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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Energy Conversion And Management
Simultaneous energy storage and recovery in the triplex-tube heat exchanger with PCM, copper fins and Al2O3 nanoparticles
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Publication Date
Thu May 24 2018
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
The study effect of weight fraction on thermal and electrical conductivity for unsaturated polyester composite alone and hybrid
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In this research prepared two composite materials , the first prepared from unsaturated polyester resin (UP) , which is a matrix , and aluminum oxide (Al2O3) , and the second prepared from unsaturated polyester resin and aluminum oxide and copper oxide (CuO) , the two composites materials (Alone and Hybrid) of percentage weight (5,10,15)% . All samples were prepared by hand layup process, and study the electrical and thermal conductivity. The results showed decrease electrical conductivity from (10 - 2.39) ×10-15 for (Up+ Al2O3) and from (10 - 2.06)×10-15 for (Up+ Al2O3+ CuO) .But increase thermal conductivity from( 0.17 - 0.505) for (Up+ Al2O3) and from (0.17 - 0.489) for (Up+ Al2O3+ CuO).

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 10 2024
Journal Name
Humanities And Social Sciences Communications
The mediating role of accounting information systems in small and medium enterprise strategies and organizational performance in Iraq
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Abstract<p>This paper examined accounting information systems (AIS) as a mediator between small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) strategies, including (finance source, administrative innovation, organizational culture, developing capabilities levels of SMEs, information source, development of business managers, and technological innovation) and organizational performance. In this quantitative study, 450 self-administered questionnaires were distributed to the managers and owners of SMEs using purposive sampling. Data were analyzed using the structural equation modeling (SEM) method via SmartPLS3 Software. The study offers empirical findings on the importance of AIS as a mediator, considers various factors, a</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The beginning of culturally renaissance in Arab Gulf region in the first half from 20th century
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The present paper deal with the issue of the beginning of the culturally
renaissance in emirates of Arab Gulf from 1914-1945 between tow world war
has been attracting the attention of academic about the developments in many
fields in the Arab Gulf at this time.
The paper is divided into five sections. First section, deals with the
geographic importance for the Arab Gulf region. Second section, the economic
situations in the region before and after oil. The third section, talk for social
situations, like population, tribe and tribes in society, and immigration. The
fourth section, deals with the factors of rise the culture and political in the Arab
Gulf before discovery of oil period. The five section, the cultu

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation the Role of Clinical Pharmacist on Prevents or Reduced the Medication Error in Emergency Department
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Objective: To identify the role and importance of the clinical pharmacist in the Emergency Department on prevent
or reduced the medication error.
Methodology: We collected the medical file of 3400 patients, 1400 patient's file in (A) hospital, and 1000 patient's
file in each of (B and C) hospital, who admitted to the ED, at primary weekdays between 8 am to 2 pm, and
recorded all the intervention made by clinical pharmacist through an active search in clinical charts, with analysis
of the daily medical prescription. The potential severity of harm of the medication error judged by two reviewers,
a permanent emergency physician, and clinical pharmacist based on the National Coordinating Council (NCC) of
Medication Error

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effective administrative leadership in the implementation of public policies: Analytical look at the Baghdad Provincial Council
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Abstract

      The current research aims to find out the role of administrative leadership in the implementation of public policies and their effectiveness and their ability to do so, As well as analysis and testing of influence and correlations between research variables, The researcher has the descriptive and analytical approach, And several tools used to gather information consisted of personal interviews and field visits, While distributed questionnaire tool that consists of (35) items on a sample consisting of (147) individuals formed of staff of the Baghdad Provincial Council.

The research was based on a set of assum

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Impact the Organizational downsizing in organizational health: Analytical research in the Directorate of Education in Nineveh
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This research aims to determine the extent of the contribution of organizational downsizing strategies to enhance the health of the researched organization represented by the Directorate of Education in Nineveh, and to achieve this goal, the study provided a simplified intellectual framework for the most important topics covered by writers and researchers for search variables, reinforced by an applied analytical framework for the opinions of (79) individuals responsible for the researched organization. The research adopted organizational downsizing as an independent variable that includes three dimensions represented by (reduction of human resources, job redesign, systemic strategy), while the organizational health represented th

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The impact of strategic cohesion in achieving organizational prosperity: Applied research in the National Insurance Company
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Abstract

                The research aims to shed light on strategic cohesion and its dimensions represented by (strategic logic, organizational excitement, organizational founding, organizational synergy) and measure its impact on achieving organizational prosperity and its dimensions represented by (intellectual capital, innovation, infrastructure, organizational agility, sustainable competitive advantage). The research problem emerged by raising the main question, which is: Does the management of the researched company realize the importance of practicing strategic cohesion and its role in achieving organizational pros

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2023
Journal Name
حوليات أداب عين شمس
The role of artistic elements in revealing psychological emotions in the play (Gan Riki) (Analytical review)
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Our research sheds light on one of the most important aspects of David Grossman's play, "Ricky's Garden, גן ריקי " which is characterized by its realistic portrayal of characters. Grossman gradually moves towards the inner awareness of his characters, expressing their emotions and thoughts through conversations and emotional conflicts, referring to their past and rooted background. Grossman transformed the main subject of his play (psychological depth) into a presentation and arrangement of all the elements of the play in a way that expresses emotional nature more powerfully by each child in the garden. This is reflected in their actions and words, making Grossman's works suitable for study and always of interest to specialized resear

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Status Judgment : New Insight into the Promoting Process of Entrepreneurial Behavior
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The present study aims to explore determinants of entrepreneurial behavior from perspective of social theory. It is based on model notions of (Tyler & Blader, 2003) which have focused on studying role of positively personal and social identity in motivating employees to practicing desired behavior which serves the organization in which they work. Based on these notions and previous literature, study model were built. This model explains the relationship between status judgments (perceived internal respect and perceived external prestige)  and entrepreneurial behavior. It includes three main hypotheses. The first and second hypothesis are concerning the relationship between status judgmen

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