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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
1st Samarra International Conference For Pure And Applied Sciences (sicps2021): Sicps2021
The persistence and bifurcation analysis of an ecological model with fear effect involving prey refuge and harvesting
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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
The Dynamics and Analysis of Stage-Structured Predator-Prey Model Involving Disease and Refuge in Prey Population
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Abstract<p>Start your abstract here the objective of this paper is to study the dynamical behaviour of an eco-epidemiological system. A prey-predator model involving infectious disease with refuge for prey population only, the (SI_) infectious disease is transmitted directly, within the prey species from external sources of the environment as well as, through direct contact between susceptible and infected individuals. Linear type of incidence rate is used to describe the transmission of infectious disease. While Holling type II of functional responses are adopted to describe the predation process of the susceptible and infected predator respectively. This model is represented mathematically by </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 05 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Aquatic Science
Effects of Selenium Sources and Concentrations on the Performance, Meat Quality, and Tissue Properties of Broiler Chickens
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We wanted to find out how selenium (Se) affects broiler chicken performance, meat physicochemical properties, and selenium deposition in the tissues of broilers. Each of the 96 experimental pens had 30 chickens and included a total of 2,880 one-day-old broilers (Cobb 500 strain). A factorial design of four-by-three (SY + SS) and eight replicates (SY + SS) was used for the 12 experimental treatments, with selenium levels ranging from 0.15 to 0.60 ppm and organic (SY) or inorganic (SS) sources of selenium and their relationship (SY + SS). There were no differences in performance (P > 0.05) across Se levels or sources. 106 g/day of ADFI, 63 g/day of ADG, and 1.6844 kg/kg of FCR were found to be the averaging values for these three parameters:

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 07 2022
Journal Name
في مجلة الدراسات الللغوية والترجمية
Semantic and cultural analysis of phraseological units with the names of wild animals in Russian and Arabic
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Summary:This article discusses the topic of phraseological units with the names of wild animals in the Russian and Arabic languages in the aspect of their comparative semantic and cultural analysis, since a comparative analysis of the meanings of phraseological units of the Arabic and Russian languages, detection of coincidences and differences in the compared languages, is an important method for studying linguoculturology, since phraseological units represent a reflection of culture in the language

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of 1,4-Napthaquinone (NQ) and benzophenone (BPH)on the photodegradation and biodegradation of methyl cellulose film
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The induced photodegradation of methyl cellulose (MC) films in air was investigated in the absence and presence of aromatic carbonyl compounds(photosenssitizers): 1,4-naphthaquinone (NQ) and benzophenone (BPH) by accelerated weathering tester. The addition of (0.01 wt %) of low molecular weight aromatic carbonyl compounds to cellulose derivatives films(25µm in thickness) enhanced the photodegradation of the polymer films.The photodegradation rate was measured by the increase in carbonyl absorbance. Decreases in solution viscosity and reduction of molecular weight were also observed in the irradiated samples. Changes in the number-average chain scission, the degree of deterioration and in the quantum yield of chain scission values are als

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of storage duration on the Type and concentration of aflatoxin in local paddy and polished rice.
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?Natural Occurrence of aflatoxin Bi and B2 was investigated monthly in paddy rice stored for duration of six months. Aflatoxin B| was detected at the beginning of storage. The concentration of aflatoxin Bi in paddy and polished rice was found to be (0.3 and ()) ppb respectively while aflatoxin B2 W'as not detected in both paddy and polished rice afler six months of storage, concentration of aflatoxin Bi ‘ ’ ' reached 3 ppb in paddy rice and 0.9 ppb in polished rice, while the study proved that the concentration of aflatoxin in paddy rice was higher than polished rice as a result of processing which reduce the toxin

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Bioautomation
Model for Prediction of the Weight and Height Measurements of Patients with Disabilities for Diagnosis and Therapy
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Background: Accurate measurement of a patient’s height and weight is an essential part of diagnosis and therapy, but there is some controversy as to how to calculate the height and weight of patients with disabilities. Objective: This study aims to use anthropometric measurements (arm span, length of leg, chest circumference, and waist circumference) to find a model (alternatives) that can allow the calculation of the height and the body weight of patients with disabilities. Additionally, a model for the prediction of weight and height measurements of patients with disabilities was established. Method: Four hander patients aged 20-80 years were enrolled in this study and divided into two groups, 210 (52.5%) male and 190 (47.5%) fe

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Influence of Nd and Ce doping on the structural, optical and electrical properties of V2O5 thin films
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Nano-structural of vanadium pentoxide (V2O5) thin films were
deposited by chemical spray pyrolysis technique (CSPT). Nd and Ce
doped vanadium oxide films were prepared, adding Neodymium
chloride (NdCl3) and ceric sulfate (Ce(SO4)2) of 3% in separate
solution. These precursor solutions were used to deposit un-doped
V2O5 and doped with Nd and Ce films on the p-type Si (111) and
glass substrate at 250°C. The structural, optical and electrical
properties were investigated. The X-ray diffraction study revealed a
polycrystalline nature of the orthorhombic structure with the
preferred orientation of (010) with nano-grains. Atomic force
microscopy (AFM) was used to characterize the morphology of the
films. Un-do

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 10 2019
Journal Name
Proceedings Of The Institution Of Mechanical Engineers, Part H: Journal Of Engineering In Medicine
The speed, reflection and intensity of waves propagating in flexible tubes with aneurysm and stenosis: Experimental investigation
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A localized stenosis or aneurysm is a discontinuity that presents the pulse wave produced by the contracting heart with a reflection site. However, neither wave speed ( c) in these discontinuities nor the size of reflection in relation to the size of the discontinuity has been adequately studied before. Therefore, the aim of this work is to study the propagation of waves traversing flexible tubes in the presence of aneurysm and stenosis in vitro. We manufactured different sized four stenosis and four aneurysm silicone sections, connected one at a time to a flexible ‘mother’ tube, at the inlet of which a single semi-sinusoidal wave was generated. Pressure and velocity were measured simultaneously 25 cm downstream the inlet of th

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 28 2014
Journal Name
Toxins
Co-occurrence of the Cyanotoxins BMAA, DABA and Anatoxin-a in Nebraska Reservoirs, Fish, and Aquatic Plants
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