage of mortality 100% between larvae (primary, intermediate and advanced) in the treatment effect at a temperature of 35 Celsius with ozone gas at exposure time to 9.0, 11.0, 11.0 hours for the three ages respectively, and adult (male and female) in the same treatment when the three heat degrees had given ratios the total mortality reached 100% of both males at exposure time to 7.0 ,3

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