Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

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يعد النظام التعليمي لاي بلد انعكاسا للمستوى الثقافي والحضاري للمجتمع وعادة ما يحدد هذا النظام ويوجه من قبل التنظيمات السياسية والاقتصادية والاجتماعية في المجتمع كونها تعتمد علية في تحقيق اهدافها ,وصبحت الجامعة اليوم تمثل عمد النظام التربوي والتعليمي بما تمتلكه من كفاءات وقد ا رت وامكانيات بشرية ومادية تستطيع من خلالها رفد المجتمع بما يحتاجة من قد ا رت بشرية متعلمة في كافة الاختصاصات ومناحي الحياة لادامة ال

This research seeks to try to address one of the important issues in society that prevents the state from achieving its social, economic, political and financial goals, represented by the low tax proceeds, through which it can achieve those goals. What is reflected on the tax proceeds, knowing that the General Tax Authority does not take into account the issue of analyzing the opportunity cost of corporate capital as one of the profit indicators when setting the annual controls, which leads to a decrease in the tax proceeds, and therefore the research objective will be to shed light on the importance of adopting the concept of analysis The opportunity cost by the General Tax Authority to achieve a tax proceeds commensurate with t

This work is concerned with designing two types of controllers, a PID and a Fuzzy PID, to be used
for flying and stabilizing a quadcopter. The designed controllers have been tuned, tested, and
compared using two performance indices which are the Integral Square Error (ISE) and the Integral
Absolute Error (IAE), and also some response characteristics like the rise time, overshoot, settling
time, and the steady state error. To try and test the controllers, a quadcopter mathematical model has
been developed. The model concentrated on the rotational dynamics of the quadcopter, i.e. the roll,
pitch, and yaw variables. The work has been simulated with “MATLAB”. To make testing the
simulated model and the controllers m

    لما كانت الوظيفة الأساسية للغة هي الوظيفة التواصلية ، أو التبادل الكلامي بين المخاطب والمستمع ، فكان لا بد لهذه الوظيفة من آليات – لغوية وبلاغية – يستعملها المتكلم أو المرسل للخطاب الأدبي لتوجيه ذهن السامع أو المخاطب نحو ما يطرحه من أفكار ، ورؤى ، واقناعه عن طريق التواصل ، بمضمون الخطاب واستلزام سرعة الانجاز ، وتأسيساً على ذلك جاء هذا البحث لبيان هذه الآليات في الخطاب القرآني متمثلاً في سور الطور

The study aims to use the European Excellence Model (EFQM) in assessing the institutional performance of the National Center for Administrative Development and Information Technology in order to determine the gap between the actual reality of the performance of the Center and the standards adopted in the model, in order to know the extent to which the Center seeks to achieve excellence in performance to improve the level of services provided and the adoption of methods Modern and contemporary management in the evaluation of its institutional performance.

The problem of the study was the absence of an institutional performance evaluation system at the centre whereby weaknesses (areas of improvement) and st