In this study, we review the ARIMA (p, d, q), the EWMA and the DLM (dynamic linear moodelling) procedures in brief in order to accomdate the ac(autocorrelation) structure of data .We consider the recursive estimation and prediction algorithms based on Bayes and KF (Kalman filtering) techniques for correlated observations.We investigate the effect on the MSE of these procedures and compare them using generated data.
Since the beginning of the last century, the competition for water resources has intensified dramatically, especially between countries that have no agreements in place for water resources that they share. Such is the situation with the Euphrates River which flows through three countries (Turkey, Syria, and Iraq) and represents the main water resource for these countries. Therefore, the comprehensive hydrologic investigation needed to derive optimal operations requires reliable forecasts. This study aims to analysis and create a forecasting model for data generation from Turkey perspective by using the recorded inflow data of Ataturk reservoir for the period (Oct. 1961 - Sep. 2009). Based on 49 years of real inflow data
... Show MoreGumbel distribution was dealt with great care by researchers and statisticians. There are traditional methods to estimate two parameters of Gumbel distribution known as Maximum Likelihood, the Method of Moments and recently the method of re-sampling called (Jackknife). However, these methods suffer from some mathematical difficulties in solving them analytically. Accordingly, there are other non-traditional methods, like the principle of the nearest neighbors, used in computer science especially, artificial intelligence algorithms, including the genetic algorithm, the artificial neural network algorithm, and others that may to be classified as meta-heuristic methods. Moreover, this principle of nearest neighbors has useful statistical featu
... Show Moreيقترح هذا البحث طريقة جديدة لتقدير دالة كثافة الرابطة باستخدام تحليل المويجات كطريقة لامعلمية، من أجل الحصول على نتائج أكثر دقة وخالية من مشكلة تاثيرات الحدود التي تعاني منها طرائق التقدير اللامعلمية. اذ تعد طريقة المويجات طريقة اوتماتيكية للتعامل مع تاثيرات الحدود وذلك لانها لا تأخذ بنظر الاعتبار إذا كانت السلسلة الزمنية مستقرة او غير مستقرة. ولتقدير دالة كثافة الرابطة تم استعمال المحاكاة لتوليد البي
... Show MoreResveratrol is polyphenolic compound has many biochemical and biological effects on several organs. Therefore, resveratrol can be used to treat many diseases. The aim was to evaluate resveratrol safety when used in a parenteral single bolus dose. This study was conducted on 60 mice (30 males and 30 females). Each male and female mice divided into 6 groups (five mice per group). All mice groups given 1% DMSO and five different doses of resveratrol (5, 2.5, 1.25, 0.625, 0.312) gm/kg intraperitonially given to five groups respectively. The mice were continuously monitored during 14 days. The number of deaths, changes in general behavior, changes in physiological activity, and signs of toxicity were reported. On day 15 blood was
... Show MorePorosity and permeability are the most difficult properties to determine in subsurface reservoir characterization. The difficulty of estimating them arising from the fact that porosity and permeability may vary significantly over the reservoir volume, and can only be sampled at well location. Secondly, the porosity values are commonly evaluated from the well log data, which are usually available from most wells in the reservoir, but permeability values, which are generally determined from core analysis, are not usually available. The aim of this study is: First, to develop correlations between the core and the well log data which can be used to estimate permeability in uncored wells, these correlations enable to estimate reservoir permeabil
... Show MoreThe estimation of the amounts of Surface runoff resulting from rainfall in the water basins is of great importance in water resources management. The study area (Bahr Al-Najaf) is located on the western edge of the plateau and the southwestern part of the city center of Najaf, with an area of 2729.4 (km2). The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) with ArcGIS software was used to simulate the runoff coming from the three main valleys (Kharr (A and B)), Shoaib Al-Rahimawi, and Maleh), that contribute the flow to the study area. The results of the model showed that the SWAT software was successfully simulating the flow conditions based on the coefficient of determination (R2), the Nash coefficient (NS
... Show MoreEquation Boizil used to Oatae approximate value of bladder pressure for 25 healthy people compared with Amqas the Alrotinahh ways used an indirect the catheter Bashaddam and found this method is cheap and harmless and easy
Givers of foreign Audit about Social Responsibility of Profit Organization. The recent time is charcterstically with big economic Organization activities, because there are many transactions between these Organizations and different financial markets development techniques.
This encourgage business men to increase their efforts for investment in these markets. Because the Accounting is in general terms it represents a language of these Unions Activities and translate them in to fact numbers, for that there is need for Accounting recording for certain of these Organizations behavior and their harmonization with their Objectives.
In this respect the Audit function comes to che
... Show MoreFour rapid, accurate and very simple derivative spectrophotometric techniques were developed for the quantitative determination of binary mixtures of estradiol (E2) and progesterone (PRG) formulated as a capsule. Method I is the first derivative zero-crossing technique, derivative amplitudes were detected at the zero-crossing wavelength of 239.27 and 292.51 nm for the quantification of estradiol and 249.19 nm for Progesterone. Method II is ratio subtraction, progesterone was determined at λmax 240 nm after subtraction of interference exerted by estradiol. Method III is modified amplitude subtraction, which was established using derivative spectroscopy and mathematical manipulations. Method IIII is the absorbance ratio technique, absorba
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