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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of Monthly Fluoride Content in Tigris River using SARIMA Model in R Software
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The need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2,0,0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlation coefficien

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Civil Engineering And Technology (ijciet)
Performance assessment of biological treatment of sequencing batch reactor using artificial neural network technique.
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Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model's application is widely increased for wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) variables prediction and forecasting which can enable the operators to take appropriate action and maintaining the norms. It is much easier modeling tool for dealing with complex nature WWTP modeling comparing with other traditional mathematical models. ANN technique significance has been considered at present study for the prediction of sequencing batch reactor (SBR) performance based on effluent's (BOD5/COD) ratio after collecting the required historical daily SBR data for two years operation (2015-2016) from Baghdad Mayoralty and Al-Rustamiya WWTP office, Iraq. The prediction was gotten by the application of a feed-forwa

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Second Engineering Scientific Conference
SEPARATION OF ALKALOIDS FROM PLANTS BY BULK LIQUID MEMBRANE TECHNIQUE USING ROTATING DISCS CONTACTOR
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This paper describes the transport of Alkaloids through Rotating Discs Contactor (RDC) using n-decane as a liquid membrane. The transport of Pelletierine Alkaloid from a source phase through bulk liquid membrane to the receiving phase has been investigated. The general behaviour of Pertraction process indicates that% Extraction of pelletierine Alkaloid increased with increase in the number of stages and the agitation speed but high agitation speed was not favoured due to the increased risk of droplet formation during the operation. The pH of source and receiving phases were also investigated. The effect of organic solvent membrane on the extraction of Pelletierine was evaluated using ndecane, n-hexane and methyl cyclohexane. The results sho

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 17 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Evaluation of en-masse retraction using microimplant versus conventional techniques: An in vitro study
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Background: The study aimed to investigate the effect of different techniques of en masse retraction on the vertical and sagittal position, axial inclination, rate of space closure, and type of movement of maxillary central incisor. Materials and methods: A typodont simulation system was used (CL II division 2 malocclusion). Three groups were used group 1(N=10, T-loop), group 2(N=10, Time-Saving loop), and group 3(N=10, Microimplant). Photographs were taken before and after retraction and measurements were made using Autodesk AutoCAD© software 2010. Kruskal-Wallis one-way analyses of variance and Mann-Whitney U test (p?0.05) were used. Results: The rate of space closure showed no significant difference among the three groups (p?0.05), whi

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
Evergreen
Combustion Characteristics of a Free Piston Engine Linear Generator using Various Fuel Injection Durations
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Semiparametric Bayesian Method with Classical Method for Estimating Systems Reliability using Simulation Procedure
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               In this research, the semiparametric Bayesian method is compared with the classical  method to  estimate reliability function of three  systems :  k-out of-n system, series system, and parallel system. Each system consists of three components, the first one represents the composite parametric in which failure times distributed as exponential, whereas the second and the third components are nonparametric ones in which reliability estimations depend on Kernel method using two methods to estimate bandwidth parameter h method and Kaplan-Meier method. To indicate a better method for system reliability function estimation, it has be

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Building a Reliable Steganography System Using Random Key in a spatial Domain of Image
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With time progress importance of hiding information become more and more and all steganography applications is like computer games between hiding and extracting data, or like thieves and police men always thieve hides from police men in different ways to keep him out of prison. The sender always hides information in new way in order not to be understood by the attackers and only the authorized receiver can open the hiding message. This paper explores our proposed random method in detail, how chooses locations of pixel in randomly , how to choose a random bit to hide information in the chosen pixel, how it different from other approaches, how applying information hiding criteria on the proposed project, and attempts to test out in code, and

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Measurement of Alpha Emitters Concentration in Tomato Fruits Using CR – 39 Plastic Track Detector
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Our country suffered from pollution translation as a result to the wars events, so, it is necessary to measure the amount of radiation in the fields that are of indirect contact with human life and health. The main aim of the present work is to measure the concentration of alpha emitters in tomato fruits collected from different farms in Al – Basra governorate in the south of Iraq. Nuclear track detectors of type CR – 39 are used as a detection device and Can technique as a detection technique. Results show that the maximum concentration recorded is sample no.7 of site Al – Rafidhya which was equal to (6.9621 ± 0.111) ppm and sample no.1 of site Lothan with concentration equals to (4.9236 ± 0.117) ppm. The minimum concentratio

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2014
Journal Name
International Journal Of Scientific & Engineering Research
Transition properties of γ-ray Emitted from levels in 90Mo using 𝝈 𝑱 method
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The δ-mixing ratios have been calculated for several γ-transitions in 90Mo using the 𝛔 𝐉 method. The results are compared with other references the agreement is found to be very good .this confirms the validity of the 𝛔 𝐉 method as a tool for analyzing the angular distribution of γ-ray. Key word: population parameter, γ-ray transition, 𝛔 𝐉 method, multiple mixing ratios.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Digital Signal Processing
Reverberant signal separation using optimized complex sparse nonnegative tensor deconvolution on spectral covariance matrix
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