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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Scripta Medica
The value of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI and diffusion-weighted sequence in the evaluation of endometrial lesions
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Background/Aim: Endometrial abnormalities represent a diagnostic challenge due to overlapping imaging features with normal endometrium. Aim of this study was to assess accuracy of dynamic contrast-enhanced and diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in evaluation of endometrial lesions in comparison with T2 and to assess local staging validity and degree of myometrial invasion in malignancy. Methods: Forty patients with abnormal vaginal bleeding or sonographic thickened endometrial were recruited. MRI examination of pelvis was per-formed using 1.5 T scanner with a pelvic array coil. Conventional T1-and T2, dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) sequences and diffusion-weighted image (DWI) were performed. Results: Mean age of pa

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Public Health Research & Development
The Role of Salivary Cortisol and <i>Mutans Streptococci</i> in the Development of Early Childhood Caries
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Publication Date
Sat Nov 10 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Prevalence of Anxiety and Depression Among the Iraqi Repatriated Prisoners of the Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988
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Objective: To find out the prevalence of anxiety and depression among Iraqi repatriated prisoners of Iran-Iraq war
(IRPOWs), and the relationship with some variables.
Methodology: A descriptive study was carried out from Oct. 18th, 2009 through Jan. 10th, 2010. A Snowball
sampling as a non-probability sampling technique was used to recruit 92 repatriates who had visited Ministry of
Human Rights. An instrument was constructed for this purpose. The constructed instrument consisted of six
demographic characteristics, and fourteen items to measure the level of anxiety and depression in prisoners of
war (POWs). Data were collected with using the constructed instrument and the process of the interview as means
for data col

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
PHARAOH'S CHARACTER BETWEEN THE QUR'ANIC TEXT AND THE ARABIC NOVEL: (Naguib Mahfouz's Pharaonic Novels as a Model)
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The Character is one of the elements of Storytelling, as it is the center of the plot, making it the basis on which the talk is about. The talk is the portrayal of the character while they’re acting; the novelist presents the character by interacting with the events, and the extent of the negative and positive appearing impact on the character. It should be noted that everyone has two personalities or more, each one appearing in a different position or situation. For instance, a man can be a father, a lover, an employee, a son or anyone else .. in another position, he might be a master, and in another a looser begging for the mercy of his humiliator, and sometimes he can show weakness to the one he loves, or show strength to his enemie

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 06 2022
Journal Name
Future Oncology
The first Middle East and North Africa expert consensus recommendations for the management of advanced colorectal cancer
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Publication Date
Sun Jan 13 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
The effect of short range correlation on the inelastic C2 and C4 form factors of 18O nucleus
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The effect of short range correlations on the inelastic Coulomb form factors for excited +2 states (1.982, 3.919, 5.250 and 8.210MeV) and +4 states (3.553, 7.114, 8.960 and 10.310 MeV) in O18 is analyzed. This effect (which depends on the correlation parameterβ) is inserted into the ground state charge density distribution through the Jastrow type correlation function. The single particle harmonic oscillator wave function is used with an oscillator size parameter .b The parameters β and b are adjusted for each excited state separately so as to reproduce the experimental root mean square charge radius of .18O The nucleusO18 is considered as an inert core of C12 with two protons and four neutrons distributed over 212521211sdp−− activ

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 15 2015
Journal Name
مجلة كلية التربية-المؤتمر العلمي التخصصي لكلية التربية
Investigation the Effect of Irradiation by Gamma-Ray on the Structural and Optical Properties of (CIGS) Films
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Publication Date
Fri Nov 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
The Bifurcation analysis of Prey-Predator Model in The Presence of Stage Structured with Harvesting and Toxicity
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Abstract<p>For a mathematical model the local bifurcation like pitchfork, transcritical and saddle node occurrence condition is defined in this paper. With the existing of toxicity and harvesting in predator and prey it consist of stage-structured. Near the positive equilibrium point of mathematical model on the Hopf bifurcation with particular emphasis it established. Near the equilibrium point E<sub>0</sub> the transcritical bifurcation occurs it is described with analysis. And it shown that at equilibrium points E<sub>1</sub> and E<sub>2</sub> happened the occurrence of saddle-node bifurcation. At each point the pitch fork bifurcation occurrence is not happened. </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-nahrain University Of Science
Contaminated Fungi in the Biology Department laboratories and Antagonistic Potentiality of MyrtrusCommunisVolatile oil Against the Isolated Fungi
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Publication Date
Tue Jan 30 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research
The Morphological Description and Histological Structure of the Liver in Marsh Harrier Bird in Iraq (Circus aeruginosus)
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The liver of marsh harrier grossly appeared as large, bi-lobed organ divided into left and right lobes, which are approximately equal in size and not divided into secondary lobes. Histologically, the liver of marsh harrier was found to contain numerous lobules which are not well defined by the connective tissue of the septa except that surrounded the portal triads. The parenchyma of liver composed of irregular branching cords of hepatocytes organized in double rows alternating with tortures path sinusoids which are lined with flattened endothelial cells and large, irregular outlined kupffer cells. Hepatic cords arranged in a radial pattern around the central vein of the liver lobule while in a subscapsular region they run parallel to the ca

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