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jeasiq-1218
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Fuzzy aggregate production planning by using fuzzy Goal programming with practical application
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Research summarized in applying the model  of fuzzy goal programming for aggregate production planning , in General Company for hydraulic industries / plastic factory to get an optimal production plan  trying to cope with the impact that fluctuations in demand and  employs all available resources using two strategies where they are available   inventories  strategy and  the strategy of  change in the level of the workforce, these   strategies  costs are usually imprecise/fuzzy. The plant administration trying to minimize total production costs, minimize carrying costs and minimize changes in labour levels. depending on the gained data from th

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 24 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
High spatial resolution digital elevation model (DEM) production using different interpolations techniques
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DEMs, thus, simply regular grids of elevation measurements over the land surface.The aim of the present work is to produce high resolution DEM for certain investigated region (i.e. Baghdad University Campus\ college of science). The easting and northing of 90 locations, including the ground-base and buildings of the studied area, have been obtained by field survey using global positioning system (GPS). The image of the investigated area has been extracted from Quick-Bird satellite sensor (with spatial resolution of 0.6 m). It has been geo-referenced and rectified  using 1st order polynomial transformation. many interpolation methods have been used to estimate the elevation such as ordinary Kriging, inverse distance weight

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 20 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
THE ROLE OF PRESS ADVERTISING IN ENCOURAGING THE PUBLIC TO PURCHASE
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This research sheds light on how press advertising affects consumer behavior and draws attention to it by identifying the factors that influence the intellectual perception process or attention to it. The aim of the research was to identify the factors that help achieve the objectives of the press announcement. The aim of the research was to identify the factors that help to achieve the objectives of the press announcement. The research problem was identified in four questions that were answered through a questionnaire distributed to a sample of students of College of Mass Communication, University of Baghdad. Do newspaper advertisements meet the readers’ need to search for the req

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Transitional justice in light of the change in the Arab region
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Many changes took place in a number of Arab countries, most of which ended with the change of the ruling leadership and a new coming. The same change brought about the hopes of the people to turn the page of the past into a democracy through which to overcome the grievances of previous years and achieve justice in all its aspects. The same new grievances have been added to that precedent and justice has not yet been achieved. Here we try to address the justice that is applied in the stages of change or transitional stages, which have been called, ie transitional justice, which has mechanisms and conditions of different application between countries, each of which the conditions applied in them and through a review of these mechanisms bet

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Compare Estimate Methods of Parameter to Scheffʼe Mixture Model By Using Generalized Inverse and The Stepwise Regression procedure for Treatment Multicollinearity Problem
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Mixture experiments are response variables based on the proportions of component for this mixture. In our research we will compare the scheffʼe model with the kronecker model for the mixture experiments, especially when the experimental area is restricted.

     Because of the experience of the mixture of high correlation problem and the problem of multicollinearity between the explanatory variables, which has an effect on the calculation of the Fisher information matrix of the regression model.

     to estimate the parameters of the mixture model, we used the (generalized inverse ) And the Stepwise Regression procedure

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 29 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Electronic Payment System and its impact on the efficiency of the performance of banking: An applied research on a sample of banking sector in Iraq
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The electronic payment systems are considered the most important infrastructure for the work of banks, particularly after a steady and remarkable development in information and communication technology, Which created the reality of the work of the infrastructure for these systems and these systems also become one of the most important components of infrastructure for the work of banks, cause it is one of the most important channels through which the transfer of cash, financial instruments between financial institutions in general and banking in particular.

     In order to achieve the objectives of the research, the most important to identify the concept of electronic payment systems, and its divisions, and th

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 16 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of an Educational Program in Light Of Behavioral Cognitive Theory to Develop Efficient Response to Students Affected by Crises
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The aim of this research is to construct an educational program in light of the theory of behavioral cognitive and its impact on the development of the efficient response to students affected by crises (centers of your right to education). To achieve the objectives of the research, two scales were developed by the researcher in addition to two equivalent hypotheses were formulated. The scale contains (26) items divided into five fields; for its validity and reliability were derived based on the measure of efficient response, an educational program based on the theory of behavioral cognition. The test and the educational program were applied to a sample of (60) students from the centers of your right to education, divided into experimenta

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 02 2019
Journal Name
World Heart Journal
Assessment of the Left Ventricular Mass (LVM) among Patients with Diabetes in Relation to Age Using Doppler Echocardiography
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Background: Diabetes mellitus a major factor that has adverse effects on the vascular system and the heart. It causes an increase in cardiac muscle thickness, resulting in decreased compliance and increased peripheral arterial stiffness. This study aims to assess the left ventricular mass (LVM) and left ventricular hemodynamic changes in diabetic patients measured by Doppler echocardiography. Patients and Methods: The study included 50 diabetic patients ranging in age between 25 and 80 years, (mean age: 54.1 ± 15.10, 19 males, 31 females) and 50 healthy subjects, aged 25 to 80 years (mean age: 48.52 ± 14.45, 11 males, 39 females). Doppler echocardiography was used to assess left ventricular function. The measurements included

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 28 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The Effect of Using a Teaching Aid on Learning Backswing to Handstand on Rings in Youth Artistic Gymnastics
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               The research aimed at designing a teaching aid for learning backswing into handstand as well as identifying its effect on learning skill performance. The researchers hypothesized statistical differences between pre and post-tests in favor of the research group. They used the experimental method on six (13 – 16) year–old Baghdad club gymnasts. The researchers used the one group design in which all players perform pretests followed by special tests on the teaching aid than are tested posttests. The researchers conclude that the teaching aid positively affected learning the skill as well as the teaching aid was very good and endured the performance of all gymnasts. The researcher recommended making simi

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 28 2020
Journal Name
Innovations In Pharmacy
Evaluating Factors Related to the Abuse of Oral Corticosteroids among Community Pharmacy Customers: Using Theory of Reasoned Action
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Introduction: Although it is discouraged, community pharmacy customers can obtain oral corticosteroids (OCSs) without prescriptions from some community pharmacies in Iraq. Medication abuse is defined as the use of medication for non-medical reasons. Objectives: The study aimed to determine demographics, beliefs, and perceptions associated with the abuse of oral corticosteroids for non-illness reasons among community pharmacy customers. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in fall 2018 in four provinces in Iraq. Customers of 19 community pharmacies asking for OCSs for themselves without a prescription were administered a paper survey. This study used the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) to measure the relation

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