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jeasiq-1218
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using jack knife to estimation logistic regression model for Breast cancer disease
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It is considered as one of the statistical methods used to describe and estimate the relationship between randomness (Y) and explanatory variables (X). The second is the homogeneity of the variance, in which the dependent variable is a binary response takes two values  (One when a specific event occurred and zero when that event did not happen) such as (injured and uninjured, married and unmarried) and that a large number of explanatory variables led to the emergence of the problem of linear multiplicity that makes the estimates inaccurate, and the method of greatest possibility and the method of declination of the letter was used in estimating A double-response logistic regression model by adopting the Jackna

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Using Water Quality Index to Assess Drinking Water For AL-Muthana Project
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The water quality index is the most common mathematical way of monitoring water characteristics due to the reasons for the water parameters to identify the type of water and the validity of its use, whether for drinking, agricultural, or industrial purposes. The water arithmetic indicator method was used to evaluate the drinking water of the Al-Muthana project, where the design capacity was (40000) m3/day, and it consists of traditional units used to treat raw water. Based on the water parameters (Turb, TDS, TH, SO4, NO2, NO3, Cl, Mg, and Ca), the evaluation results were that the quality of drinking water is within the second category of the requirements of the WHO (86.658%) and the first category of the standard has not

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 02 2019
Journal Name
International Journal Of Multidisciplinary And Current Research
The security problem in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries Study on internal challenges and future prospects
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The importance of our research is that it examines the causes and sources of the security challenges in the internal security environment of the GCC countries, and aims to address the most important issues that are of great interest, namely, the issue of inter-GCC differences and addressing the issues of regional security for the Gulf region, After it is one of the most dynamic and more polarized areas for the emergence of threats and challenges because of the multiplicity of sources of threat and their complexity due to the specificity of the strategic environment and the negative repercussions it can have on the Gulf region, especially the issue of regional security of the Gulf Cooperation Council Which has become a magnet for competing i

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 03 2024
Journal Name
Adab Al-basrah
The Time Machine: Scientific Advances and Social Milieus in H. G. Well's Vision of the Future
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This study is qualitative, it illustrates H.G. Wells\\'s The Time Machine through the scientific and social framework of the Victorian Era. Wells\\'s portrayal of future societies examines the rapid technological progress and social changes of the 19th century. The analysis scrutinizes the division between the Eloi and the Morlocks, tracing the consequences of social division. To meet the objective of the study, Victorian frame of mind is utilized to examine the class struggle that is symbolized by the Eloi and the Morlocks. The analysis highlights the economic and social effects of industrialization and how Wells examines the capitalist system and its impact on human relationships and class division. The study also utilizes concepts from D

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 22 2026
Journal Name
Modern Sport
Job commitment and its relation to the behavior of citizenship in physical education teachers Directorate of Education Baghdad AL- Karkh THird Search submitted by Research
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Publication Date
Mon Jun 22 2026
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Selective Exposure Patterns to the Iraqi Daily Newspapers and Its Motives for Iraqi University Students (College of Mass Communication - University of Baghdad as a Model)
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This study examines patterns of exposure of Iraqi university students to selective daily Iraqi newspapers and the motives of this exposure, as well as its associated factors that affect the average exposure. It tries to answer several questions, including those related to the levels of exposure of Iraqi university students to daily Iraqi newspapers and classification of patterns of selective exposure to daily Iraqi newspapers and the most prominent Iraqi daily newspapers that are selectively exposed by Iraqi university students. It also examines the motives of this selective exposure and factors that increase the degree of exposure to the daily Iraqi newspapers, and the most prominent stages in which Iraqi university students find their

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Violence in late age of human life
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This study focused on the various forms of violence that aged people encounter in their late life, the significance of taking measures that enhance not only the welfare for aged people but also the influence of early stage of life and how the old age effects on people experience throughout their live. Further, the importance of raising the awareness among communities to the extent of seriousness of old age in order to teach children the right habits and traditions, which are faded away over time.  The researcher indicated that raising the avenues of collaboration among home members, social organization, and all governmental facilities will support and provide a good treatment for this group of people.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Romanian Neurosurgery
Tangential gunshot wound to the head
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Introduction. Tangential gunshot wounds (TGSW) to the head is the high-velocity bullet that does not penetrate the cranium but passes through the tissue adjoining the cranial cavity, creating a “gutter” wound and indirectly causing cerebral injury. This article presents a reporting case of TGSW to the head, discusses the mechanism underlying this traumatic injury and the possible complications resulting from it, and reviews of literature.  Case description. A thirteen-year-old schoolboy was admitted to the emergency department (ER) of the neurosurgery teaching hospital in Baghdad, Iraq, with a tangential gunshot to the head of an unknown source during civilian protests in Baghdad. In addition to a seizure attack in the ER, his

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
the response to service marketing failure
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Because of the tremendous changes in the business environment and significant growth in living standards, increased demand for services in general and about the realized practitioners in the field of service that traditional marketing strategies and models administrative based solutions to mono as the price alone does not lead to the desired outcomes with customers and even organizations as it does not apply always for the manufacture of their services unique . therefore , the need to learn marketing service order and a clear and critical to avoid failures in service and the marketing document to knowledge would avoid the organization that the failure in the delivery of service and enhances the desired response to fix it in a tim

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Publication Date
Tue May 02 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Designing compound exercises with hardware technology and its impact on some physical and skill abilities of the Airways Club players under (19) years old.
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ER Abbas, AA Jasim, Journal of Physical Education, 2023 - Cited by 1

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