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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Studying the Effect of Initial Conditions and System Parameters on the Behavior of a Chaotic Duffing System
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This work presents a five-period chaotic system called the Duffing system, in which the effect of changing the initial conditions and system parameters d, g and w, on the behavior of the chaotic system, is studied. This work provides a complete analysis of system properties such as time series, attractors, and Fast Fourier Transformation Spectrum (FFT). The system shows periodic behavior when the initial conditions xi and yi equal 0.8 and 0, respectively, then the system becomes quasi-chaotic when the initial conditions xi and yi equal 0 and 0, and when the system parameters d, g and w equal 0.02, 8 and 0.09. Finally, the system exhibits hyperchaotic behavior at the first two conditions, 0 and 0, and the bandwidth of the chaotic

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
E3s Web Of Conferences
Assessments and Historical Changes the Water Quality of Sawa Lake, Southern Iraq for the Period 1977-2020
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This investigation pertains to the evaluation of water quality in SAWA Lake, located in the Al-Muthanna province of Southern Iraq, from 1977 to 2020. Understanding the water quality and assessments of this Lake is of great importance. The Lake is home to small, transparent, blind fish measuring approximately 10 cm and is often referred to as the "wonderful" or "strange" Lake due to its many unique features. The study focuses on several elements to represent water quality, including total dissolved solids (TDS), electrical conductivity (EC), pH, and temperature (T), which were measured directly in the field. Additionally, scientific concepts such as K+, Ca2+, Cl-, HCO

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Publication Date
Thu May 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
An Evolutionary Algorithm for Improving the Quantity and Quality of the Detected Complexes from Protein Interaction Networks
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One of the recent significant but challenging research studies in computational biology and bioinformatics is to unveil protein complexes from protein-protein interaction networks (PPINs). However, the development of a reliable algorithm to detect more complexes with high quality is still ongoing in many studies. The main contribution of this paper is to improve the effectiveness of the well-known modularity density ( ) model when used as a single objective optimization function in the framework of the canonical evolutionary algorithm (EA). To this end, the design of the EA is modified with a gene ontology-based mutation operator, where the aim is to make a positive collaboration between the modularity density model and the proposed

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 28 2025
Journal Name
Magazine Aldhakwat Albedh
Ideals and values in the texts of the second century AH - Visit forty examples - Technical objective study
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Values and ideals are two basic pillars in human life, and high societies have been keen throughout their ages to adhere to and establish them so that man can distinguish good and evil, right and wrong, as they are a balance of actions that give man a higher value. Many of the followers of Abbasid literature, poetry and prose – it is noted that many imams and writers have been keen to highlight these values and make them material for their poetry and literature, courage, generosity, chastity and....All meanings of human values and there is no doubt that one of the texts abounding in this field is what was reported from the people of the house of infallibility pure (peace be upon them), including we touch it in the visit of Imam Jaafar al-

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Publication Date
Mon May 24 2021
Journal Name
Awej For Translation & Literary Studies
Embodied Oppression and Psychological Trauma: The Subjugation of O-lan's in Pearl Buck’s Novel the Good Earth
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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Research In Medical And Dental Science
The Effect of Adding Poloxamer Surfactant on the Penetration Depth of NaOCl and NaOH into Dentinal Tubules
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Objectives: The purpose of this in vitro study was to compare the effect of adding poloxamer surfactant to irrigant solutions on the penetration de..

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Publication Date
Tue May 28 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Optics
Study of the optical properties of aluminum films and the effect of current frequency on plasma parameters
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Publication Date
Sat Jan 04 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Materials And Chemical Engineering
The Effect of Atomic Percentage Selenium Content on the Permittivity and Polarizability of Ge1-xSex thin films
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Generally the a.c. conductivity shows a power law in frequency s  ()  where the exponent s ≤ 1. As the frequency goes to zero the conductivity become frequency independent. The a.c. conductivity was studied for the Ge1-xSex thin films to see how the selenium contents affect the permittivity and the permeability for the Ge1-x Sex. The thin films prepared by thermal evaporation at room temperature and under vacuum (~2 x10-5toor) using Edward coating unit model 306A. From the relation between ln conductivity and ln w, the effect of selenium contents in Ge1-x Sex thin films on the exponent value, the relaxation time and the maximum barrier height. An algebric fitting method for circles and circular arcs was used to find the permit

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 15 2015
Journal Name
مجلة كلية التربية-المؤتمر العلمي التخصصي لكلية التربية
Investigation the Effect of Irradiation by Gamma-Ray on the Structural and Optical Properties of (CIGS) Films
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Publication Date
Mon Jun 05 2006
Journal Name
College Of Education For Women
The Image of the Teacher in Selected Novels by Kingsley Amis Muriel Spark and C. P. Snow
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The study introduces the twentieth century background where the image of teacher is shaped by various factors according to the wide emergence of new educational institutions in the aftermath of the Second World War. A group of writers mirrored the influence of the war on educational institutions and accordingly on the image of teacher in their novels whose main action is set in and around the campus of a university. The genre dates back to the nineteen forties. where they show the foibles of human nature and reactions to external pressures. One of the early examples of this genre is Lucky Jim (1954). The image of teacher is swinged in many shapes from the tyrant to the rebellion to the defiant. All is personified in the characters of these

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