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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 05 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Effect of the AgO content on the surface morphology and electrical properties of SnO2 thin films prepared by PLD technique
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Tin dioxide doped silver oxide thin films with different x content (0, 0.03, 0.05, 0.07) have been prepared by pulse laser deposition technique (PLD) at room temperatures (RT). The effect of doping concentration on the structural and electrical properties of the films were studied. Atomic Force Measurement (AFM) measurements found that the average value of grain size for all films at RT decrease with increasing of AgO content. While an average roughness values increase with increasing x content. The electrical properties of these films were studied with different x content. The D.C conductivity for all films increases with increasing x content. Also, it found that activation energies decrease with increasing of AgO content for all films.

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 08 2022
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The role of variables contact for non-state actors and opposite forces of civil social in ensuring the social peace
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Receipt date:6/3/2021  acceptance date:4/5/2021 Publication date:31/31/2021

Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

The research in the role of variables contact for non-state actors have become more influential in the current of contemporary events, that related with the reality of seeking services and providing all of that in favor of maintaining the social peace, and ensuring its empowerment in order to make peace and stability outcomes as a real fa

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Exchange Rate of Iraqi Dinar between De facto Regime and De jure Regime in the Iraq during (2004-2012)
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         The understanding exchange rate policy is fundamental in order to identify the mechanism by which works out macroeconomic, And the vital for macroeconomic analysis and empirical work to differentiate between the de facto regimes and de jure regimes, Where the proved surveys and studies issued by the international monetary fund that there is divergence between the de facto regime (Regime of exchange applied by the country actually) and between the de jure regime (Regime de jure through the documents and formal writings of officials of the central bank), And launched studies on the de facto regime (Being a the basis of evaluating monetary policy) Stabilized (peg-like)arrangements or

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Craniofacial Surgery
Evaluation of the Trephine Method in Harvesting Bone Graft From the Anterior Iliac Crest for Oral and Maxillofacial Reconstructive Surgery
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Publication Date
Mon Dec 20 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Craniofacial Surgery
The Effect of Bone Density Measured by Cone Beam Computed Tomography and Implant Dimensions on the Stability of Dental Implants
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Abstract: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of bone density value in Hounsfield unit derived from cone beam computed tomography (CBCT), and implant dimensions in relation to implant stability parameters namely the resonance frequency analysis and the insertion torque (IT) value. It included 24 patients who received 42 dental implants (DI). The bone density of the planned implant site was preoperatively measured using cone beam computed tomography. The implant stability was measured using Osstell implant stability quotient (ISQ). The ISQ values were recorded immediately postoperatively and after 16 weeks. The IT value was categorized as 35 N/cm or > 35 N/cm. The mean (standard deviation) primary stability was 79.58 (5.27) ISQ,

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 27 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Evaluation of the Genotoxicity of the Aerial Parts of Iraqi Euphorbia cyathophora on Bone Marrow and Spleen Cells in Mice
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The aim of the study was extraction of arial part of Euphorbia cyathophora constituents with methanol and evaluate its effect on mitotic index and total chromosomal aberration bone marrow cell and spleen cell in mice  200 gm of E. cyathophora fine powder was defatted then extracted by cold maceration 80% ethanol for seven days. The extract was filtered and dried in a rotary evaporator then the dried extract was suspended with water and consecutively extracted using chloroform, ethyl acetate for each. The aqueous layer was then mixed with 100ml methanol. These fractions are dried under reduced pressure to obtain the dry extract. Twenty-four Albino mice were used for the experiment. The animals were divided into four groups: Gr

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 11 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The effect of composite bonding spot size and location on the performance of poly-ether-ether-ketone (PEEK) retainer wires
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Background: Poly-ether-ether-ketone(PEEK) has been introduced to many dental fields. Recently it was tested as a retainer wire‎ following orthodontic treatment. This study aimed to investigate the effect of changing the bonding spot size and location on the performance of PEEK retainer wires. Methods: A biomechanical study involving four three-dimensional finite element models was performed. The basic model was with a 0.8 mm cylindrical cross-section PEEK wire, bonded at the center of the lingual surface of the mandibular incisors with 4 mm in diameter composite spots. Two other models were designed with 3 mm and 5 mm composite sizes. The last model was created with the composite bonding spot of the canine away from the center of t

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Publication Date
Sun May 10 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Investigation of the Biochemical and Ultrastructural Mechanisms Underlying the Antimicrobial Activity of Mimusops spp. Extracts: Antimicrobial activity of Mimusops spp.
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Antibiotic resistance is the major growing threat facing the pharmacological treatment of bacterial infections. Therefore, bioprospecting the medicinal plants could provide potential sources for antimicrobial agents. Mimusops, the biggest and widely distributed plant genus of family Sapotaceae, is used in traditional medicines due to its promising pharmacological activities. This study was conducted to elucidate the antimicrobial effect of three unexplored Mimusops spp. (M. kummel, M. laurifolia and M. zeyheri). Furthermore, the mechanisms underlying such antibacterial activity were studied. The Mimusops leaf extracts revealed significant antibacterial activities against the five tested bacter

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 27 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Investigation of the State Vectors and Prediction of the Orbital Elements for Spot-6 Satellite during 1300 periods with Perturbations
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Abstract<p>Computer simulations were carried out to investigate the dependence of the main perturbation parameters (Sun and Moon attractions, solar radiation pressure, atmosphere drag, and geopotential of Earth) on the orbital behavior of satellite. In this simulation, the Cowell method for accelerations technique was adopted, the equation of motion with perturbation was solved by 4<sup>th</sup> order Runge-Kutta method with step (1/50000) of period to obtain the state vectors for position and velocity. The results of this simulation have been compared with data that available on TLEs (NORD data in two line elements). The results of state vectors for satellites (Cartosat-2B, Gsat-14 an</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The Effect of Ceramic Thickness and Number of Firings on the Color of Two All-Ceramic Systems Measured by Spectrophotometer
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Background: This in vitro study was carried out to evaluate the effects of various veneering dentin ceramic thicknesses and repeated firings on the color of lithium disilicate glass-ceramic (IPS e.max Press) and zirconium-oxide (IPS ZirCAD) all-ceramic systems, measured by clinical spectrophotometers (Easyshade Advance 4.0) . Materials and methods: The 72specimens cube-shaped have the dimension of about 11 mm in width, 14 mm in length, 1mm in thickness, these cores divided into 3 groups according to the type of material each group have (24)core specimens. Each group had been divided into three sub-groups (each having 8 specimens) according to veneering with dentin ceramic thicknesses: as 0.5, 1, or 2 mm (n=8). IPS e.max press and ZirCAD c

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